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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#81

Post by ceejayoz »

dominotw wrote: post #77
ceejayoz wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? Yes, most likely. Folks still have to go out for groceries. Essential workers spread it to their families. The city had to close down various beaches and trails because people weren't staying far enough apart. etc. etc. etc.

So if make groceries pickup only and hefty fines/jail times for flouting guidelines. We would've had lockdown only for 2 weeks, in theory?

Or civil unrest.

You'd have to do something about the grocery pickup folks, healthcare workers, people maintaining other critical infrastructure, etc. too.

China can manage this (but it took more than two weeks). We probably can't with our current political system.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#82

Post by DanBC »

makomk wrote: post #74
addicted wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s likely we are undercounting deaths caused by COVID by a factor of 1.5 to 2 in places which are actually properly tracking COVID deaths.

Maybe, but the article is doing the exact same thing with the flu, except probably even worse because we're not systematically testing people for the flu in the same way that we are Covid-19.

You don't need to systematically test people in order to assign their death as a flu death.

We have many different ways of counting deaths. We either count the people who had a test; or we count death certificates; or we do surveillance to see what respiratory illnesses are circulating and how many people are searching google for flu-like symptoms and how many people are attending primary care and ED for flu-like symptoms.

(and which ever method we pick, if we pick the same method for covid-19 we see many more deaths)

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#83

Post by dominotw »

rsynnott wrote: post #62
dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

Chicago's lockdown may not be very effective. For instance, per https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility/ , there's a way smaller decrease in movement than, say, London or Paris.

> say, London or Paris.

am I looking at this wrong? transit decrease is

London - 85%

Paris - 86%

Chicago - 77%

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#84

Post by mcphage »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #65
ceejayoz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

> I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really healthy.

If everybody died this year, then next year's death rate will be zero! That's not a good thing.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#85

Post by Fjolsvith »

recursive wrote: post #51
dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

It's possible to get infected even if you're following the guidelines. For example, essential workers may get infected by a carrier performing essential activities.

Doesn't lend credibility for suggesting lock-downs for future pandemics. Yay.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#86

Post by natch »

dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

The goal of the guidelines is not to prevent 100% of all cases. That goal would be impossible and unreasonable. Even with perfect compliance, the guidelines are not written to prevent all transmission. Again that would be impossible and impractical.

You would have to refrain from opening your doors or windows. Would have to wash all food items, all packaging, and any other items from any store, or anything shipped to your home, with some disinfectant outside of your home before bringing them into your home.

You would not touch anything outside your home without using gloves, ever, and your gloves would be disposed of outside of your home... etc., etc.

And not only you, but every single person, including children, would have to do all these things, and more. And the few examples I wrote don't even account at all for in-home transmission.

The virus is going to spread. That's not going to be prevented. There will be many individual cases. The guidelines are just for slowing it down in aggregate numbers.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#87

Post by soperj »

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #41
travisp wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing how many people have gotten infected and where. If a region has not yet had substantial transmission of the coronavirus, then it won't have many deaths. This would also be like saying in August, "the flu has only killed 100 people, I guess the flu won't be very deadly this year." Approximately 0.25% of NYC's entire population has died of COVID, which is significantly more than die of the seasonal flu.

What region doesn’t have it? What model shows we aren’t near peak death now? Edit: seriously asking questions.

I'm not sure if you're being wilfully ignorant at this point. There are 3.3 million confirmed cases world wide, in a population of 7.8 billion. Say they've missed 90% of cases, and we're actually at like 100 million cases, that's still only 1% of the world that has it. Massive regions like India, Africa don't have it.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#88

Post by gpderetta »

donatj wrote: post #24

> The former [COVID] are actual numbers; the latter [Flu] are inflated statistical estimates With doctors being instructed by the CDC to count every death that could have potentially been COVID as a COVID death, in the face of near total lack of testing, saying that the numbers are not inflated is a bold faced lie. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/07/covid19-death-certi... https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg…

Excess death in Italy is estimated about twice the reported death count. In the most affected regions it is 3-4x.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#89

Post by bjornsing »

HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

“That's what people are interested in”. I very much disagree. 9/11 didn’t exactly register in all cause mortality. There’s a lot more people are interested in, for good reasons.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#90

Post by [deleted] »

HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

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