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A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

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Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#81
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that was covered six years ago too. The Alaskan fishery example is a modern comparison. We retired the Space Shuttle because it was too dangerous. One accident every hundred flights. We live in a different world than we did hundreds of years ago. One accident will require a review board and many expensive changes. Flights will be grounded. The point that I really want you to get is this: “In 100 years, more huma…

NASA/US Govt retired the space shuttle since it was extremely expensive to operate and there was funding competition for next generation vehicles/missions. Safety might have had a impact, but it was not the reason the shuttle was retired.

Yes, the Shuttle was expensive and Project Constellation was going to replace it. We’d only be without orbital capabilities for a few years.

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/163092main_constellation_program_ov...

Unfortunately, that was canceled 10 years ago. That was superseded by Orion?

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#82
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you mind elaborating on that first point?

The people who did it are dead or dying, the tribal knowledge wasn't written down.

Isn’t it odd that the most important political and military mission of a generation relied on “tribal information which wasn’t written down?”

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#83

No chance. This isn't the 1950s. We don't just throw people atop rockets anymore. These are vehicles, aircraft. There is absolutely no way any of the current crop of space vehicles could be made ready for a trip to the moon anytime before 2024. Going beyond low orbit, away from the sub-45min return time, is something we haven't done in generations. The craft need to be tested, repeatedly. Each test flight then has to…

Yawn, space is dangerous. We would all still be living in trees with this attitude.

I don't believe that we can actually design a system that is safe like this, so yes it needs a lot of testing and iterative improvement. In the meantime, we need to use it to launch equipment and a few brave souls that understand the risks.

Actually to add to that, I think putting timescales in front of something like this as a tendency to clarify the goals and therefor simplify the engineering. If we sit around for decades trying to shave a couple ounces off every single part and build in triplicate redundancy so its perfect it will fail.

If you look at apollo, what you see is that they had a review committee that followed up the work and tested/built their understanding from the ground up. Part of that was ripping out systems that were to complex to be easily understood when possible, and considering how everything worked together.

In many ways this appears to be what spaceX is doing, initial design, prove it out with a bunch of launches, fix problems as they appear, etc. So one of most important design goals is designing something that will be launched thousands of times (not necessarily the same rocket, just the scale) rather than something that is designed to be the perfectly safe vehicle for another half dozen launches before we scrap it for another 40 years.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#84

I agree with most people that it would be nearly impossible without a Manhattan Project style commitment from the Government and I don't see that happening. That said, an interesting thought experiment would be to put a Falcon 9 second stage to 'sleep' on an up coming mission for a couple of weeks and then have it wake up and relight. If that works push it to a month. With a system like that you could Falcon Heavy to…

They've done extended, multiple relight tests of the second stage as part of their Air Force mission rating tests.

I don't think it is anywhere near designed to stay usable after multiple days of staying cold, that is a completely different mission profile from what the second stage was designed to do, aka earth orbit missions.

I would expect the stored cryogenics would not take well to it.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#85
post #76
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my Jewish perspective, I think of it as oral tradition vs written tradition (like the pre-Mishnaic distinction between the Written Law and the Oral Law).

They need a space flight talmud

In general, I see good commit messages as a Talmudic codification of a company's oral knowledge - complete with back-and-forth conversations, contradictory points of view and distinct characters. Still better than having to go talk to the people involved, some of whom may no longer be in the organization.

(Specifically with commit messages as Gemara and wikis as the much more organized and impersonal Mishnah.)

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#86

I agree with most people that it would be nearly impossible without a Manhattan Project style commitment from the Government and I don't see that happening. That said, an interesting thought experiment would be to put a Falcon 9 second stage to 'sleep' on an up coming mission for a couple of weeks and then have it wake up and relight. If that works push it to a month. With a system like that you could Falcon Heavy to…

a Manhattan Project style commitment

The Manhattan Project spent about 2 billion over a 5 year period. That's around 23 billion in today's dollars. The 5 year budget for NASA exceeds 100 billion dollars.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#87
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NASA/US Govt retired the space shuttle since it was extremely expensive to operate and there was funding competition for next generation vehicles/missions. Safety might have had a impact, but it was not the reason the shuttle was retired.

Yes, the Shuttle was expensive and Project Constellation was going to replace it. We’d only be without orbital capabilities for a few years. https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/163092main_constellation_program_ov... Unfortunately, that was canceled 10 years ago. That was superseded by Orion?

More or less. Constellation was effectively broken up into smaller chunks (Artemis, Orion, Commercial Crew) versus being a unified program.

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#88
Ignoring that such bullishness is expected of the current administration's appointees, the devil's advocate can make a convincing case;

    Q. Can NASA send a crew to the Lunar Surface by 2024? And safely return them to Earth?
Yes, they can.

Sandworm laid out the mission cost in lives problem, but modern spaceflight already has defined an acceptable margin for loss of crew in most missions - 1 in 270 as set by NASA for its Commercial Crew Transportation System (CCTS) program. The historical mortality rate for astronauts remains at 3.2%, or a Loss of Crew (LOC) rate of 4 in 125 across all vehicles and missions. Let us assume that the political calculus changes and the 3.2% LOC rate becomes acceptable. What's next?

What's next would be the design of a navigation system for translunar and cislunar navigation - after Apollo, and the exploration of the solar system, this has become a solved problem. We can run and code an AGC with inputs from far better sensors on an Arduino. NASA's engineers can also automate astrogation using Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) technology. There are also highly efficient hydrogen upper stage engines available off the shelf for the Orion and the lander.

Unlike Apollo, 2020's NASA can use a more modern approach of Earth-Orbit Rendezvous (EOR) to construct the Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) stage with a lander and lunar orbiter via separate launches. Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) rendezvous and docking has become routine for us in this era. It's a maneuver that's performed several times each year at the International Space Station. LIDAR and automated docking has made an EOR safe and, virtually, error-free.

For this theoretical exercize, the vehicle could be automatically assembled in an 100mi orbit. Crew could go up and rendezvous in the final lunar orbiter-and-return component of the vehicle, or in a temporary (Dragon) capsule. The EOR approach reduces the size of the launch vehicles required, making it feasible for a COTS provider like SpaceX to provide a Falcon Heavy for this purpose. It also allows for the re-use of current CCTS providers, by letting crew proceed to the vehicle in a human-space-flight rated Dragon capsule (or a mated CSM-equivalent). This system can be constructed via hardware that is currently being flight-rated, or will be flight rated soon, making the SLS redundant (in the short-term).

The SLS - for political reasons - could be repositioned as a long-term support and heavy payload delivery vehicle as a part of an extended Space Transport System, as originally envisioned for the Shuttle. SpaceX could provide the reusable "shuttle" aspect. The SLS heavy-lifter capabilities. And a lunar gateway as a refueling station. A deal that keeps all parties happy.

For the LEM component, NASA has the benefit of hindsight. The LEM designs still exist, there are LEMs in storage and can be mapped in 3D to study them. The data collected from 6 landings can be used to implement "in hindsight" improvements, making it easier to take the LEM template from Apollo and modernize it by reducing the electronics requirement and payload capacity. NASA doesn't have to redesign everything from scratch, there is a design that works. A design that was taken down to the surface with great uncertainty in 11 and 12, but worked for 14, 15, 16 and 17.

The most difficult aspect of the mission - the ascent stage - was studied following Apollo, and can now be trivially simulated in computer games, such as Kerbal Space Program. We can beg, borrow and steal the LEM design, and simulate what the original planners could not, giving NASA a much faster turn-around time this time around. It is conceivable that, if the payload characteristics were more realistic, and the goals of staying on the surface were trimmed down, a slightly up-scaled LEM and a down-scaled Altair/LSAM https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altair_(spacecraft) could be made in 2 years or less. Flown in 3. Making it possible for an autonomous lunar landing in 4 and a surface jaunt in 4.5 years. However, that's theory, which would require tremendous resources to achieve.

After a cislunar docking maneuver, our astronauts can come home riding a far superior thermal protection systems than any contemporary material available in the Apollo-era. The amount of research that has gone into this area is extremely impressive, and gives our pioneers a safe journey home, where they'll land and descend via parachutes - which are far more complicated, but something that NASA, the organization, has more cultural experience with than SpaceX or Boeing.

From this template, a mission is not only conceivable - it's doable. The only question is how much.

How much is congress willing to give to make this a reality? And how far is the Trump administration willing to go to seal the deal?

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#89
post #29

NASA's best bet is to bite the bullet, scrap the SLS already, and help pay for SpaceX's development. SpaceX has a publicly announced rocket design that is capable of getting men to the Moon and back. They are working on it for themselves. They are looking for every source of funding that they can get. They already are planning suborbital flights this summer, and already are looking for it to be human rated by NASA. T…

Why isn't Trump talking to Elon Musk? Because he has NASA.

NASA has a proven record of human and machine space exploration. It put men in space 60 years ago. It put men on the moon and returned them all safely before Musk was born. Despite its second mover advantage, SpaceX has never put a human in space and the only celestial body it has managed to land on is earth.

Granted, SpaceX is good at cheaply delivering Tang to the ISS and shooting sports cars into space. But NASA is currently actually exploring the solar system. It's got robots on Mars, probes going to the belt, the sun and every planet in the solar system and many of their moons. Its got Hubble pointing at the universe and dozens of billion dollar satellites pointing at earth. Send a manned space ship into earth orbit, land it back in Florida and then reused it? Been there, done that. 30 years ago. Good God, it has even got a probe that has left the solar system and is currently flying through interstellar space.

If you want your stock hyped to impossible valuations call Musk. But if you want to explore space call NASA.

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/?order=launch_date+des...

Re: A moon landing in 2024? NASA says it'll happen

#90
post #80
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It needs more than just the rocket. You also need a lunar lander, and all we have right now are paper sketches of designs that would take more than four years to finish and build, on conventional timelines. (One wild card is the SpaceX Starship, which Elon is talking about having some lunar capability for, on extremely aggressive timelines. But Starship is a risky project in all sorts of ways -- besides which, before…

Most of the Falcon Heavy delays was because F9 became capable of lifting many of the payloads originally planned for Heavy, which then became (and still is) a solution in search of a problem.

very true, by the time falcon heavy launched it was more of a novelty than anything else. I'm surprised it wasn't scrapped entirely and the effort redirected to BFR.
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