81–90 of 830 posts
We're truly witnessing an extraordinary paradigm shift in human history.
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All the Y Combinator companies combined have created value. What has Bitcoin created? I struggle to come up with an answer which isn't overwhelmingly just a way to fund illicit activities, for which sure there's always been a market, but it's a far cry of it's origins. Who actually uses bitcoin for transactions today other than extortionists hackers and drug dealers? Everyone who owns is just planning to HODL and hop…
I am neither a drug dealer nor an extortionist. I used bitcoin to buy a router from Newegg a month ago.
Now I'm not sure that crypto coins without being jacked up by central banks (like gold was during the great depression) are a powerful enough force to cause the type of havoc that gold did.
Then again, the potentially stronger network/memetic effects of cryptocoins, along with the amplification factor from markets being synchronized through instant all-encompassing global communications nowadays might make them dangerous to the economy even without central bank involvement. We saw how much people can get hypnotized by these things during the Gamestop episode. I don't think unsophisticated investors' hoarding is enough to cause big problems but it is a bit unsettling that Tesla and other companies are jumping on the cryptocoin train. If enough businesses follow suit, you get into scary territory (It would also be worrisome if companies widely moved to add billions in gold to their balance sheet but I thought the lesson had been learned in the 1930s with gold).
In theory, if central banks stay stimulative enough through all this, you can have growth in both crypto and businesses. As long as these central banks don't blink at the sight of what may look like crypto bubbles.
Bitcoin still isn’t worth $1 trillion, which is the value of one large tech company. I think bitcoin is useful and important enough to be worth several large tech companies. Therefore, not selling! Onward to 100k.
Bitcoin still isn’t worth $1 trillion, which is the value of one large tech company. I think bitcoin is useful and important enough to be worth several large tech companies. Therefore, not selling! Onward to 100k.
My thought experiment to verify this is simple: Tomorrow bitcoin disappears. What happens? Tomorrow FAANG disappears, what happens? I don't think it is controversial to say that Bitcoin is NOT as impactful as you are stating. Of course lots of money will be lost, but practically no industry is dependent on Bitcoin so the rest of the world will not notice. So then I am not sure how you can say Bitcoin is so valuable.
So does it make sense to put in some money that I’m okay with losing now or have I missed it?
If the cycle continues like it has a few times now, there will be a big crash / correction, things will be very quiet around BTC / Crypto again for a few years, and then the next surge will happen.
Not financial advice, but if you have BTC, sell now - or sell half, whatever. At least make sure you have your investment back. If you don't have BTC, don't expect to earn 10x your investment. I'd wait for things to settle again, buy, and hold for a few years. Then if things go crazy again, sell off a part.
And of course, don't be hard on yourself if the price keeps going up; you cannot know if it will. Take what you can. Greed is what makes people lose all their money.
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Your feeling is IMO the norm for lots of folks. I have had this conversation with many a friend, who actually view Bitcoin as a Ponzi, and therefore decide not to play the game (a ponzi ca be lucrative if : a) you know it's a ponzi b) you're smart in your timing and not too greedy but it's still a crapshoot). The real questions are: - what if it isn't a Ponzi ? - how much will your "won't touch it with a 10 feet pole…
It hasn't costed me anything though since I never spent or gained a cent on/off of BTC.
Opportunity cost is likely better.
I'm patiently waiting for the dismissals (it's just a fad like tulips or beanie babies), the negative permabulls (it's evil because people can use it to buy drugs / not pay taxes, it can't do as many TPS as Visa, it's bad for the environment...) while laughing all the way to the bank. Crypto is the HN equivalent of what the ipod was to Slashdot: "lame" to the people who think they are the typical user, who declare th…
Cool. You got rich. Good for you.
Why does that in any way make criticisms of environmental impact less legitimate? Loads of people have gotten rich off of systems that have unpriced negative externalities. You aren't the first.
I hope that you use some of your newfound wealth to give to effective charities and help the world.
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I know. I'm retired thanks to crypto. I'm glad I eventually saw how HN was wrong and learned from my mistakes. It did cost me bit of time-opportunity, but there's a point where you have "enough" and it's not worth chasing more money anymore.
> I'm retired thanks to crypto. I'm glad I eventually saw how HN was wrong I don't understand this argument. Becoming rich doesn't prove you right. A technology becoming popular doesn't make it good.
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It hasn't costed me anything though since I never spent or gained a cent on/off of BTC.
Cost is probably not the right word. Opportunity cost is likely better.