Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 1001 posts

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#81

Post by jonplackett »

mike_red5hift wrote: post #60
jonplackett wrote: post #18

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

Thanks! Now I'm never leaving the house again.

Haha! This was not my intention! I deliberately tried to find things that you could not worry about. I'd already seen a lot of comparisons like 'don't worry about a 1/1,000,000 blood clot, you have a 1/100 chance of getting a brain tumour in your lifetime' and thought that would freak you out more.

(It's true though by the way, go enjoy the sun while you still can...)

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#82

Post by enumjorge »

nicbou wrote: post #70
School-Cotton wrote: post #20

We’ve completely transformed human civilization in a desperate attempt to slow down the spread of this virus that kills 1 in 200 people, and now we don’t want to use one of the miracle cures because of a literal one in a million chance of issues. People are absolute garbage at thinking about scale.

Despite our attempts at containing it, it has killed roughly 3 million people worldwide. I'd say it's cause for concern.

I don’t think the parent comment meant to downplay the virus. I read it more like “we had to make great sacrifices to contain a 1 in 200 death problem but now we’re turning our noses at a cure that has a 1 in 1M serious side effect rate”.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#83

Post by majewsky »

pithon wrote: post #29
jonplackett wrote: post #18

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are, and how they compare to risks we happily take every single day. whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today. This vaccine seems to have about the same rate, which makes sense as I think it uses the same technology.

"That’s the same risk as driving London to Liverpool" This was the first one your website presented and I have no idea what it means.

I guess you may be confused by the missing "from". It should be "driving from London to Liverpool", whereas the present phrasing suggests we move a city with millions of inhabitants.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#84

Post by novaRom »

graeme wrote: post #42
sjg007 wrote: post #22

Why are women adversely affected?

If it’s an autoimmune reaction, autoimmune diseases generally are more common in women. That’s not an explanation, of course, I don’t know the reason. But it places this in a larger category.

Yes, new analysis of those deadly issues with AstraZeneca shows it's autoimmunity:

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/vaccine-induced...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#85

Post by fit2rule »

cheph wrote: post #34
DangerousPie wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. That is completely untrue. This vaccine has been through several clinical trials for months. We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern. The reason we are only seeing this one now is that it is so rare.

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?

It hasn't been established yet.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#86

Post by [deleted] »

ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#87

Post by abduhl »

mhb wrote: post #74
refurb wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the thing. A similar issue was seen with heparin a decade or so back. Basically the heparin molecule (an impurity I believe) was causing an immune reaction that cross reacted with a protein that activates platelets. Not a minor side effect and until the full extent of the issue is known (who is at high risk? How do we treat if it happens) I don’t blame them for being cautious.

Your sympathy for them being cautious begs the question of whether the vaccine, with its uncertainty, is worth using. The cost of waiting to use it is significant - people will die from COVID. It's not enough to say you're being cautious. You have to explain why you think it is better to be cautious about administering the vaccine with its attendant risks or to pay the QALYs incurred by the delay when people who woul…

All of a sudden we need a QALY analysis to justify an immediate reaction from the government? Things sure have changed in the past couple hours when it comes to What people think is required of America’s COVID19 response.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#88

Post by octopoc »

DangerousPie wrote: post #24
Eduard wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is kneejerk statistics 101 reaction. * Hormonal birth control - years of research. Years of evidence and practice. Knowing what to do when this and that happens. Recommendations for women with known conditions not to take this and that hormonal birth control. * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. I'm fine with anyone to make a decision o…

> * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. That is completely untrue. This vaccine has been through several clinical trials for months. We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern. The reason we are only seeing this one now is that it is so rare.

> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern

No, we can't know that. Some affects don't show up for a long time. One example is women.

Women's bodies are complex because they go through so many changes. These changes affect how they respond to medical treatments. In other words:

- Just because pre-menopause women respond well doesn't mean post-menopause women will.

- Just because pre- or post-menopause women respond well doesn't mean women who are going through menopause respond well.

- Just because non-pregnant women respond well to the vaccine for a month doesn't mean that pregnant women will respond well.

- Just because 6-month pregnant women respond well doesn't mean 3-month pregnant women will respond well.

- Any issues with the vaccine during pregnancy may not show up until after the child is born.

- Women's hormones are fluctuating wildly at the beginning and after pregnancy. These are also times that need a lot of representation in the study.

In fact, the amount of change women's bodies undergo affects medical treatment so much that many clinical trials deliberately under-represent women to simplify the study, and then use the results of the trial to recommend prescriptions for women.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#89

Post by lsllc »

ghaff wrote: post #45
lsllc wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like people in the low-risk tier might be more likely to get J&J. Firstly, it's just the one shot and secondly, people who are worried about COVID are vaccine shopping because they want the perceived "higher efficacy" of the mRNA vaccines vs J&J (whereas lower-risk people might be more interested in vaccine passports than preventing symptoms).

Maybe. In a lot of places you don't really have a choice and, in the US, AFAIK the mRNA vaccines are more common. Also, while "vaccine passports" have started being discussed, they're not really a factor yet--given how many people still need to vaccinated--and may never be outside of scenarios like schools. (That said, I have heard people who see getting a vaccine as more pro forma saying they prefer J&J because it's…

It's pretty easy to "vaccine shop" (if you care about it) at least in the US with all of the scheduling being done online. Sure, if you go to one of the big vaccination sites, you may not get a choice, but it seems that sites offering J&J have been advertising that and ones that don't indicate seem to be Pfizer & Moderna (or if J&J, give you a choice, at least around Massachusetts).

J&J is also widely used in the US for people who might have issues with scheduling a second shot, for example people who are homeless, or are home-bound.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#90

Post by novaRom »

ceejayoz wrote: post #72
novaRom wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now we don’t want to use one of the miracle cures We want if there are safer options. Not all vaccines are equal. Important question is why we unable to scale up production of mRNA vaccines?

> Important question is why we unable to scale up production of mRNA vaccines? Where are you getting the idea that we can't? Hundreds of millions of doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have already been made. Pfizer expects to make 2 billion doses this year.

Why only this 2 companies? Why don't we mobilize all pharma of the world to produce more mRNA vaccines quickly? Intellectual property? I think it's an extraordinary time so we should all agree to vaccinate all earthlings quicker is much higher priority than commercial interests.
Post reply on HN