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Is It a Pandemic Yet?

nytimes.com

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Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#81

Post by billfruit »

ropiwqefjnpoa wrote: post #16
Swizec wrote: post #12

We were looking into Covid-19 at the office and after digging through the scariness we realized mortality rate for healthy 30-somethings is around 0.1%. Then we said screw it and stopped worrying. We’re most likely gonna be fine. Even if it becomes widespread the odds are ever in our favor. Plus there’s already a few confirmed cases in SFBA so ... Edit: for the downvoters, I’m not say spread disease with wonton aband…

Yeah, I stopped worrying a few weeks back after I saw the mortality rate. It's basically a highly virulent flu with the same risk factors. Not on the same level as sars and the like.

MERS has a considerably higher mortality rate.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#82

Post by znpy »

rossdavidh wrote: post #62
wonderwonder wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I noticed the same thing. As numbers continue to grow, we run the real risk of even top of the line health care systems being overwhelmed and people passing from lack of access to care. Couple numbers that jump out for me are China with ~3% mortality rate but also rumors of these numbers being vastly unreported. Iran with a 19% mortality rate (on a small scale)! Also the mortality rate appears to be 3.2% where for a…

China also reports about 8 recovered for every 1 death, so even if their numbers are accurately reported, there are a lot more who have done neither as of yet, and about 11% of them will die. Which would be a lot more deaths.

China also has a relatively old population, due to their one child policy. And age is a risk factor for covid-19. Italy on the other hand... Oh, nevermind.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#83

Post by nathanyukai »

ducttape12 wrote: post #76

Can someone explain to me why coronavirus is getting so much coverage? According to Wikipedia, Coronavirus has killed about 2000 people. Each year smoking kills 480,000 people in the US. In two days smoking will have killed more people in the US than coronavirus has worldwide. Shouldn't we have headlines about this every day? Or any of the other far more deadly things (traffic accidents, heart disease, suicide, etc.)…

well because people are used to those figures and it won't grab people's eyeball anymore. While coronavirus can potentially kill a lot more people if it becomes a global break out.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#84

Post by rubidium »

ducttape12 wrote: post #76

Can someone explain to me why coronavirus is getting so much coverage? According to Wikipedia, Coronavirus has killed about 2000 people. Each year smoking kills 480,000 people in the US. In two days smoking will have killed more people in the US than coronavirus has worldwide. Shouldn't we have headlines about this every day? Or any of the other far more deadly things (traffic accidents, heart disease, suicide, etc.)…

Because smoking has been in the headlines, but it's not news anymore that it's killing so many. The editor of that newspaper would get fired for making that a headline everyday.

It is news that there's a new flu-like virus emerging, spreading, and having a relatively high rate of mortality.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#85

Post by theseadroid »

nickjj wrote: post #47
James_Henry wrote: post #20

> And what should each of us do, beyond staying informed and washing our hands frequently? Keep calm and rational. It might be worth stocking some reserve of critical medications, for example — but not too much, because hoarding could create shortages. > We, as individuals, can also try to plan for basic contingencies. Companies can cross-train key staff members so that one person’s absence won’t derail the business.…

> if needed, quarantine yourself and take care of yourself and your family/relations well How would that work in practice? The last I heard you can catch this virus pretty easily just by having air touch your eye. A lot of people live in either a city or a suburban area and most apartments and houses aren't air tight. Wouldn't your breath get circulated out of your apartment, mixed in with the outside air and drift o…

Coronavirus is possible to transmit via aerosol but not airborne. They differ in the transmission distance, among other things. Virus are infectious only when you receive a certain amount (Viral load). It is possible the virus loaded aerosol drift far away, but the density would become lower the further they drift.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#86

Post by BoiledCabbage »

ducttape12 wrote: post #76

Can someone explain to me why coronavirus is getting so much coverage? According to Wikipedia, Coronavirus has killed about 2000 people. Each year smoking kills 480,000 people in the US. In two days smoking will have killed more people in the US than coronavirus has worldwide. Shouldn't we have headlines about this every day? Or any of the other far more deadly things (traffic accidents, heart disease, suicide, etc.)…

Exponential Growth

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#87

Post by RegnisGnaw »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #40
remote_phone wrote: post #4

Of course it is. The officials at WHO failed us because they are more worried about the politics than the truth. This type of behavior will make us not trust them in the future.

Pandemic has a definition, and a disease that seems to be being detected and contained doesn't meet it. This one is at the tipping point. The situations in Italy and in Iran are potentially run-away if they can't draw a boundary around all the infections including the original spreader.

There is no definition of a Pandemic. Even the WHO states they don't have it. I quote the article:

The World Health Organization no longer uses the classification pandemic, but the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak remains an international emergency that is likely to spread further, a spokesman said on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-says...

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#88

Post by rolph »

asiachick wrote: post #56
danmaz74 wrote: post #8

I read a lot about this virus lately, and it looks like the mortality rate depends a lot on the availability of intensive care. If that's the case, slowing down the diffusion of the infection could be really important in keeping down the total number of deaths.

Dumb question but what intensive care? Do people need to be on respirators? Need access to drugs only available at ICU? Just curious if any of the things done at an ICU to prevent death really need to be only at the ICU.

if you get the dirty end of the stick and your interaction with the virus is an endangering one you will have problems with your organs due to the virus itself and arising complications

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#89

Post by kingofpandora »

gnulinux wrote: post #63
Udik wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they're referring to him as "patient one". Patient zero (i.e. someone who is or was ill and has recently come back from China) hasn't been found yet.

Why does it have to be China? Couldn't it be Thailand/Singapore/S.Korea/Japan/Israel/Iran etc?

Udik should have used e.g. rather than i.e.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#90

Post by sgc »

jraby3 wrote: post #17
Swizec wrote: post #12

We were looking into Covid-19 at the office and after digging through the scariness we realized mortality rate for healthy 30-somethings is around 0.1%. Then we said screw it and stopped worrying. We’re most likely gonna be fine. Even if it becomes widespread the odds are ever in our favor. Plus there’s already a few confirmed cases in SFBA so ... Edit: for the downvoters, I’m not say spread disease with wonton aband…

Isn’t it easy for these young 30 somethings to spread it to their families? Don’t any of them have young children at home? Interact with elderly parents? Not sure this is the best line of thinking.

Fortunately mortality for children is also very low. I completely agree with your perspective that this does not free us from worry or the human standard to care for others even when we are not immediately affected.

We are also unaware of any potential long term health affects to lungs, kidneys, etc. in survivors as is the case with SARS.

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