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Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

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Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#81
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a very touristic neighborhood in Lisbon and several of the apartments in my building are rented full time through AirBnB & friends and it's definitely still a lot quieter than pre-covid, and we're in August when there should be tourists everywhere. It's only one datapoint of course but from this very limited perspective it seems very hard for me to believe that their business would be stronger now than pre-…

Personally I’d love to spend some time in Lisbon but as an American I’m pretty sure I (rightly) wouldn’t be allowed in your country. So travel restrictions are probably the issue there

Sure, that's part of the problem, but I think that's not a purely Portuguese thing. Hence why I have some difficulty believing that AirBnB would be thriving right now.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's their moat?

The main one to me is network effect. Hosts will join the platform because there are renters there, renters will join because there are hosts.

As soon as a competitor comes along that is better for landlords, renters or has a good marketing campaign people will move.

The network effect is not that of Facebook where you would have to convince all your friends and family to sign up and start using a new site/app.

I suppose they could just buy the competitor like Facebook does, assuming another large corp is not behind it.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#83
post #52

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Another dark pattern is hiding the price until you are nearly booking the place. Most people want a cheap stay close to where they need to be, so they look on the prices on the map, which fail to include fees which can be all over the place depending on the host.

This was outlawed in Germany / the EU. So the price you see on the map includes cleaning and platform fees.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#84
post #52

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Another dark pattern is hiding the price until you are nearly booking the place. Most people want a cheap stay close to where they need to be, so they look on the prices on the map, which fail to include fees which can be all over the place depending on the host.

I'm not even sure if that is a dark pattern rather than just poor design. In the end, you're just going to frustrate users who think they are paying $50/night over 7 nights but when they divide their final price by 7 it is $100/night.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#85
post #52

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Another dark pattern is hiding the price until you are nearly booking the place. Most people want a cheap stay close to where they need to be, so they look on the prices on the map, which fail to include fees which can be all over the place depending on the host.

This hasn't been the case for years. If you choose the dates, the full price (including any fees) is included in the total.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#87

Reality still hasn't hit the travel industry yet. We still haven't even begun to see the impact of covid on the economy start to unravel. Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I su…

I think the big bucks for AirBnb in the future are in the medium-long term rental market, not the vacation market. The >1 month rentals also happen to bypass most of the regulations they're having issues with.

I dont think they have any competitive advantage there.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#88

Here's another bear argument: the political tide is turning against them. Lisbon and New York are just some of the cities that have made AirBNB more difficult. New York has made even a listing advertisement illegal if it's for a short-term (under 30 days) timeframe. Paris forced registrations and taxing some years back, which slashes the number of properties available. Politicians in Brooklyn constantly evoked AirBNB…

What action has Lisbon taken recently? I hadn't heard this until now.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#89

Here's another bear argument: the political tide is turning against them. Lisbon and New York are just some of the cities that have made AirBNB more difficult. New York has made even a listing advertisement illegal if it's for a short-term (under 30 days) timeframe. Paris forced registrations and taxing some years back, which slashes the number of properties available. Politicians in Brooklyn constantly evoked AirBNB…

What action has Lisbon taken recently? I hadn't heard this until now.

They're market-friendly actions but there's still a political response: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/in-europe-covid-19-i...

edit: Basically they're offering landlords incentives to rent to the city which rents to workers and students. The article says that's 2000 apartments off the AirBNB (or "short term") platforms. That's some serious revenue.

Other cities and countries are also mentioned in this article, which is a few days old. It seems cities are taking advantage of the pandemic to pull housing back from AirBNB. The bear thesis gets stronger.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#90
post #52

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Another dark pattern is hiding the price until you are nearly booking the place. Most people want a cheap stay close to where they need to be, so they look on the prices on the map, which fail to include fees which can be all over the place depending on the host.

The cancellation policies are nuts too.
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