Live data from Hacker News

An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

economist.com

81–90 of 403 posts

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#81
post #59

We have also been watching these machine learning models for 6 months: - increase the volatility in virtually every financial market they touched - be exploited by adversarial learning networks to amplify funded propaganda as news - use poorly contrived sentiment analysis to generate incomprehensibly meaningless news headlines These non-linear "function approximators" have absolutely unpredictable and insane non-line…

But it has also generated prodigious amounts of erotic fiction so that balances out some of those points, right?

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#82

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

Perhaps basing our decisions on general purpose function approximators (whether forced or voluntarily) has not served us so well, ultimately. I think they play an important role in causing, or at least enabling, much of the trouble that we live in nowadays.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#83

The next article in the series, see the menu on the left, describes Donald Knuth as "a programming guru." :)

You want “ the programming guru”?

A "programming guru", to me at least, doesn't cover his accomplishments in algorithms, among others. It conveys someone who produces a lot of good, high quality code, but not novel research.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#84

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

> it's insulting to have my work dismissed so shallowly

You haven't had to deal with end-users much have you? I've seen years of really excellent work (not my own) blithely dismissed with expressions such as "but what does it now?" or "why can't it do X [impossible thing]?"

People have been told AI is potentially going to take over from the human race. Unless that's in your pipeline, they're going to basically treat your work as eaten bread.

Which is precisely how it's supposed to be. Nobody is required to respect your work in progress. The world will either care or...care not.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#85
post #59

We have also been watching these machine learning models for 6 months: - increase the volatility in virtually every financial market they touched - be exploited by adversarial learning networks to amplify funded propaganda as news - use poorly contrived sentiment analysis to generate incomprehensibly meaningless news headlines These non-linear "function approximators" have absolutely unpredictable and insane non-line…

This is so strange. If you use facebook, google, netflix, apple, microsoft, amazon or a whole host of other services you are interfacing with AI all the time. To think there’s no value there is asinine. Comes up a lot on HN. Seems like people set in their ways who don’t want to progress forward.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#86

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

Is it not better to engage with the critics and correct their perception in that case? I'm sure the author would not mind a direct response that outlines where they went wrong and why.

I googled "Tim Cross" and he's reachable on Twitter: http://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/tim-cross/.

More generally, I don't understand gnashing of teeth when it is much easier to provide feedback to the author directly.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#87
This is so strange. If you use facebook, google, netflix, apple, microsoft, amazon, tesla or a whole host of other products and services you are interfacing with AI all the time, sometimes as the core product of the service. To think there’s no value there is asinine. Comes up a lot on HN. Seems like people who get excited for these types of articles are set in their ways and don’t want to progress forward.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#88

This is so strange. If you use facebook, google, netflix, apple, microsoft, amazon, tesla or a whole host of other products and services you are interfacing with AI all the time, sometimes as the core product of the service. To think there’s no value there is asinine. Comes up a lot on HN. Seems like people who get excited for these types of articles are set in their ways and don’t want to progress forward.

You may even argue that the richest companies of the western world have AI as their core product. May be causation vs. correlation though.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#89
The problem with articles like this is that they don’t properly represent the spectrum of what an ML project can be for a business.

If all you’re talking about is self-driving cars or voice-operated assistants, then sure, the article’s mostly right. Modern techniques that have revolutionized ML in the past ~15 years have not translated to massive new economic gains in many areas they were anticipated to affect.

But this is the vast vast minority of all ML projects.

Many of the most economically successful ML projects I’ve run in my career are very simple, and ruthlessly focus on business value from the outset. A lot of them involve automating inefficient manual processes, things like spam filtering, phishing detection, fraud detection, automatic keyword tagging, automatic metadata classification in images or text, simple time series forecasting for logistics or consumer demand, simple models for customer churn, and a wide variety of different customized search engines for big & small content collections.

Just for one example, I worked on a project to automatically validate metadata about human models appearing in images, to flag discrepancies between documented ages / ethnicities within legally required model release documentation and the real appearance in images, to find fraud (especially when minors were used in stock photography).

This saved _millions_ of dollars annually in human review & legal costs for when that platform incorrectly approved photography with invalid or fraudulent accompanying release documents for the human models.

In just one project, a team of six engineers paid for itself about 5 times over and the delivered software requires minimal maintenance and only became more valuable as the platform grew larger. In fact that was one of the only times in my career when a non-finance company chose, discretionally, to pay larger bonuses than in employee job agreements as a reward.

That project did happen to use deep neural network for image metadata prediction, but it was fairly mundane and easily trained on 2 average GPU machines from a dataset of only a few hundred thousand images.

Edit: added below

I’ve also observed across several companies that there’s a big variation in outcomes and success of ML based on the level of investment in infrastructure.

It’s not about pumping money in for some crazy GPU cluster or huge framework for massively parallel training, but you do need to separate ML operations away from the ML engineers who research solutions for products and internal stakeholders.

It’s a situation where domain specialty has to be used efficiently or you’ll waste a ton of money and time. If you hire an expensive senior engineer for ML (salary easily north of $200K in large cities), but you task them with managing a database or operating kubernetes or debugging partitions in HDFS, you probably won’t get a good return on your investment.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#90

This is so strange. If you use facebook, google, netflix, apple, microsoft, amazon, tesla or a whole host of other products and services you are interfacing with AI all the time, sometimes as the core product of the service. To think there’s no value there is asinine. Comes up a lot on HN. Seems like people who get excited for these types of articles are set in their ways and don’t want to progress forward.

It's the cycle of AI. Breakthroughs -> it's going to automate EVERYTHING -> wait maybe not -> breakthroughs...
Post reply on HN