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How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

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Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#81

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

erentz wrote: post #60
ceejayoz wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Washington state just seized a restock from a Target in Seattle. https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1241505423259099136

I really want to hear the back story on this. Who is the distributor? Why did they end up at a Target? I'm betting the distributor tried to sell them to hospitals but the hospitals said they weren't appropriate/certified for medical use so couldn't take them? Not much to go on from a tweet but definitely needs investigating.

The respirators in question have exhalation valves[1], so they definitely wouldn't be normally certified for medical use.

[1] https://twitter.com/anndornfeld/status/1241372544764006400/p...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#82

Post by amluto »

tyingq wrote: post #5

The mask guidance is confusing as well. I get they are trying to preserve masks for medical staff. But, they also say it's mainly spread by coughing, sneezing, and resulting spray of bodily fluids. Surely even a scarf around your face would have some benefit? Yes, I get that the virus is small enough to pass through, but some deflection is better than none.

I haven’t seen any real results on whether bare virions in the air are infectious, but it certainly doesn’t sound like a major mechanism of COVID-19 infection. Certainly, when coughing, a good deal of the expelled material is visible and fairly large. And wet.

ISTM a moderately tightly woven or knit hydrophilic mask (e.g. cotton) could be quite effective. Knits could have the added benefit that droplets would need to take a twisty path to get through. And there is plenty of such material around.

This shouldn’t be that hard to study in a lab. Find a sick person, have them cough through different masks, and measure viral concentrations on nearby surfaces.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#83

Post by Munky-Necan »

CriticalCathed wrote: post #42
Munky-Necan wrote: post #37

My colleagues are out of PPE and now using scarves because we are so under supplied. CDC guidelines were just changed to allow staff to be exposed to COVID patients without properly protecting themselves. I was talking with some physicians and providers when I said that I think this will be the Chernobyl like moment of our era: where the truth is hidden from people to prevent a panic paradoxically exacerbating the cu…

This is so completely blowing this crisis out of proportion. I am so confused by the tenor of the discourse on HN. I expected more from this place.

Chernobyl was projected to kill millions. The top epidemiologists in the world projected in the most realistic scenarios that the death toll would have been in the millions prior to the quarantines. Both could have been prevented if people knew the truth well in advance of the crisis.

Call it hyperbole, but the Spanish Flu killed millions because the public was not told the truth soon enough. We were likewise told this was nothing to worry about for months, and now we have ~30%-50% of the US quarantined.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#84

Post by simonh »

whatshisface wrote: post #30
ceejayoz wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Washington state just seized a restock from a Target in Seattle. https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1241505423259099136

The message to commercial entities is clear: don't bother responding.

I'd say it's "don't be assholes".

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#85

Post by ceejayoz »

catalogia wrote: post #78
ceejayoz wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're gonna respond by selling N95s to consumers right now, instead of to hospitals, then I'd rather you didn't bother responding.

More masks is better than fewer masks, even if they are distributed sub-optimaly.

Target is not making masks.

Target is buying masks for resale.

The US government, given any sense, should be forbidding private sale of these masks until there's enough supply in hospitals and other critical spots. It shouldn't be hard for a mask distributor to find a hospital willing to buy right now.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#86

Post by [deleted] »

Munky-Necan wrote: post #37

My colleagues are out of PPE and now using scarves because we are so under supplied. CDC guidelines were just changed to allow staff to be exposed to COVID patients without properly protecting themselves. I was talking with some physicians and providers when I said that I think this will be the Chernobyl like moment of our era: where the truth is hidden from people to prevent a panic paradoxically exacerbating the cu…

[deleted]

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#87

Post by dahart »

XorNot wrote: post #56
deelowe wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's more frustrating is the exact same logic applies to "social distancing." Social distancing will not completely stop people from getting sick. It'll just slow the spread. So, according to the CDC, an imperfect solution for quarantine is totally fine, but when it comes to masks, only n95 or better are worth pursuing.

It's quite likely that in all the scenarios a mask may have a useful effect, N95 or better is the only time it works. For medical professionals in close contact with patients and dealing with airborne-protocol pathogens (which is what a droplet-mediated pathogens like SARS2 becomes classed as once patients are coughing and being intubated) then a bad mask is quite probably worse then no mask (this has precedent: inef…

> It’s quite likely that in all the scenarios a mask may have a useful effect, N95 or better is the only time it works.

You’re saying you think anything less than an N95 has 0 effectiveness. Why do you believe this is likely? Are you aware of the data that says otherwise?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22655436

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258525804_Testing_t...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#88

Post by ceejayoz »

bdavis__ wrote: post #54
ISL wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not clear from the post whether they were seized or purchased by the state. There are (comparatively) plenty of financial resources around, just not a lot of masks.

they were purchased. the government does not just take property. in the end it may be the GSA price, which may not be the same as target was expecting to retail it at.

> the government does not just take property

lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_forfeiture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._$124,700_in_U...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#89

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

tdfx wrote: post #62
look_lookatme wrote: post #18

I think a lot of people in medicine, science, economics, policy and the media think what's happening right now is their shining moment, but if you talk to people on the ground -- this is a catastrophe and no one has any clue what's happening and people see that and they are internalizing it. The experts are f* this up and it is going to have long term implications for already eroded public trust in institutions.

From the casual observer point of view, it appears only some Asian governments have been able to competently handle this crisis. It appears we're going to learn the hard way things that China, South Korea, etc. understood through intuition: (1) Widespread testing is key. Testing symptomatic people is too little, too late. (2) You can't rely on people to self-quarantine. (3) Infected people need to be isolated from th…

> From the casual observer point of view, it appears only some Asian governments have been able to competently handle this crisis.

Anything I’ve read indicates China screwed up at almost every step only to have to do what the rest of the world is being forced to do now. Axios did a good timeline that leads me to believe the Chinese aren’t that special and if anything their government acted in such a way that doomed the rest of the world.

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coro...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#90

Post by MiroF »

Jare wrote: post #69
erentz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole blaming people for hoarding masks and then the "masks don't work" things have been incredibly frustrating. It is almost like authorities didn't want anyone to start asking why the public couldn't get masks, as they can in say Taiwan. Most (if not all) distributors and manufacturers of masks has been prioritizing health care systems and governments over retailers since January. Just as they should do. Were t…

- If you tell the public that masks are great protection, and the public can't find then to buy, that is a huge source of unrest. - The messaging (in Spain but looks similar everywhere) has been that you should wear one if you are sick or, more importantly here, if you are at risk. This is a clear indication that they do help protect against being infected. This should have prevented everyone from harassing anyone we…

> I personally hate being told something that is patently false, but I totally understand that, collectively, we need to be lied to for our own protection, because collectively we become a bunch of idiots.

Yep, I understand this. I've also noticed recent emphasis on the danger of the virus to young people (like this somewhat misleading NYT article [1], although I just noticed that they recently updated it), I suspect because they want young people to stay home.

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-...

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