Earlier quoted context omitted.
I had been very disappointed with the local weather forecast last summer, and then there was an interview with one of the meteorologists involved and they said they were quite proud of how accurate their predictions had been so far. I was taken aback, as in my mind their "success rate" had been well below 50%. Then I got my answer: they focused on the temperature forecast, while since I bike to work what I was intere…
From talking with meteorologists, it seems forecasting actual rain is not very hard if you have enough current data on the state of the atmosphere. What can be difficult is mistiness that is just on the borderline between falling droplets and moisture just hanging in the air. Differences can be extremely local in nature. [I'm not a meteorologist, I program computers, but I'm a pilot so I have a pilot's appreciation o…
Rain is not easy predict, especially long in advance. Just taking things with a grain of salt here. If you truly believe that forecasting actual rain is not very hard, please start a new weather forecasting company and give it all you got! However i'll tell you, it's not that easy. Just because a computer model 'runs' does not mean it correctly modeled the atmosphere. All models are imperfect bud and those imperfections get amplified by 10x when trying to simulate earth+atmosphere systems