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LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

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Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#82
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might be a nice time to short, that is if there is someone willing to be on the other side of that trade.

There always is.

If you want to know, I tried shorting it at 110 just for the heck of it. tdameritrade says 'this stock not available for short sell'.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#83

Can someone explain why stock opened at $83 when it was offered for $45.

When a new issue is offered to the market, after it is priced but before it actually starts trading, all of the buyer and seller interest is consolidated to determine what price point would result in there being an equal amount of buying and selling. And that becomes the opening price.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#84
post #65
post #42

It's August 1995 again! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape#Early_years

Those who downvote the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

And what lessons are they?

People should educate everyone on why we have a bubble with arguments instead of shouting "bubble! bubble!", every time people discuss the finances of start-ups.

Hitler! 1984! Communism! Statements aren't arguments.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#85
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you mean the underwriters of the IPO are not subject to a lockup period? that seems unusual, but I'd believe it I guess.

They probably are, but what I mean is they could use some 3rd party to short their own shares. We're talking about people that can rob the US government of a trillion dollars in plain sight.

what 3rd party? banks usually are the third party in these sorts of transactions.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#86
post #19
post #2

Almost $100/user, not even including active users... that is insanity.

If* LinkedIn becomes a key part of most companies' recruiting process, then it's undervalued. (* Yeah yeah, right now it's not)

I don't think it is a matter of if, rather "when". Recruiters I know much prefer to find candidates on LI vs Monster and other services and I have a feeling this is only going to broaden and the appeal will continue to rise as future offerings and updates to employers likely roll out.

And, agreed that a price tag of $100 a head, if you will, is cheap in terms of value for marketing and recruiting/employment services.

On a side note, how I let this fall from my radar to get in on the rush at the bell and sell by lunch is beyond me. I hope others here weren't so lazy and picked up some cash.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#87
post #21
post #5

LinkedIn made $15 million dollars last year, and they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO. And, this IPO values LinkedIn at somewhere close to 6.5 billion dollars. A valuation of 6.5 billion dollars on $15 million net income. Let that sink in.

>>*"they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO" No, that's not how it works. LinkedIn priced their IPO at $45/share, meaning they raised $352.8 million. The share price right now has no impact on how much money they raised.

Good point, although the original point still stands: $352.8 million on last year's $15 million. Of course, stock price is a prediction of the future, not necessarily a comment on the past.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#88

Can someone explain why stock opened at $83 when it was offered for $45.

Sure, and IPO is essentially a sale of an unpriced piece of equity. Nobody knows really how much its worth but as with earlier funding rounds various techniques try to estimate the value going out the door. That value is the combination of "price per share" * "total outstanding shares" so the total value of the company.

The company registers to sell a certain number of shares, this is additive to the total number outstanding, so once you have what will be the new total, and what you think will be the value of the company, you divide value by total and that is your price per share.

Then you go out on a 'road show' where you talk to various other banks and other investors and you say "We think the company is worth between X0$ and X1$ for these reasons and that is a share price of between $Y0 and $Y1, would you be interested in buying shares?" and they may say "Not really." or "Sure we'd love to by n shares at $Y0 and maybe n1 (often less than n) shares if it was at the high end of $Y1"

Now at some point on this road show, if you're good and the company's prospects look great, you have people who have signed up to buy all your shares, even if it comes out at the higher price. That has validated your price point, now if you haven't even talked to half your prospects you might decide to raise the offering price or increase the number of shares, you go back and call the folks who committed before and make sure they are still on board.

Now you have a list of people who are willing to buy your stock, and then when the market opens you sell them that stock at the high end price, and collect your money.

Now those people (and the bank that is the 'market maker') for the stock may be willing to sell the stock for a premium over what they paid for it. Other investors who have read the S-1 but weren't part of the initial roadshow might say "I'd buy this stock even if it was 20% higher than that initial price." and they put in a buy order for it, someone says "Hey a quick 20%! I'm down!" and sells them the stock they bought at the IPO price from LNKD.

The price bounces around and then lands at a point where nobody else is willing to buy it for any more money than it is being offered at. Nominally the 'market' price for that company.

Now if people start buying the stock for any price because they just "want in on the action." as it were, then the price can rise above the price that is supported by the fundamentals of the company, and that is a speculative price rather than a market price. Stocks priced on speculation define a bubble.

So LNKD priced at $45 I think, they had more demand than they could meet, and the price has risen. Are speculators buying it? Hard to know yet but it seems like there is some speculation going on.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#89
post #21
post #5

LinkedIn made $15 million dollars last year, and they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO. And, this IPO values LinkedIn at somewhere close to 6.5 billion dollars. A valuation of 6.5 billion dollars on $15 million net income. Let that sink in.

>>*"they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO" No, that's not how it works. LinkedIn priced their IPO at $45/share, meaning they raised $352.8 million. The share price right now has no impact on how much money they raised.

They left a lot of money on the table.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#90
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>*"they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO" No, that's not how it works. LinkedIn priced their IPO at $45/share, meaning they raised $352.8 million. The share price right now has no impact on how much money they raised.

How much of that goes to crystal trophies and high-fiving brokers that made the deal happen?

7% of the total IPO issuance goes to the bankers. This number is consistent across the street. Once upon a time, anti-collusion investigations were threatened because there was no explanation for why every major bank charges exactly 7%
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