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Wish S-1

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Re: Wish S-1

#81

Post by jedberg »

One of my friends works for Wish, so I hate to rant on them, but I've never had a good experience with them. I've bought two items from Wish now.

One of them took about six weeks to arrive, after it was promised to arrive in three. When it arrived broken, I was told there was nothing I could do because I was outside the return window. It was a strip of LED lights, and only the blue lights worked beyond the first section.

The second item was also promised in three weeks, but took nine to arrive, which was sad because it was a gift for my wife's birthday, which came many weeks after her birthday. The item was one of those white void photo boxes with a strip of LED lights. It worked well enough for about three uses and then the USB connector broke right off. So it's now just a useless white plastic box.

So yeah, I'll probably never order from them again.

Re: Wish S-1

#82

Post by echelon »

earthtobishop wrote: post #66

I totally get the Wish hate but I don’t think most here realize why it’s so popular. My family in the Midwest loves wish because they purchase from there knowing the quality isn’t going to be superb. My mom buys random things from them like clothes, jewelry, and random appliances for literally $5. She’s willing to wait three weeks to get her stuff because it’s such a good deal. My dad was able to get a quality DSLR f…

This perspective makes it sound like the internet equivalent of Dollar Tree or Dollar General.

Re: Wish S-1

#83

Post by almost_usual »

mbesto wrote: post #56
jtsiskin wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any change in the number of tech IPOs specifically?

Define a "tech IPO" for me. I'll wait.

If every human stopped working at the company for a day the product would still work (not a meatspace product). The company will typically have a high GAAP gross margin.

Re: Wish S-1

#84

Post by ganoushoreilly »

soniman wrote: post #18
adventured wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overstock is going for ~1.4 times sales (and that's 3x inflated versus May due to OSTK recently joining the bubble party). If by some miracle Wish gets 15x, they'll be a spectacular short opportunity.

Wish was valued at $11 billion in the last VC round in 2019. Since then Shopify is up 200% so if Wish is being valued off Shopify then $37.5 billion isn't far off. Shop's price to sales is 50x so 15x isn't outrageous for Wish. Shop is growing faster but Wish's economics are better.

> https://www.amazon.com/Wireless-Headphones-Bluetooth-Earbuds...

But Wish is in a retailer vs Shopify as a platform. I Highly doubt wish has the same value. In fact, I don't know a single instance of someone shopping wish and being satisfied. Someone will buy it, it'll probably be way over valued, and it will eventually drop back.

Re: Wish S-1

#85

Post by jedberg »

mbesto wrote: post #56
jtsiskin wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any change in the number of tech IPOs specifically?

Define a "tech IPO" for me. I'll wait.

A company where software engineering is considered part of R&D and not IT.

Re: Wish S-1

#86

Post by ikeboy »

jedberg wrote: post #79
ikeboy wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've previously critiqued the mighty mug example. It has the exact issue I pointed to above - comparing the US retail rate to an international sorted rate. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21073682

Your claim was disproved back then and it's still false now. You were comparing the shipping rates for someone who does all the sorting and long haul delivery vs China, who just dumps all the mail at the Port of Los Angeles, sorted into buckets by zip code.

I was not doing a comparison, I was showing how the NPR numbers were dishonest. NPR claims that it costs $6.30 to mail something across the street. They never give a specific number for a shipment from China to compare to.

Prices have gone up since then, but even today the most expensive option with no pre-sorting for 13 oz is only $5.39. It can go as low as $2.36 depending on the level of sorting.

NPR is clearly not doing an apples to apples comparison, and nobody has tried to defend them, they just attacked the numbers I sourced.

Now, you're saying that China does full pre-sorting to the zip code level but doesn't deliver to the closest location. This is roughly equivalent to the 5-digit DNDC option, which currently costs $3.56 - maybe slightly more because I don't know the exact details of how China delivers to the US. And it was lower at the time of the NPR article, which claimed the domestic price would be $6.30.

Re: Wish S-1

#87

Post by ikeboy »

_ea1k wrote: post #76
ikeboy wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've previously critiqued the mighty mug example. It has the exact issue I pointed to above - comparing the US retail rate to an international sorted rate. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21073682

From the rates that I've seen, I don't see how they can possibly represent the real cost of shipping some of these items. They aren't injected into the USPS system close enough to the destination to be comparable to something like SmartPost for example.

That's certainly possible. I'm sure they lose money on some packages. But it's nowhere near the difference that people claim.

Re: Wish S-1

#88

Post by fractionalhare »

mbesto wrote: post #56
jtsiskin wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any change in the number of tech IPOs specifically?

Define a "tech IPO" for me. I'll wait.

A company whose revenue is primarily derived from a technology characterized by high margin, high scalability and low fixed costs. One could also say that such a technology should be the primary differentiator for the product. The products therefore tend towards software and hardware as applied to a pre-existing market, but that's not an ironclad rule.

Re: Wish S-1

#90

Post by ikeboy »

jedberg wrote: post #79
ikeboy wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've previously critiqued the mighty mug example. It has the exact issue I pointed to above - comparing the US retail rate to an international sorted rate. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21073682

Your claim was disproved back then and it's still false now. You were comparing the shipping rates for someone who does all the sorting and long haul delivery vs China, who just dumps all the mail at the Port of Los Angeles, sorted into buckets by zip code.

And as I pointed out in the comments then, Amazon charged $3.28 for delivery in two days at the time.
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