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Asana S-1

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81–90 of 251 posts

Re: Asana S-1

#81

Am I reading this correctly in that they had a net loss in 2019 of $50.1 (42.4 adjusted) million dollars, and then in 2020 a net loss of $118.6 (68.2 adjusted) million dollars? (bottom of page 58) And that their plan is to just continue trying to upsell and acquire new customers? Hmmmm

Sales and marketing and R&D fuel rapid growth. This should be maintained until growth nears its ceiling and the company starts encountering diminishing returns on investment in growth.

Re: Asana S-1

#82
post #35

According to the filing Asana has 1.2m paying users. Each user is worth maybe $1000. That puts Asana at 1.2bn. The median forward revenue multiple for public enterprise SaaS companies is 10x, and with 2020 revenues of 150mn that results in a 3bn market cap. A third data point is they raised 75M 16 months ago at a $900m post money valuation. With growth at 100% annually that puts their current valuation at 2.5bn or so…

That 3rd point is outdated, as you have more recent valuation data - the stock recently traded at 13.04-25.00 price, with 151M shares outstanding and 33M in unexercised options.

Re: Asana S-1

#83

Wow, this is a torrent of IPOs today. Investors / boards are wanting to get money out before things turn south I feel. Aside from that, I'm surprised how much it costs Asana on engineering R&D, for essentially a ticket management system. How does a team grow to ~300+ developers ($89M R&D) to figure out how to attach PDFs and videos to tickets, and email people when there's a change in status? (ok yes I'm oversimplify…

> How does a team grow to ~300+ developers ($89M R&D)

Is it possible to reach a S-1 with a decent valuation with just ~30 employees "market confidence"-wise?

Re: Asana S-1

#84
post #58
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very crowded market - not very sticky either relative to other SaaS type cos. I would avoid this one personally.

Am going to short this one once it is out- saying this as someone who has been a user.

Shorting anything now is shorting the federal reserve.

Re: Asana S-1

#85
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, what is going on at Asana? R&D costs outpacing revenue in the year before IPO really surprises me (from ~54% to ~62%). For comparison, Atlassian went from ~38% to ~36% in the year before IPO.

The thing that drives me absolutely bonkers with Asana (others do this as well) is that the freelancer has to upgrade their "free" account to roughly $70/month to get functionality like seeing a Timeline (think Gantt). Their pricing isn't clear that to upgrade to Premium (to get Timeline) says it's $10.99/month. It's not until you get to the next screen that it tells you it's 5x10.99/month because there is a five per…

Ummm, I'm on a two seat plan currently, maybe it was a recent change to allow plans under 5?

Re: Asana S-1

#86

Wow, this is a torrent of IPOs today. Investors / boards are wanting to get money out before things turn south I feel. Aside from that, I'm surprised how much it costs Asana on engineering R&D, for essentially a ticket management system. How does a team grow to ~300+ developers ($89M R&D) to figure out how to attach PDFs and videos to tickets, and email people when there's a change in status? (ok yes I'm oversimplify…

Costs a lot of money to build your own programming language and then throw it out. https://blog.asana.com/2017/08/performance-asana-app-rewrite...

"Our founding engineers had learned from their experience working at Google and Facebook that to ensure a performant and stable application, they would need to build their own framework"

Wow. Interesting.

Re: Asana S-1

#87
post #35

According to the filing Asana has 1.2m paying users. Each user is worth maybe $1000. That puts Asana at 1.2bn. The median forward revenue multiple for public enterprise SaaS companies is 10x, and with 2020 revenues of 150mn that results in a 3bn market cap. A third data point is they raised 75M 16 months ago at a $900m post money valuation. With growth at 100% annually that puts their current valuation at 2.5bn or so…

I'm not sure where you get $1000 per user. Is that a CLTV number? The amount of money put into the company by Dustin himself, the declining efficiency metrics (costs increasing faster than revenue), and the 10x number you mention points to a valuation more around $1.5B.

Re: Asana S-1

#88

Wow, this is a torrent of IPOs today. Investors / boards are wanting to get money out before things turn south I feel. Aside from that, I'm surprised how much it costs Asana on engineering R&D, for essentially a ticket management system. How does a team grow to ~300+ developers ($89M R&D) to figure out how to attach PDFs and videos to tickets, and email people when there's a change in status? (ok yes I'm oversimplify…

Costs a lot of money to build your own programming language and then throw it out. https://blog.asana.com/2017/08/performance-asana-app-rewrite...

Luna wasn’t a programming language, it was a framework. The link you yourself provided equates it to “React, RxJS and Firebase” and states the closest OSS equivalent as Meteor (developed by ex-Asana employees).

Re: Asana S-1

#89
post #75
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snowflake, SumoLogic, Asana, Unity all filed S-1's today. 4 relatively large, well known companies filing IPO's today.

And AirBnB is much earlier in the process but has filed confidentially.

If Airbnb filed their S-1 last week, and these companies filed their S-1s today, then wouldn't Airbnb be further along in the process and not "much earlier"?

Re: Asana S-1

#90
post #84
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am going to short this one once it is out- saying this as someone who has been a user.

Shorting anything now is shorting the federal reserve.

if that were the case why are banks still closer to their 52 week low than high?
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