The plans to reopen the economy are scary • Hacker News Board

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#81

Post by nsm » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:11 PM UTC

wbl wrote: post #46

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

Young people die also when the health system is overloaded.

Yes! I think many people don't realize that COVID by itself is not the problem so much as the additional burden it places on the healthcare system, which could be used to help people with other problems. We are already seeing cases of people with cancers having surgeries delayed because hospitals are trying to conserve PPE.

I was unlucky enough to fracture my ankle right before California instituted shelter-in-place and to fracture it in a way that needed corrective surgery. I was lucky that CA managed to avoid the worst of it, so that my surgery was able to proceed on schedule. Otherwise I was looking at potential long term complications in addition to being off my feet for 5-6 months instead of the 2 months they expect now.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#82

Post by davidw » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:11 PM UTC

vturner wrote: post #74

frockington1 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my state (Ohio) at least, protest are starting to form on the legality and length of shutting down businesses. It's still only a handful of people but seems to be growing every day. There is a very slim chance the government can enact shut downs for long and still maintain authority

Where in Ohio is this? I'm not doubting, just like to read local news on it as I'm in Ohio too. I applaud DeWine for acting quickly, but I'm concerned that maybe for rural and small city locations the shut down was too much. I wonder if we are creating a cry wolf effect for non-metro areas. All the mass effects in my area are purely from the response. Of course, one may say, what if we hadn't a shut down; but, I thin…

If it feels like 'too much' it means it's working.

Rural places don't have great health care structure in a lot of places.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#83

Post by ethanwillis » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:12 PM UTC

mymythisisthis wrote: post #66

Lots of business are converting to delivery. I think this is good. The warehouse style of store, prevalent since the 1960s is an outdated model. Schools are moving more courses online. Another major upgrade. The restaurant experience hasn't been rewarding for a long time. People should learn to cook at home. Experiment with fancier cuts of organic meat. Movie theaters have been terrible for decades. Sticky floors, to…

I think the last point is rooted in some modern ideas about what it costs to develop and deliver an education.

Our education system cost (At least in the States) is absurdly overpriced and most of that money is not going to the professors.

You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount of money to design the course, pay the graders, and deliver the content.

While working as an adjunct I got paid maybe $5k in total? For developing and delivering a new online Bioinformatics course for two semesters. What's sad is I actually got paid a bit more than other adjuncts.

While the pay could be increased to make it better it still doesn't require turning students into a revenue stream for % of their salary over X years.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#84

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:13 PM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #72

> "The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin." If this refers to the bluetooth supported apps I've seen developed by several institutions, does t…

I don't mean to rip on you, it's important to notice problems, but that seems very solvable. Just require some minimum duration of proximity before you alert.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#85

Post by davidw » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:13 PM UTC

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

30 year old guy died where I live, recently. He leaves behind a young family.

Do not pretend this can't hurt young people, badly.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#86

Post by gumby » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:13 PM UTC

Hermel wrote: post #50

coliveira wrote: post #36

> Any feasible plan starts with massive testing, completely subsidized by the government. And yet just yesterday the president claimed we don’t need mass testing. This is something I've been saying from day 1: short of universal vaccination, the only way to get back to some form of normalcy is widespread testing of the population. Any government with some sense of reality would spend billions in testing, to avoid los…

I wonder whether taking the temperature is enough when combined with social distancing? For that, it would be interesting to know what percentage of people that are infectuous have an elevated temperature. 50% might already be enough, because that means we could cut the infection rate in half just by quarantining everyone with a slight fever.

I don't really understand the point of temperature taking as asymptomatic patients are contagious (sars-cvd-2 is far from alone in this respect).

This testing provides a false negative which allows vectors to mix with healthy people -- a false sense of security. You might as well not do it.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#87

Post by davidw » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

frockington1 wrote: post #54

basch wrote: post #38

This will be a good chance for state governments to show how well they function and coordinate absent federal guidance. Maybe they will form their own federation to circumvent the current federations ineffectiveness. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/governors... That's at least one emergent non-California nation state coming to be. Maybe we could call it the Great States. Toronto can come too. https…

States shouldn't need federal guidance and should prefer not to receive it. Without federal oversight, states and municipalities can tailor policy to their own area

Having some states do the right things and others not doing so is kind of like having a pool with a peeing section.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#88

Post by gumby » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

IanDrake wrote: post #59

As we enter summer, the question no one is asking is: Can mosquitoes transmit this virus like they do malaria?

Interesting question although unlikely. Certainly it's not possible with the mechanism of malaria transmission which uses a multi-species cycle.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#89

Post by icegreentea2 » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

No one is addressing the issue right now because we aren't even in a situation to exploit the alternate arrangement. Suppose at this very moment we switch over to the quarantine the old people strategy, and go to largely unrestricted life for other age groups. Even in the 20-50 year old range, the hospitalization rate looks like 20%. Say we're actually missing 50% of cases cause they're so mild, so it's really 10%.

330 million Americans, says 70% aren't at highest risk, all become infected, at 10% hospitalization -> 23 million hospitalizations required. Spread over 18 months, that's still an additional 1.25 million hospitalizations every month. That's 0.3% of Americans in hospital for COVID, constantly (assuming average 1 month time in hospital required - yes I made that up).

For context, roughly 0.7% of Americans are incarcerated at any given time.

Still a logistical nightmare. You can tweak those numbers however you wish, but they generally all giving mind boggling logistical nightmares.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#90

Post by floren » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

frockington1 wrote: post #44

whatshisface wrote: post #37

He's saying that such-and-such is politically unviable, but that's what we were all saying about business shutdowns, too.

In my state (Ohio) at least, protest are starting to form on the legality and length of shutting down businesses. It's still only a handful of people but seems to be growing every day. There is a very slim chance the government can enact shut downs for long and still maintain authority

When I see that small businesses get shut down, but Walmart gets to keep selling everything because they have a grocery section, I get a little disgruntled too. New Mexico just shut down standalone liquor stores... but Walmart will be allowed continue selling liquor. If I owned a store, I'd be pretty upset that the governor appears to be enriching the very biggest "everything" stores while driving me out of business.