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No Recent Automation Revolution

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Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#81

Post by cameldrv »

raducu wrote: post #27
Swizec wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The revolution won't be the automation. It'll be in us accepting that the job wasn't who we were/are and it's okay to let it go This is perhaps the only thing socialism got right. At least the flavor we had in Yugoslavia and the remnants it left on the psyche of my parent's generation. You do your job, then you go home and live your actual life. The job exists as a way to "pay your dues" in society, but it isn't yo…

"Money doesn't buy happiness" is just something we tell the poor so they don't revolt -- this also applied to communism -- the communist elites lived a much better life materially and socially. Sure, average Ivan was "happy" because his neighbors had just as crappy flat, just as crappy car, just as crappy job, just as crappy food and so on and there was no way for him to "better" his life because money was meaningles…

Having not lived through it, but having seen a glimpse of its aftermath living in Berlin a few years, it was very interesting to see the contrasts between the Ossis and Wessis (at least ones that were say, at least 18 in 1989). In general, I found the Ossis to be more friendly and open and fun loving. For example, an Ossi party would usually be louder, messier, and have worse food, but everyone would be laughing and a guitar might come out at some point. The typical Wessi party I experienced was perfectly catered, everyone was perfectly dressed, and it was in a perfect house, but people weren't necessarily having that much fun.

Now this is different in other parts of Germany, but it's an interesting natural experiment, because these guys were literally in the same city.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#82

Post by 082349872349872 »

foogazi wrote: post #76
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are they saying that higher a job pays, the more likely it is to get automated? Yes. "Simple economic theory predicts that, all else equal, employers are more eager to automate jobs with higher pay and more workers. So these two factors should predict job automation. And we do in fact see such effects in Table 3, though more consistently for pay than employment." > what does 'employment' refer to exactly? Number of…

No one will automate for automations sake - businesses choose how to deploy capital to improve efficiency, which can be achieved through scale or going after the largest cost

In the mid-twentieth century (IIRC) there was a "paradox" observed that the US was capital-rich but its exports were labour-intensive. Is this situation still true?

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#83

Post by ponker »

dragontamer wrote: post #44
toomuchtodo wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We have more prosperity and I sometimes wonder if our parents didn't have more life. When I was younger and naive, I judged the Amish. As I've grown older and wiser, I realize they had the right idea all along. Family, loved ones, community first. Everything else serves those.

The Amish are actually some of the most successful businessmen. So... its probably not all just "friends and family values" in the Amish world. Despite a luddite-based culture and "technically" an 8th grade education, they're probably one of the hardest working people around. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/06... -------- They just figured out where to focus their business chops. Organic foo…

The Amish have built a prosperous life for themselves selling their brand of "quaintness" to Goldman Sachs traders buying curio cabinets and porch swings for their place in Sag Harbor.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#84

Post by SubiculumCode »

yk wrote: post #74

> Last December, Keller Scholl and I posted a working paper suggesting that this whole narrative is bullshit, at least so far. Thing is, when you are calculating the color of the sky, then it is either a bluish looking spectra, or you are in trouble. And consequently physicists will look outside immediately after that calculation. The entire post needs an explanation of why they don't find any automation in that time…

The article reads like sour grapes about an article that didn't get as much attention as the author believed it should, and yeah, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#85

Post by ponker »

Barrin92 wrote: post #32
hirundo wrote: post #3

The horrors of the automation revolution have been on our collective mind for a long time. In the '70s this was one of my dad's favorite jokes: "It's terrible, my father lost the job he had for decades. He was replaced by a clever mechanical gizmo just six inches long. And then my mom got one." It plays on the fear of being emasculated by technology. Maybe that leads us to exaggerate the threat.

Ted Chiang made a similar point a few years back. (well not that phallic, but also about psychological projection as a reason for the AI fear) "This summer, Elon Musk spoke to the National Governors Association and told them that “AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization.” Doomsayers have been issuing similar warnings for some time, but never before have they commanded so much visibility.[...]A…

I don't think that no-holds-barred capitalism is the likeliest outcome for a superintelligent AI, but it is the one we need to be the most vigilant of. The abstract mathematician AI could just be allowed to live out its peaceful life proving ever-more-obscure theorems.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#86

Post by ponker »

jjoonathan wrote: post #68
darksaints wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed that phone trees are awful, but the exact same logic done in a chat form is surprisingly sane. We can easily skim past the bullshit with our eyes, and hone in on what we need quite quickly. In many cases I prefer it to the triage by humans, with their bad microphones and unfamiliar accents. It doesn't even need to be sophisticated logic, with heavy use of AI and conversational styles of communication. A simple…

I keep seeing praise for chatbots, but every single one I've interacted with has been exactly as useless as an IVR. Do you have an example of a useful chatbot?

Chatbots are only good when staffed with a competent backing crew, and only offered to the user when those agents are online. But most companies invest the minimum in the chatbot experience so it blows.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#87

Post by 082349872349872 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12
cancerSpreads wrote: post #8

This article comes too soon. How long have we been able to use millions of entries to machine learn? I'm still limited by processing speed. I imagine between math improvements, electrical engineering, computer science improvements/discoveries, and more we can automate jobs that require thinking or fine motor movements.

> This article comes too soon Most estimates a decade ago forecasted massive automation-caused job losses by 2020. > How long have we been able to use millions of entries to machine learn? How long did mechanical looms need to show they wouldn't become sentient? > I imagine I do to. But based on current technology, we have no idea how to achieve these goals. We can't even model how or when we might do so. This implie…

> How long did mechanical looms need to show they wouldn't become sentient?

They didn't become sentient, but at the time how the Quality distinguished themselves from the rabble was through art, literacy, and music, all of which were achievable (to some degree) by mechanical loomwork substituting brass for brains.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8u93VQfHmw

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#88

Post by dpenguin »

It’s basically modified Parkinson’s law at play - work will expand to most available workforce.

With increased automation, either new jobs are created(thereby increasing the overall output of the economy) OR expectation for individual productivity is reduced, decreasing individual stress.

History is your proof. Automation has been constantly increasing forever and there’s no job loss en masse because of that. Empirically speaking there are almost always more jobs created.

Not saying anything about quality of life.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#89

Post by visarga »

taneq wrote: post #71
raducu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Money doesn't buy happiness" is just something we tell the poor so they don't revolt -- this also applied to communism -- the communist elites lived a much better life materially and socially. Sure, average Ivan was "happy" because his neighbors had just as crappy flat, just as crappy car, just as crappy job, just as crappy food and so on and there was no way for him to "better" his life because money was meaningles…

Money may not buy happiness but poverty sure can remove it.

In Romanian we say 'Money don't bring happiness but neither does their lack of'

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#90

Post by Err_Eek »

raducu wrote: post #27
Swizec wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The revolution won't be the automation. It'll be in us accepting that the job wasn't who we were/are and it's okay to let it go This is perhaps the only thing socialism got right. At least the flavor we had in Yugoslavia and the remnants it left on the psyche of my parent's generation. You do your job, then you go home and live your actual life. The job exists as a way to "pay your dues" in society, but it isn't yo…

"Money doesn't buy happiness" is just something we tell the poor so they don't revolt -- this also applied to communism -- the communist elites lived a much better life materially and socially. Sure, average Ivan was "happy" because his neighbors had just as crappy flat, just as crappy car, just as crappy job, just as crappy food and so on and there was no way for him to "better" his life because money was meaningles…

My dad was salty during communism that he didn't get more "respect" for his labor (highschool teacher) than your run of the mill factory worker. I remember during the early 90s how he was hopefully saying that once the country exits the "transition" phase, we will all have the dignified life of middle class westerners.

Meanwhile the country still does the same in international rankings as it did during the time of our dear leader. However more of the egalitarianism we had disappeared, and while some enjoy some semblance of prosperity in the heart of the major cities, the bulk of the nation has no job security and no future prospect but to be a cheap labor source for the west.

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