Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

ir.tesla.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 346 posts

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#81

Post by tempsy »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #67
tempsy wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's your point? the sub is literally called "wall street bets"...there's no confusion as to the nature of what everyone is doing. you can write off up to $3K in capital losses a year. people who jokingly bought $420 and $690 strike options just a few weeks ago are literally up six and seven figures each.

Sure! But there are also folks who have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Survivorship bias.

OK...? I said nothing about the fact there are many more people who lost money or that this isn't akin to gambling.

But there are few investments outside of options that can turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a matter of weeks.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#82

Post by xkjkls »

nordsieck wrote: post #73
aguyfromnb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. It's insane (ludicrous?)!

> I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. This is just my opinion: The way people were valuing Tesla is a massively valuable stock with a high potential of blowing up. From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability. It's not a huge increase in revenue, but it is a big decrease in the c…

> From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability

How? They lost $800 million in 2019.

> Additionally, because Tesla can self fund and doesn't have to rely on the markets to raise money, they don't have to care very much about short sellers driving the price down.

They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. Acting like they have no risks if they don't raise money is crazy.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#83

Post by _ea1k »

zhengyi13 wrote: post #37
aguyfromnb wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They guided for $2.5 billion in capex, and only spent $1.3 billion.

Ignorant question: if they spent only ~1/2 their projected capex, how did that happen? Did they get a bunch of great deals on land/machinery/etc? Or did they not build all the things they intended at the time they gave that guidance?

Their guidance for US production is relatively low compared to some of their guidance in the past. I'm guessing this means sluggish demand for the Model Y and a more cost-conservative approach to launching the product.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#84

Post by sf_rob »

manmal wrote: post #54
tempsy wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No... I wouldn't consider $500 in capital losses an "equally insane amount"...

I thought that you can only have such high leverage if you bought super meta products that expose risk, meaning you borrow money for that bet and which you‘d have to pay back if the hoped-for increase doesn’t come.

When buying call options the max loss is the purchase price. There's not a symmetric return as there is with owning stocks directly.

The reason you can make so much with so little capital is that the probability of the stock price moving above strike price of the call option is low assuming that the strike price is much higher than the current price and the expiration date is soon

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#85

Post by xkjkls »

mrtksn wrote: post #44
aguyfromnb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. It's insane (ludicrous?)!

What I do not understand is, what the company performance has anything to do with its stock performance? It's not like they are paying dividends, right? Totally unrelated markets, it's no different than the crypto coin markets. Even the volatility is similar. Besides that, Tesla has a rockstar CEO. He can achieve things that conventional companies can't even dream of. If he needs money he can do a publicity stunt and…

> What I do not understand is, what the company performance has anything to do with its stock performance? It's not like they are paying dividends, right?

Stocks are valued at the long term discounted value of their future cash flows. Are the markets always accurate and rational? No, but that's how they are intended to be valued.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#86

Post by xkjkls »

hw wrote: post #62
aguyfromnb wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Do you have data for this? Tesla had, essentially zero growth in the US in 2019, which is where it sells half of its cars. There are many companies that had higher growth than that, including Volvo, which grew 10% in the US. LandRover sold 125k units in the US in 2019, which is far more than the Model S + X (its competitors). So, I'm not sure wher…

The growth will come from China, where there's still plenty of EV incentives by the government. Growth in US will depend on new EV incentives IMO

Why is that a bull thesis though? If the growth is that dependent on subsidies?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#88

Post by TacoToni »

tempsy wrote: post #48
toomuchtodo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short dated deep out of the money TSLA calls are still gambling, but gambling you can do from home.

what's your point? the sub is literally called "wall street bets"...there's no confusion as to the nature of what everyone is doing. you can write off up to $3K in capital losses a year. people who jokingly bought $420 and $690 strike options just a few weeks ago are literally up six and seven figures each.

wow, you werent kidding. some folks made out like bandits. what a rush.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#89

Post by toomuchtodo »

xkjkls wrote: post #86
hw wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The growth will come from China, where there's still plenty of EV incentives by the government. Growth in US will depend on new EV incentives IMO

Why is that a bull thesis though? If the growth is that dependent on subsidies?

China is one of the biggest markets in the world and is committed to the rapid deployment of EVs.

Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while. China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#90

Post by xkjkls »

tempsy wrote: post #34

no joke there are several people on /r/wallstreetbets that have turned a few hundred dollars into $1M+ in 2 months.

There are also several people I know who have done so at a craps table. That doesn't make it a sustainable or recommendable activity.
Post reply on HN