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The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

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Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#81
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you still be okay if you only had an average level of wealth (by world wide standards) and most likely much lower than you have now? If you want to keep your current level of wealth/consumption then in a no growth scenario many others have to stay poor. Or are you talking only about national scale?

not the OP but I don't think the conclusion that many others have to stay poor if we go down the route of a dematerialised economy is true. If anything I'd argue the steps towards prosperity in an ecologically sustainable way in this scenario are shorter for developing countries, it will protect their ecology (it is the third world who works in the strip mines for the batteries for affluent tesla drivers in Californi…

> many others have to stay poor if we go down the route of a dematerialised economy is true

This not what I meant. I mis-read OPs

>> welcome the economic decline that would come with growth reduction

as no growth. If the (slow) growth (magically) only goes to the poor they may indeed eventually catch up.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

A more robust and sustainable future for my grandchildren.

Why your grand children and not someone else's?

Or put differently, would you forgo having children and grandchildren so that others can have this future you imagine?

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A more robust and sustainable future for my grandchildren.

Why your grand children and not someone else's? Or put differently, would you forgo having children and grandchildren so that others can have this future you imagine?

There are lots of people who intentionally don’t have children, me included. I don’t have much hope, if we continue treating Mother Earth as garbage.

That said, your parent comment probably meant “our” grand children, just a guess.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issues with retired people in the Bay Area that they have prevented any housing construction at all in the last 30 years, while living in gigantic houses for now one ortwo people: that’s why they get so much hate.

The USA has a surface of 9.834.000 km². California is ranked #17 within the US based on population density and has only 97 people / km². The Bay Area seems to have 18,000 km² which at 7.1 million people makes is quite dense already.

All of long island has 7.5 million people, at 5,617 people per square mile.

The bay area average is 868 people/sq mile.

No, the bay area is not dense at all.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#85
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel the same way as you. It seems like "economic growth" is being used to justify ignoring other societal issues. For example, you can pretty regularly see people on this site saying that retired people should be forced to relocate out of SV because they aren't contributing to economic growth as much as a high density apartment building filled with recent STEM grads would. Having everything focused so much on grow…

The issues with retired people in the Bay Area that they have prevented any housing construction at all in the last 30 years, while living in gigantic houses for now one ortwo people: that’s why they get so much hate.

I imagine from their prospective they have worked hard their whole life to build up these communities to which they maximize their own feeling of safety, enjoyment, belonging as well as many other sentiments I am sure. Perhaps it is their belief that the stand of trees preventing a skyscraper is much better served as a stand of timber for nature and other outdoor activities. My point is they have as much of a say in the world as the next guy. I wonder if what is happening is a bit of ageism where the younger generations think they know what decisions are best for a community while dismissing retired people’s desires. How we can compromise I do not know that answers.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#86
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealth spread really doesn't matter so long as everybody is getting wealthier. Which is exactly what is happening. By every metric imaginable the entire population of the planet is gaining in wealth. Some quicker then others. But gains are largely universal. Poverty is at it's lowest point in all of human history. And in a month it'll be even lower. Also when wealth goes up, overall consumption as measured by actual…

The bottom 50% of the US are poorer than they were in 1968 in both real and absolute terms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

Income inequality is a very flower metric to mesure wealth variations.

Imagine country A, awesome with very little income inequality. Half it’s citizens earn 9k a year and the other half 10k a year.

Now country B, is very bad. 90% make 50k a year and the other 10% make 500k. That’s terrible, isn’t it? I wouldn’t want to live in country B.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#87
post #6

Is the idea that technological improvements are tied to _increasing_ population somehow? What's the mechanism there? Being only slightly facetious, but if everyone had no more than one child, that leaves a lot more time in which to invent stuff. And true, over time there will be fewer people doing the inventing, but a world with ~a billion people in it still managed to invent flight, and one with billions fewer than…

I think it is a lesser driver if anything but can help some. If the current demand can be met then there is less of a need to develop anything new. Why farm if there is an abundance of fruit essentially. But if demand grows there is more reason to try something new instead of waiting for the existing to wear out completely.

Previously population growth was essentially a prerequisite for specialization in order to but well that has been broken for a while now.

Education, research funding, trade, cross pollination of ideas and similiar would have more of an influence but population growty does drive some.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#88
Anyway it is a pet peeve of mine about talking about economic growth and ending. Growth isn't just more stuff but also better stuff and how it is used.

If there is no growth even in such hypothetical extremes as a fixed population sustainable everything model then society is fundamentally doing things very wrong. Because you have global workforces working at things and nobody is learning to do anything better. A newbie having the exact same productivity as a veteran. In every field. That is deeply contrary to the state of being of everything and implies truly epic levels of mismanagement.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#89

I am not an economy expert by any stretch. Just going to share my take. Growth cannot go forever due to these factors I observed: 1. More and more wealth seems to be captured and locked away somewhere while the rest of the populace is left to having to cope with globally dwindling redistributable capital. 2. Population isn't even declining everywhere but I've read several times here in HN that white people in first-w…

Regarding point 2: The developed world birthrates are well below replacement rate and likely staying that way, but that's not new. (Also, East Asia has the lowest birthrates in the world, not the US/Europe).

The world news story is the rest of the world rapidly approaching that, even in many not so rich places.

Within developed countries, I'm only particularly familiar with US data, but what's happening in the US is that the big minority + immigrant groups are what's showing the biggest drops, moving them towards the white birthrate.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#90
This paper really annoyed me last night.

The assumptions made don't even render a world that looks remotely similar to what we have, and that abstracting away of messy complexity actually makes the central characteristics of the problem harder to wrap your head around, even if it does make it easier to reframe into a paper that'd look good in an academic journal.

Case in point:

You don't need higher math to understand that human beings are fundamentally lossy in nature. Perfect replication of the information required to sustain the current cumulative knowledge level doesn't happen because there is no guarantee that any one person that knows a thing can successfully communicate it to someone else in a way that can be understood, and that in the process of doing so, that that information isn't mutated in such a manner that something important isn't lost. Children amuse themselves with this phenomena all the time. It's called a game of "Telephone". Given an acknowledgement of this, the tendency for population decline to result in problems for a world that has been architected around the guarantee of population and economic growth is immediately intuitive.

As death removes older generations, the knowledge they had and failed to clearly replicate dies with them. Each new member of the population birthed in is a new crank on the slot machine of information propagation. Their life circumstances might allow them to understand that bit of arcane knowledge that no one else was able to do anything with because it didn't make sense to them because the constellation of shared lived experience between communicator and communicated necessary for comprehension wasn't there. New idea formulation, or old idea reformulation and propagation becomes reliable and less likely to snowball out of control to irrevocable loss as long as you keep throwing new blood at it.

If there is no new blood though, the numbers quickly begin to favor the life experiences required to underpin all the minutiae to sustain the corpus of knowledge as is not reoccurring in total across the entire breadth of the population, and you start to find your smaller remaining population further and further isolated from the practical experiences that made the linguistic representations of knowledge written down understandable. The knowledge then becomes useless, a dependency in the infrastructure that enables efficient physical completion of labor is lost, thus your population's output of tasks done per unit time drops, thus more work must be done just to keep things running, and so on and so forth until basic principles are again reformulated, and efficiencies from a chance rediscovery of the necessary experience underpinning a lynchpin technology can be realized again.

Just as information transfer is lossy, so is physical labor. If you have 1 million tasks that must be done in a day to maintain a stable level of output, and you decrease the number of agents available to do the tasks, the math simply works out that more work has to be done per agent to maintain output in a steady state, and we all know that the work output of a human being isn't trivially scaled up without ballooning the prerequisite knowledge required to do the task (I.e. skills at using tools, skills to teach the skills to use the tools, the tools to make the tools, the skills to operate the tools to make the tools, etc...) all of which themselves become tasks added on to the overall workload of your dwindling population who are working harder and harder to maintain the highest level of output possible.

The other issue not even touched on is the desirability of continued high growth regimes in the presence of a near tipping-point constraint violation to which a remediary measure has not been formulated. I.e. Excess carbon footprint. If you stay in your high growth regime in a wager to get that innovation faster from a new member, you're still templating your current footprint of resource use, and accelerating reaching your tipping point, with no guarantee you'll find it in time. Decline is a natural outcome in an organism facing this type of environmental dynamic constraint to buy time for other (in this paper, unrepresented, but which one can represent as decreased demand to output more of the destabilizing factor by your population, or natural processes operating to free up buffer space by things like carbon recapture and sequestration) processes time to shift the dynamics back in favor of supporting a new high growth regime.

I have the utmost respect for those that can trivially converse in the higher maths; I'll admit I had to crack open some books to understand what the heck they were getting at and whether it even made sense. I draw the line though where doing your analysis as they did takes you right out of reality into the atrophied realm of post-facto narrativization.

Those equations are meaningless to most readers, whereas putting things in terms of tasks to be completed, and characterizing overall knowledge level management as what it is, a bunch of overhead tasks draws the same Senate picture that it took them mucking around in control theory to even tangentially articulate. It started a conversation yes, but by constraining it to the realm of finance and economics, and leaving out the rest of the world you run afoul of that great aphorism that "problems cannot be solved with the same level of thinking that created them in the first place", which is exactly what this paper appears to be an example of doing.

Gah!

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