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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

81–90 of 667 posts

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#81
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said it wasn't a concern, I said it wasn't the biggest concern. If all the gas stations around your house disappeared, would your first concern be how you are going to get to Indianapolis? No. It's going to be how are you going to get work/school/etc everyday (assuming you don't work in Indianapolis). EVs have an issue where most drivers have to own their own gas-station equivalent. And people without the spa…

Both things are concerns, at least when you get to longer trips on secondary roads in rural areas.

But again, concerns over range are really just a type of concern over public charging capacity.

If the people who drive those roads regularly can charge on public chargers, then people driving through on long trips also have the ability to charge there. Thus range isn't a concern.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#82
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been mapping Michigan gas stations on OpenStreetMap so I have some data ready at hand here. Wayne County, which is essentially all part of the Detroit metro area, has more than 800 retail fuel establishments licensed by the state of Michigan. (I don't think my point particularly rests on how the Detroit metro is defined; Detroit itself has 349 gas stations)

Well, OK, but I'm not sure that really reflects the subject under discussion (a recognized place with a sign or whatever where you know you can drive in and fill up). I mean, to be glib: I have no Detroit-area GIS experience whatsoever, but I can type "gas station" into a Google Maps search for the area and count how many flags I see. And it's absolutely not 800. Indeed, it looks like 40 or so. Surely there are techn…

Based on having reviewed a bit more than 1/2 of the ~4000 in the state, they are almost all gas stations with a canopy and convenience store.

There's some older places with no canopy and some boat and rec fuel sales, but a few dozen.

Michigan likely has "lots" of gas stations, as regulation has historically been friendly to personal vehicles, but I wouldn't take Google as gospel.

later: the Google results appear to be paginated to ~20 results at a time.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#83
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a depleted battery pack means less range or costly repair, etc. This has actually stopped me from buying a used EV in the last year, twice. Dealers aren't up front about used cars history in general, and, again from just the two I looked at, they are 1000% hiding any information they can regarding the battery packs. This is the largest hurdle to the used car market (after the shortage of used EV's because of their n…

The computer on an EV will tell me the state of the battery. You can ship an ICE over to the best mechanic in the world, and that mechanic won't be able to reliably tell you state of, for example, the bottom end bearings. Not without cracking the engine open, anyway. A compression test will reveal a lot, but it could still break a piston ring tomorrow. That said, I'd not hesitate to buy a Honda with over 100K miles o…

Leak down test, oil pressure, opening the filler cap for blow by, sound... Plenty of accessible options there that will diagnose a bad bottom-end or piston rings. Further, your average Joe can replace crank bearings in an afternoon and many could re-ring an engine with some help from youtube. Your average Honda will need this once every 200-400k miles (14-25 average 14k driving years) with proper oil changes.

There are a lot more components (cells) in a battery pack than rotating components in an average engine. I'm unsure if they're generally individually addressable, but I know they're not designed to be serviced at the cell level. That has you replacing the battery pack any time there is a problem, a many thousands of dollars adventure just in parts. There's also no major differentiator from a software perspective between "the battery is old and has reduced capacity" and "the battery is swelling and has reduced capacity". The latter could lead without warning to a catastrophic failure that would make a ringland failure laughable.

I do appreciate your view is held by many consumers who purchase a new or certified pre-owned car every N years. For those in lower income brackets (including most countries in the world) or who like to buy things that last, electric cars don't seem to carry a huge value proposition over a traditional ICE car.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Few people regularly drive more than 300 miles in a day. Most people drive less than 50 miles a day. The fact that you start every trip will a full charge means you only worry about range on the longest trips.

And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around. This is a non-starter for a lot of people.

> And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around.

I don't think this is the way EV owners deal with long trips.

Most Tesla owners seem to just use the Supercharger network and deal with waiting 20 minutes instead of 5 minutes. After 4 hours driving I usually take a lunch or dinner break regardless.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#85
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city) That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the reasons we're all addicted…

The real issue is charge times. Gas fillups take a few minutes at most - meaning no long lines. Once charges are close to that speed I think EVs will really take off.

Tangentially gas cars are convenient because you just don't have to think about the length of your next trip: there will be gas available wherever you go. Long trips with an EV require planning due to missing infrastructure, longer "fueling" times, and shorter ranges.

But if we break out off the assumption that you can go anywhere any time in your electric car because there's another option available (rental? ride sharing? public transportation?) and EVs are at least for now meant for shorter trips then it becomes less of an issue.

But you're right - the freedom to just hop in an EV and go isn't here yet. I look forward to when it is. Can't come soon enough for me.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#86
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. One might think this to be the case, but the breakdown of new car buyers shows about the same % of buyers make 100k (roughly 1/3rd in each cohort, but varies based on vehicle type). Sadly, many of those buyers will take out out a 72-84mo loan that they probably can't afford in order to pay for that new car.

We priced out pickup trucks recently for shits and giggles (because we live in rural america and really have a decently often use for one). They're so expensive. And the dealer pushes the 84+ month loan to bring the payment down. Like, I get that it's a $450/month payment, and that's supposed to sound reasonable (it isn't reasonable, at 3/4 the cost of our mortgage). But it's for 8 years! There's no way this truck is…

Don't forget full coverage insurance for the length of the loan. The insurance companies must love pickup buyers.

I will say that most 3/4- and 1-ton pickups will last 10-20 minimum under "farm life" conditions if maintained. This said, maintenance isn't cheap.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#87

Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.

Well yes and solar isn’t a great solution for arctic areas in the winter. There’s rarely a single blanket solution that works everywhere.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Few people regularly drive more than 300 miles in a day. Most people drive less than 50 miles a day. The fact that you start every trip will a full charge means you only worry about range on the longest trips.

Unless you forget to plug in, then the fix is not as simple as hopping to the gas station. Or you live in an apartment building with only public outdoor parking, then you can just forget about EV, unless you want to WFChargeStation.

> Unless you forget to plug in, then the fix is not as simple as hopping to the gas station.

Forgetting to plug in will rarely be a big issue unless you forget 3-4 days in a row. Flipwise, there have been many times where I've forgotten to fill up before coming home and had to make a side-trip to a gas station before heading out.

As for apartment dwellers. The economics of EVs for people without access to home charging are pretty different you miss out on one of the biggest benefits -> rarely having to fill up.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#89
The major problems with EV that will keep me from buying one in the foreseeable future are:

* Low range, combined with a lackluster charging infrastructure. I think from my list this is the closest issue to being resolved, if I could consistantly get 800km range (in real world usage, not "800km in the brochure but actually 400km in real life") it would be fine because (1) with such a long range the risk of having to recharge multiple time on a single journey is fairly small, thus reducing the inconvenience [assuming one can charge at home or work, otherwise recharging will always be a pain in the butt regardless of how you look at it] (2) it's enough to cross "charging station deserts", areas where inevitably there will be little to no charging infrastructure (see the charging stations on french highways for reference, recharging is just as expensive as refueling and the charging stations don't even work reliably).

* A large segment of the EV market is made of cars that remind me more of technological gadgets than proper vehicules. I have very little patience to deal with technology and I certainly don't want my car to be basically a software platform. I shouldn't get angry before bed time but I'm still going to mention the privacy aspect of it. Having SIM cards embedded in every car is bad enough already but at least with the more traditional "analog" cars you can give the manufacturer the benefit of the doubt that the SIM card is only activated in case of accident. Most EV cars lift the doubt by collecting analytics and installing software updates remotely. One day there will be a data breach and everywhere you've ever been with your car will be free for the general public to see. Even worse, a malicious actor gets a hold of the manufacturer's private key and can push arbitrary updates to your car.

* Most charging networks (I'm tempted to say "all" because I've never seen an instance where it wasn't the case, but again let's give the benefit of the doubt) are basically spying networks that require an account and a credit card to use. Someone (everybody once there's a data breach) knows everytime/everywhere you recharge your car, how much you used since your last charge, etc. Why can't we just pay cash for, say, $10 worth of electricity just as we do with ICE cars?

I believe the first point will be solved in a relatively near future because it's mostly a matter of improving the technology a bit (or paying more for a bigger battery). For the two last points however I only see things getting worse since the current trend is to go further and further in this "everything as a digital service" direction.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#90
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both things are concerns, at least when you get to longer trips on secondary roads in rural areas.

But again, concerns over range are really just a type of concern over public charging capacity. If the people who drive those roads regularly can charge on public chargers, then people driving through on long trips also have the ability to charge there. Thus range isn't a concern.

In the early days of ICE vehicles, range would have been a concern. After all, horses can eat almost anywhere and there was plenty of infrastructure (hay barns) available.

The solution to range for an ICE is "carry more fuel". I can load my truck bed with 500 gallons of fuel and tow 1000 more without taking a significant mileage penalty and drive 2/3 of the way around the world. An exaggerated scenario, to be sure, but the concept holds on smaller scales and is a valuable ability for many.

What does an electric vehicle offer for someone in the USA's mid-west, Canada's far north, or the Australian outback where a vehicle may need to travel for days off road without seeing civilization, possibly while maintaining heat for survival or running equipment via e.g. a PTO?

Edit to add a reply to your earlier comment: The majority of consumer uses of ICEs at the moment is commuting, agreed. Governments aren't talking about banning the majority of ICE sales. What fills the hole?

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