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Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

blog.waymo.com

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Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#81

Post by BoorishBears »

Bancakes wrote: post #68
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If studies show that automatic emergency braking cuts down on deaths overall, I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff -- I'd even be happy to have it be mandatory/non-disableable. It sounds like the car you were driving had some kind of defective implementation of automatic emergency braking. That doesn't invalidate the good that these types of systems do when implemented properly. Also I'm wondering what kind of situatio…

It's not a worthwhile tradeoff because erroneously functioning humans are still there, and this tech enables them! Today it's crashing a car, tomorrow it's forgetting to walk your dog or pick up your kids. Mindless humans are the problem and auto braking is just a band aid. By all means, if auto braking (and in the future - auto driving) is enabled, there must be an option in the OBDII interface to disable it.

You're surely one of them though, no?

There's not a single person who can claim they've never been distracted while driving.

People hear "distracted" and their minds go to texting and their virtue signaling goes to 11... case in point

Realistically humans are easily distracted. Distracted can be an errant thought, a random sight, a bad mood, literally limitless possibilities for why our brains would wander from the task at hand.

I don't have a problem with saying automatic breaking should be controllable, but the diatribe about mindless humans... we're all mindless humans.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#82

Post by Bancakes »

BoorishBears wrote: post #81
Bancakes wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a worthwhile tradeoff because erroneously functioning humans are still there, and this tech enables them! Today it's crashing a car, tomorrow it's forgetting to walk your dog or pick up your kids. Mindless humans are the problem and auto braking is just a band aid. By all means, if auto braking (and in the future - auto driving) is enabled, there must be an option in the OBDII interface to disable it.

You're surely one of them though, no? There's not a single person who can claim they've never been distracted while driving. People hear "distracted" and their minds go to texting and their virtue signaling goes to 11... case in point Realistically humans are easily distracted. Distracted can be an errant thought, a random sight, a bad mood, literally limitless possibilities for why our brains would wander from the t…

Interesting you should ask that, I had a lot of problems in college with distraction so it's something of a goal to be concentrated outside my house. Call it a coping mechanism.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#83

Post by [deleted] »

robbmorganf wrote: post #11

1) Would a random driver (random steering and throttle) also have avoided these crashes? It seems like they were fatal because several variables coincided very exactly, and really any other input would have avoided them. 2) What input is the Waymo driver using here? If these were not originally Waymo cars, then is it perceiving simulated video or getting raw access to ground truth vehicle positions?

[deleted]

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#84

Post by tonyedgecombe »

bumbada wrote: post #76

They can use it to start fixing the roads, not the cars. Just look at the cross intersection they use as an example, typical of the US. The ROAD is the death trap there. People are crossing each other at high speed, this is the BUG, and should be fixed. The proper solution is putting there a roundabout, and you will have instantly less fatal accidents. The US was the first to use roundabouts, but those early designs…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra_0DgnJ1uQ shows an alternative approach to regular accident spots.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#85

Post by mschuster91 »

spike021 wrote: post #20
Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

> I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant.

The problem: on long stretches of road, especially with tunnels or trees acting as side wall, human biology gets in the way - we literally don't perceive stuff happening properly anymore (and as usual, German has a word for it: Tunnelblick, tunnel vision). The additional factors of people being (too) tired to drive or stressed out by children, traffic jams etc. also won't disappear no matter how much enforcement there is... the only thing that enforcement can suppress is phone usage and drug usage.

Better safety systems save lives!

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#86

Post by Gys »

hardtke wrote: post #35
mindvirus wrote: post #17

This is really cool. I suspect that when we have self driving cars, it's going to take off very quickly due to insurance. In particular, if you are in a non self driving car and in an accident with a self driving one, it'll be hard to not be shown as at fault. So insurance I would guess go up based on the percentage of self driving cars, and likely be really cheap for self driving cars. I wonder if there's a period t…

I suspect the adoption process will be slow because consumers really don't want this product. Self driving cars will drive the speed limit and infuriate both other motorists and their owners who are getting passed by speeding human driven cars. There will also be well publicized stories of the few times that self driving cars perform worse than humans. All drivers think they are above average and therefore the statis…

When I was young people would never buy a car with automatic gearing because that was not cool (in Europe).

I remember the first mobile phones and everybody said that will stay niche, because why would you need to call if not at home? (Except sales people)

Convenience is a very, very strong motivator.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#87

Post by [deleted] »

nsomaru wrote: post #54
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If studies show that automatic emergency braking cuts down on deaths overall, I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff -- I'd even be happy to have it be mandatory/non-disableable. It sounds like the car you were driving had some kind of defective implementation of automatic emergency braking. That doesn't invalidate the good that these types of systems do when implemented properly. Also I'm wondering what kind of situatio…

I’m getting downvoted for voicing my opinion on a darling HN technology, is that it? Next time I’ll just keep my mouth shut (as I usually do because of the downvote brigade). This time, I’ll bite. I guess you guys have never driven in Africa. Or Asia. Braking is not always the best course of action is actually dangerous in some situations. Like if I can see someone screaming up behind me in the fast lane, there’s a c…

[deleted]

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#88

Post by intended »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #44
nsomaru wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No thanks. I drive an aged car and drove a friends recent Mercedes long distance. The thing has a feature where it breaks where it thinks it’s good to break, often just when I need to accelerate to get out of a tight spot. I need the vehicle to respond to my inputs directly, not mix my inputs with what it thinks must be done. It’s extremely unpredictable and it feels like I’m not in control of the car.

If studies show that automatic emergency braking cuts down on deaths overall, I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff -- I'd even be happy to have it be mandatory/non-disableable. It sounds like the car you were driving had some kind of defective implementation of automatic emergency braking. That doesn't invalidate the good that these types of systems do when implemented properly. Also I'm wondering what kind of situatio…

If you look at driving patterns in developing nations it’s not the same as in America.

Driving data is cultural data, not some inviolable aspect of the physical world.

There is nothing that stops the behaviors in, say India, from happening in America. Which means everything from stray cows on the road (farm escapee) or people driving in the wrong lane.

This is also before we get to things like thieves who work in gangs during heavy traffic.

Non standard human behavior will become more needed if you start reducing the more common cases where humans screw up.

Side note - I don’t look forward to the moment in this conversation where government decides what patch firms must put out, or begins asking for access to control car behavior during emergencies - the last of which is a fair ask.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#89

Post by tonyedgecombe »

ufmace wrote: post #42
saalweachter wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the semi-annual reminder to everyone that you are probably following too closely, and this is exactly why you shouldn't. The rule of thumb is that you want 3-4 seconds between cars, which at highway speeds is 80-100 meters or yards. Yes, almost no one leaves that much room. That's part of why so many accidents happen. It's easy for you to do better.

Maybe not so easy. In my experience, in any even moderately heavy traffic, if you try to stay that far behind anyone, then other cars will constantly move into that empty space.

That's fine.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#90

Post by tonyedgecombe »

visarga wrote: post #48

Other humans put in place of the ones who caused the accidents would probably have a similar high avoidance rate. It just shows Waymo was better than a small sample.

Would they spot someone running a red light at speed? I imagine most drivers are just waiting for green and doing nothing more than that.
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