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New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

bbc.com

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Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#81

Post by oliwarner »

gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

It was only a lockdown in name. Schools were in. Shops were open. Ministers have even been supplying pubs with methods to skirt the rules (scotch eggs ffs).

Not saying it's not bad, just that very little is actually being done to prevent the spread. Govt care more about keeping people in work.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#82

Post by thanatosmin »

raadore wrote: post #65
jsnell wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's not just about there being correlation between the variant appearing, and there being a new wave. That is a pretty weak data point by itself. We have more evidence and everything so far is pointing in the same direction. The big deal to me is that this variant is muscling out others in sequencing (+ PCR tests which by coincidence can tell the difference between this variant and the previously dominant ones),…

On dec 10 WHO released a statement on their website admitting that PCR tests are faulty, will detect anything we want them to detect and therefore medical staff need to look for symptoms which basically means you’re sick if you have symptoms. https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-not... As a scientist that information tells me that all cases have to be considered faulty since the foundation is faul…

You are misrepresenting the WHO statement. It’s covering a small technical issue that setting the Ct threshold for PCR tests can vary the false positive rate, particularly when there is low prevalence. Because use of this, it can be helpful to consider the Ct value of a positive result. It does not say the Ct threshold has been set incorrectly, or that PCR tests “are faulty.”

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#83

Post by hammock »

gns24 wrote: post #43

I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is. During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different. Now high case counts are spreading from the South East into the rest of the country. We don't know whether we can eve…

>During the recent 4-week lockdown it was already clear that something odd was going on in Kent; whilst case counts were dropping in the rest of the country, they continued to rise significantly there. Something was clearly different.

They said the same thing about overnight vote counts in Fulton County, GA... turns out it was nothing.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#84

Post by Someone »

makomk wrote: post #76
imeron wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/13403496399466291... If this chart is true EU countries announcing the closing borders the last couple of days is waaay to late to prevent the spread of the new strain in Europe.

Yeah, all the evidence seems to point to the border closures being a stupid, counterproductive attempt to close the stable doors after the horse has bolted and maybe shoot the messenger in the process. Unfortunately, there seems to be a bit of a push here in the UK to spin this as a necessary and inevitable measure that the government should have anticipated, including the closure of the border to road freight - whic…

I think it may be too late, but if it isn’t, bordering of a population where it is more widespread will help. Even if it is too late to prevent this variant from leaving Britain, it will lower the speed at which it spreads, giving time to prepare (assuming it is more widespread in Britain than elsewhere)

Because of that, I think this move may be overcautious, but I don’t see how it can be stupid or counterproductive.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#85

Post by torben-friis »

throwaway4good wrote: post #58

My worry is this: If you take a population where a virus is widespread and start vaccinating then the likelihood for a mutation that escapes the vaccination is much higher, had you instead taken a population where the virus not widespread and vaccinated there. Is this correct? UK has a widespread ongoing outbreak and is the first nation to deliver vaccinations at a big scale.

I'm not sure I follow.

Why would vaccination increase the likelihood of new mutations, or mutations surviving better?

The only way I can see that reasoning working is that the mutation was somehow vaccine resistant but not resistant to the immune reaction we get after being sick with the comon corona, but it is not obvious to me that it would work that way, I would assume the opposite.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#86

Post by dgritsko »

rubyist5eva wrote: post #52

I know I'm less afraid of it. More contagious generally means less deadly.

My understanding was that because this virus can spread presymptomatically or even asymptomatically, there is little or no evolutionary pressure for it to become less deadly. It can easily spread to many people before the host even knows that they have it. Maybe I'm misunderstanding things, but if that is the case then it would seem that the normal "rules" for the virus becoming less deadly over time don't really apply.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#87

Post by standardUser »

plutonorm wrote: post #46

Very suspicious that this story breaks just as Boris needs to lock down the country over christmas. "everyone is going to hate me, quick think of something to blame.".... Eureka .... "There's a new virus strain, totally unforeseeable, don't blame me for the lock downs" Just sayin'

These days, it seems like everyone is "Just sayin'" some sort of nonsense conspiracy theory with no evidence. I wish people would stop sayin'.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#88

Post by tonyedgecombe »

adwww wrote: post #80
detritus wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On my walk to work this morning, I detoured down a local main street, curious to see what shops were considering themselves 'essential' and remaining open. Apparently this time around, travel agents and jewellery sellers have added themselves to the list, with a few barbers clearly operating illicitly behind half-drawn shutters. I was bemused by the very chi-chi local middle class deli near my home insisting they'd b…

Re the deli and other quasi essential shops, it would seem unfair if they closed when you can still buy your fancy cheese and olives in a supermarket.

I don't know why you expect it to be fair. The policy needs to be effective first and foremost. Schemes like furlough are there to support people who are most affected.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#90

Post by _Microft »

maest wrote: post #40
occamrazor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct link to the thread where he explains why the evidence, although not conclusive, strongly supports a higher infectivity of the new variant: https://mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/13407169016101724...

Are there any non-twitter sources available? I can't access that website. Also, I doubt twitter is the place where that information should live long-term anyway.

Try nitter, it's a fast alternative to reading Twitter content on Twitter itself. I modified the link above for you:

https://nitter.net/jcbarret/status/1340716901610172416

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