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Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

forbes.com

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Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#81

Post by charwalker »

paulmd wrote: post #20
alexpetralia wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sense of how people are managing? I sort of assumed that people _must_ be receiving money because there's no way Americans in the lower deciles of savings would be able to pay their bills consistently without work or stimulus. If there's no stimulus and no work, how are they paying bills? Is it on credit? Was there actually some savings?

Roughly 1 in 3 american households are behind on their housing payments. Most states (and all federally backed mortgages) have temporarily suspended evictions so the short answer is that people in financial distress dropped that expense, which is usually the single largest on most people's budgets (for low-income people this can often be 50% or more of take-home depending on the city - yes, the rule of thumb is that…

I work within a financial institution (CU) and I can say they have no wish to actually evict/foreclose/etc. After the 2008 crash they bumped their reserve % 3-5 points higher than required to insulate from the next recession (here today). But for mortgages, internal notices appear to suggest it's better for the CU if they keep people in their homes and have the same level of payments resume in a few months vs auction the house. Maybe the math only works out for a few months, I'm not in the loop on those conversations. They are very community focused and not driven by profit so that helps me trust the internal news.

As someone wanting a home in a high CoL area, I would love a 10-20% off rush from thousands of houses going to auction or sale but it wold be devastating locally. We simply are not equipped, as a nation, to address the fallout from this years events. Especially not with current (lack of) leadership and circling of wagons.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#83

Post by Paradox0 »

nitrogen wrote: post #74
paulmd wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rural areas are already heavily overrepresented in the american system. We certainly don't need to put the thumb on the scale further. The ultimate problem is that "the rest of the state" (for virtually all states) is empty, hardly anybody lives there, and letting a minority override the will of everybody else is tyranny of the minority. Taken to the extreme, this is ultimately what killed South Africa and Rhodesia a…

You don't think the people who live somewhere should have a say in what happens there? Having city dwellers decide what happens in rural areas is the tyranny of imperialism.

No, it doesn't make sense that people should have greater voting power based on their location in the same polity.

Your argument is equally valid in reverse -- there's no reason why rural dwellers should decide what happens in cities. Why should your vote count for more because I have more neighbors than you do?

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#84

Post by charwalker »

dominotw wrote: post #37
ethanwillis wrote: post #2

Our government has failed in their response at local, state, and federal levels. The other thing we're going to be seeing soon is that these Unemployment programs have failed to do what they're ordained to do. This is an anecdote, but my brother was furloughed and has been waiting on any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months

> any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months I got mine almost immediately. What is the difference between me and your brother, I don't understand.

My GF has yet to get hers or her tax return. The stimulus check went to an address from 2 years ago and she would be on hold for hours just trying to get her address updated and stopped calling. There's maybe $3k just sitting out there but the Treasury can't get it to her. This is why I vote blue, we need to adequately fund our government systems or face issues like this.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#85

Post by singlow »

blaser-waffle wrote: post #47
_wldu wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure. I posted that to point out the danger of these statistics. We have to be careful. People can tell whatever kind of story they want to tell (at either extreme) and cite the same statistics. Mark Twain made this quip widely known, and it is relevant: "Lies. Damned Lies. And statistics"

Benjamin Disraeli made it famous; he said it first. Mark Twain made it famous with Americans.

If Disraeli made it famous, why doesn't anyone have any idea when or where he said it? When Twain first used it, he indicated that it was a phrase attributed to Disraeli by some, but in a way that made it sound like Twain knew that not to be true. There is no evidence Disraeli ever said it and its first appearance in history is after Disraeli's death.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#86

Post by paulmd »

nitrogen wrote: post #74
paulmd wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rural areas are already heavily overrepresented in the american system. We certainly don't need to put the thumb on the scale further. The ultimate problem is that "the rest of the state" (for virtually all states) is empty, hardly anybody lives there, and letting a minority override the will of everybody else is tyranny of the minority. Taken to the extreme, this is ultimately what killed South Africa and Rhodesia a…

You don't think the people who live somewhere should have a say in what happens there? Having city dwellers decide what happens in rural areas is the tyranny of imperialism.

You do have a say in what happens there, that's why there's local elections.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#87

Post by ilamont »

ethanwillis wrote: post #2

Our government has failed in their response at local, state, and federal levels. The other thing we're going to be seeing soon is that these Unemployment programs have failed to do what they're ordained to do. This is an anecdote, but my brother was furloughed and has been waiting on any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months

Feds: Absolutely

State: Depends on which state you are talking about

Local: Depends on the municipality

Let's also not forget the international leadership, particularly WHO, for its spectacular early failures such as ignoring warnings from Taiwan (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan...) and avoiding any action or statement that would offend China such as calling for a travel ban in January (“In fact, we oppose it,” https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/01/30/275959/the-china...)

Regardless, the U.S. federal leadership's incompetence has made everyone's else's jobs exponentially harder. But I don't think it's fair to blame all states and municipalities for failing.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#88

Post by charwalker »

landryraccoon wrote: post #42
raziel2701 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic data ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#0 ) is showing deflation. The quantitative easing has so far been deflationary. The Fed can lower interest rates, but it cannot make people spend. People are unemployed and scared, they are not borrowing money, and it shows in the lending data as well ( https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.h... ) where we can see falling numbers in…

I am speaking anecdotally here but.. Deflation? I can’t think of a single product that has gone down in price and numerous things are more expensive. In particular, virtually every single food item at the grocery store is more expensive than it was in March. Am I the only one who has experienced this? It seems like basic staples (milk, eggs, flour) are substantially more expensive than a few months ago.

You need to consider the whole basket that the CPI is based on including other factors like housing, utilities, and oil/gas. We probably won't see any specific store bought items drop in price but trends overall will reflect deflation. Part of that is the cash injection is not spread over just the US population but anyone that relies on the USD for transactions or backing their currency. Being the default currency has perks.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#89

Post by majormajor »

nitrogen wrote: post #74
paulmd wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rural areas are already heavily overrepresented in the american system. We certainly don't need to put the thumb on the scale further. The ultimate problem is that "the rest of the state" (for virtually all states) is empty, hardly anybody lives there, and letting a minority override the will of everybody else is tyranny of the minority. Taken to the extreme, this is ultimately what killed South Africa and Rhodesia a…

You don't think the people who live somewhere should have a say in what happens there? Having city dwellers decide what happens in rural areas is the tyranny of imperialism.

An extra large irony here is that "left-leaning cities in right-leaning states" is much more common than the reverse, so what we often see in practice is rural state dwellers telling city dwellers in those states what to do. Look at the mask stuff for Atlanta vs Georgia from today, for instance.

That's without skewing the strength of the vote, even!

So, no, I'm far from convinced that we have to protect the poor rural folks from their fellow citizens.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#90

Post by charwalker »

option wrote: post #18
TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The government is injecting tons of cash into the market. This props prices up and causes inflation, or at very least avoids deflation.

this. The cash is basically on fire now with all the money printing. Thus inflated asset prices

It's not what is reflected in data though, just hype.
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