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California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

ucdavis.edu

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Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#81

Post by WD-42 »

nostromo wrote: post #71
ben_w wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely the important number is per lives saved rather than per lives lost?

Costs always matter. It’s rarely said in polite company but it’s true. I suppose it’s impossible to know if we’re striking the right balance at the moment, but it’ll be interesting to see the analysis after it’s over.

I think you’re missing the point. It’s hard to tell when preventative actions work. It’s easy to tell when they fail. Right now the evidence is things would be a lot worse without them.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#83

Post by bawolff »

arcticbull wrote: post #59
lisper wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…

Is the german study of germany? Because the ratio of recoveries to deaths is way higher in germany than the united states. The risk of covid varries a lot by geographic region and usa seems like one of the worst.

> It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season. A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year.

So far. The flu season started before the covid season so that's a bit of an apples and oranges as you are comparing different time scales. The bigger issue though is its unknown how big covid could get if it balloons. Like its mostly on par with flu now, but its not over yet and that's with the taking of extreme messures to prevent transmission (which we dont do to prevent flu). Measuring potential risk in terms of what's happened so far when we haven't even seen what a complete season of covid look like, feels premature. Jumping off a bridge also looks safe if you base your predictions on the lack of all the bad things that happened before you hit the ground.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#84

Post by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 »

qplex wrote: post #78
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

>Just trying to find the silver lining here. Oh, we could pretty much save the planet and live happily ever after if we could keep it like this. Only to find some rock barreling down on us some day, but ah... I digress.

Ignore the skyrocketing rates of suicide, domestic violence, and child abuse.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#85

Post by evandijk70 »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

At least in the Netherlands, definitely not:

The first Figure in this article (Dutch) shows the number of deaths from any cause.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2330786-oversterfte-door-corona-blijf...

During the Corona outbreak, almost double the amount of people are dying compared to the same time last year.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#86

Post by Exmoor »

lisper wrote: post #62
arcticbull wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…

> your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% I'm 55 so I'm pretty sure my risk is higher than that. Also, the covid risk is highly front-loaded. If I'm gong to die from covid, I'm likely to do so now whereas if I'm going to die in a car crash that might happen now or it might happen later. I don't really care about dying per se. Sooner or later it's going to happen. What I care about is dying sooner and more…

Your risk of dying is, accepting the 0.37% for the sake of argument, 0.37% if you're infected. The actual chance of anyone, even of someone in a more dangerous demographic, of dying of Covid in their lifetime is significantly lower than that.

Additionally, I believe the 1% chance of dying in a car crash is over the course of a lifetime. A 55 year old has likely lived well over half their life and has also aged past a significant chunk of the riskiest time to be in a car (likely 16-30).

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#87

Post by Fjolsvith »

kevingadd wrote: post #24
aianus wrote: post #6

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

Interesting to think about what that $1/resident/day in savings could be spent on, though. A small supply of free masks so everyone can protect each other by wearing one when they go out? Discounted public transit rides to work?

It would probably be pocketed by a politician in California.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#88

Post by WD-42 »

dehrmann wrote: post #47
rchaves wrote: post #32

will US learn to be less car-centric after this?

No. For one, this situation has nothing to do with cars, so there's no obvious lesson about cars to be drawn from it. Accidents are relatively rare, and when you frame the headline, as another commenter did, as $1 per person-day, it's a lot less impressive. It's also not viable in a lot of places. Mass transit and living close to work, shopping, and services, is only viable in certain urban centers. NYC, DC, Boston,…

Funny you say accidents are rare. The death toll from covid in the US has just barely surpassed the amount of car related deaths per year in the US.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#89

Post by nostromo »

WD-42 wrote: post #77
nostromo wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at the ~40k US deaths and the $6T spent, we’ve spent $150 million in stimulus per death. Looking at the non-spending costs of lost productivity, opportunity costs, etc., it’s a staggering number.

Better the dollar number is staggering than the death number. Would you rather it be reversed?

For 6T I feel like we could prevent the half a million malaria deaths that happen each and every year since forever and have money left over to tackle the 100k obesity deaths each yeah in the US.

I’m not saying our response is wrong by the way. But it’s a jaw dropping number. It’s a building a moon base, or universal healthcare for a decade, or a mission to mars, or high speed trains up and down America’s coasts number.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#90

Post by hyko »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

Public Health England’s all-cause mortality surveillance suggests not, at least in that country: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
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