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Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

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Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#81

Post by dmitriid »

entropic88 wrote: post #52
rvz wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'Investing' at an all time high, is going to upset lots of late comers. Signalling a great big crash, waiting to happen.

This isn't even close to what will be the all time high. I know HN has a significant aversion to cryptocurrency (which absolutely befuddles me for the foundational societal concepts it modernizes) but love it or hate it if you think this is close to the peak you've been in a cave the last decade. *Edit: speaking about crypto as a whole not specifically doge coin. BTC and ETH first to market with digital solutions to…

> which absolutely befuddles me for the foundational societal concepts it modernizes

There are literally no fundamental societal aspects that cryptocurrencies modernize. Unless you call speculation "not modern".

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#82

Post by dmitriid »

sebmellen wrote: post #62
entropic88 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last peak was pretty much 100% retail investors like your disc golf gang. The amount of institutional investment this round offer legitimacy and absolute scale of potential that can't be overlooked by anyone that's been paying attention. Honestly, for the amount of forward thinking technologists that call this nook of the internet home, there is a ridiculous blind spot for cryptocurrency. It's actually ridiculous to…

I have been around in the crypto space for a significant amount of time (think $700 BTC) and have started two startups which use blockchain tech to a significant degree. But I am very disappointed in BTC and ETH. BTC did not become “A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System,” and we haven’t seen the explosion of uses-cases I hoped to see from ETH (like tokenization and trading of real-world assets). There’s a ton of frot…

> I hoped to see from ETH (like tokenization and trading of real-world assets)

For ETH to trade real-world assets it needs everything else that the real world already provides: laws, courts, verification systems. Hell, it actually needs that even for digital systems.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#83

Post by atweiden »

deepvibrations wrote: post #46
pavlov wrote: post #17

Also, Ethereum failed at everything that smart contracts originally promised and became a Ponzi Construction Kit.

You obviously haven't checked in on the Ethereum ecosystem recently and looked at all the innovation there...

We’ve been constantly hearing about the importance of “innovation” in the cryptocurrency space. Meanwhile, Dogecoin hits $50B after having been all but dead for a solid decade. Makes you wonder just how important Defi’s so called “innovation” is to its valuation, and how much of it is just a narrative.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#84

Post by throwaway4good »

The full tweet is actually easier to read:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1382446478539550727

WHAT WE WANT CRYPTO & CURRENCY FOR:

1) Currency w/o a government

2) Stable/reliable for contracts

3) Inflation indexed store of value -- basket of items representative for me.

4) Rapid transactions

Can we do it?

#BTC failed to be currency, open-Ponzi speculative game. A currency must earn interest: currencies weren't born from govt design but from commercial credit. A deflationary currency blocks borrowing. #BTC is just an open Ponzi scheme: money made by someone is taken from someone else.

Stephen Diehl explains it better: Because on top of the zero-sum mechanics, if it siphons wealth off to insiders then the pool to pay out returns shrinks. What @nntaleb said is right, it's economically equivalent to an open Ponzi scheme.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#85

Post by throwaway4good »

throwaway4good wrote: post #84

The full tweet is actually easier to read: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1382446478539550727 WHAT WE WANT CRYPTO & CURRENCY FOR: 1) Currency w/o a government 2) Stable/reliable for contracts 3) Inflation indexed store of value -- basket of items representative for me. 4) Rapid transactions Can we do it? #BTC failed to be currency, open-Ponzi speculative game. A currency must earn interest: currencies weren't bor…

It is the idea that money is credit / debt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_theory_of_money

As for Bitcoin. Who cares if it is a bubble or a ponzi? People make money and gambling is a part of human nature.

People are stuck at home and cannot go to the cinema. Investing in Bitcoin and watching Elon's twitter is an ok replacement for now.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#86

Post by arcticbull »

dmitriid wrote: post #82
sebmellen wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been around in the crypto space for a significant amount of time (think $700 BTC) and have started two startups which use blockchain tech to a significant degree. But I am very disappointed in BTC and ETH. BTC did not become “A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System,” and we haven’t seen the explosion of uses-cases I hoped to see from ETH (like tokenization and trading of real-world assets). There’s a ton of frot…

> I hoped to see from ETH (like tokenization and trading of real-world assets) For ETH to trade real-world assets it needs everything else that the real world already provides: laws, courts, verification systems. Hell, it actually needs that even for digital systems.

Correct. Blockchain is only able to extend its guarantees to concepts wholly encapsulated by the blockchain. That's the reason only "currencies" have been successful thus far. The boundary between the blockchain and the real world is not a surmountable one - not with the guarantees of the blockchain anyways. And once you get rid of the guarantees it's just a slow, inefficient database.

This is why, try as people might (in over a decade) they have yet to achieve literally anything that isn't a currency with it.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#87

Post by arcticbull »

senojretep356 wrote: post #53
sebmellen wrote: post #14

What's more concerning to me is the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Perhaps there is an argument to Bitcoin being a kind of "digital gold" even if it is all but useless as a currency. But events like Dogecoin hitting a $50B market cap are very unsettling to me. I used to take part in "Dogecoin Socks for the Homeless" events. It was wonderful, everyone was trying to make something good out of what we all knew to be…

Money only works because we all agree to believe in it. The book Money by Jacob Goldstein is the best thing I have read on this. It covers the useful fiction that is money and how it has has shaped societies. From the inception of coins in ancient Greece, the first stock market to current day cryptocurrencies. When people first came up with coins and paper money, don't you think people questioned their value? "At the…

> For the record I am in on crypto including Dogecoin, just as I am in on FAANG, just as I am in on index funds, just as I am in on property.

All but one of those is positive sum. One of them is negative sum.

> I honestly people not diversifying would be hubris.

There's an infinite set of things you can diversify into. Speculative mania does't have to make the list. It can, but it certainly doesn't have to.

I personally believe everyone should allocate 5% of their portfolio to GameStop. There's only 69 million shares outstanding, that's not enough for all the world's millionaires to own just two! I'm as in on GameStop as I am index funds, and real estate, and various tech picks.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#88

Post by dazc »

senojretep356 wrote: post #53
sebmellen wrote: post #14

What's more concerning to me is the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Perhaps there is an argument to Bitcoin being a kind of "digital gold" even if it is all but useless as a currency. But events like Dogecoin hitting a $50B market cap are very unsettling to me. I used to take part in "Dogecoin Socks for the Homeless" events. It was wonderful, everyone was trying to make something good out of what we all knew to be…

Money only works because we all agree to believe in it. The book Money by Jacob Goldstein is the best thing I have read on this. It covers the useful fiction that is money and how it has has shaped societies. From the inception of coins in ancient Greece, the first stock market to current day cryptocurrencies. When people first came up with coins and paper money, don't you think people questioned their value? "At the…

+1 for Money by Jacob Goldstein. An easy read and no degree in economics needed to understand.

Re bitcoin, he makes the argument that all currencies face a moment of crisis and only survive when Govt's do 'whatever it takes' to save them.

Who's going to come to the rescue of Bitcoin when that day comes, he doesn't say since the answer is rather obvious.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#89

Post by lottin »

entropic88 wrote: post #59
Crye wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if we're there yet or not, but I remember last peak I started to here about crypto in my non crypto media feeds, aka comedy podcasts. I just saw my disc golf feeds talk about crypto. I think that's a strong signal.

Last peak was pretty much 100% retail investors like your disc golf gang. The amount of institutional investment this round offer legitimacy and absolute scale of potential that can't be overlooked by anyone that's been paying attention. Honestly, for the amount of forward thinking technologists that call this nook of the internet home, there is a ridiculous blind spot for cryptocurrency. It's actually ridiculous to…

What makes you think a forward thinking person should be supporting bitcoin? The ideology behind bitcoin is anything but forward thinking.

Re: Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin failed as a currency and became a speculative ponzi scheme

#90

Post by pineaux »

dmitriid wrote: post #81
entropic88 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't even close to what will be the all time high. I know HN has a significant aversion to cryptocurrency (which absolutely befuddles me for the foundational societal concepts it modernizes) but love it or hate it if you think this is close to the peak you've been in a cave the last decade. *Edit: speaking about crypto as a whole not specifically doge coin. BTC and ETH first to market with digital solutions to…

> which absolutely befuddles me for the foundational societal concepts it modernizes There are literally no fundamental societal aspects that cryptocurrencies modernize. Unless you call speculation "not modern".

I disagree with you. Some coins like tezos and cardano or a similar coin will be a creative destructive force for many institutions. They allow for truly decentralized authority. Think passports without an issuing country. Think money without a central bank. They are building the systems to be all the things that Taleb laments in Bitcoin.
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