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The Youth Unemployment Bomb

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Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#81

Post by prostoalex »

Alex3917 wrote: post #4
patio11 wrote: post #2

I'm most worried not for the numbers as for the corrosive effect long periods of unemployment have on employability. You lose the simple habits which are required for lots of gainful employment, such as "getting up before 9 AM consistently" and "working mostly non-stop for 8 hours a day". I see this in a lot of these articles where folks will, e.g., claim they applied for 15 jobs in 3 weeks. At some point the new nor…

I think the bigger picture is that at least in the US, most of these people will never get middle class jobs because they just aren't smart enough to really contribute anything. If unemployment among youths is around 50% or whatever today, then just imagine what it will be in ten years when gas is $8 per gallon and we're facing food shortages. There is simply no way this is going to solve itself without massive gover…

Agree. For a good portion of 20th century majority of such population has been able to find jobs in manufacturing or some sales role. While competition from Asia eroded the first sector, Internet slowly eliminates the middlemen in other sectors. Travel agencies and newspapers first, retail associates, car salesmen and real estate agents next.

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#82

Post by yummyfajitas »

Alex3917 wrote: post #4
patio11 wrote: post #2

I'm most worried not for the numbers as for the corrosive effect long periods of unemployment have on employability. You lose the simple habits which are required for lots of gainful employment, such as "getting up before 9 AM consistently" and "working mostly non-stop for 8 hours a day". I see this in a lot of these articles where folks will, e.g., claim they applied for 15 jobs in 3 weeks. At some point the new nor…

I think the bigger picture is that at least in the US, most of these people will never get middle class jobs because they just aren't smart enough to really contribute anything. If unemployment among youths is around 50% or whatever today, then just imagine what it will be in ten years when gas is $8 per gallon and we're facing food shortages. There is simply no way this is going to solve itself without massive gover…

This is the Zero Marginal Product hypothesis. Assorted econobloggers have been engaging in quite a bit of discussion of it. For more info:

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/01...

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/07...

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/07/the_zmp_hypothe....

It's certainly consistent with the data. The data shows that corporate profit, GDP and industrial production have all recovered. This is exactly what you expect when a recession ends and aggregate demand recovers. However, employment did not recover, suggesting that the workers unable to find a job have a marginal product close to zero.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#83

Post by Alex3917 »

maurycy wrote: post #38
Alex3917 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the bigger picture is that at least in the US, most of these people will never get middle class jobs because they just aren't smart enough to really contribute anything. If unemployment among youths is around 50% or whatever today, then just imagine what it will be in ten years when gas is $8 per gallon and we're facing food shortages. There is simply no way this is going to solve itself without massive gover…

Alex, you might be interested in Lang, Siniver, 2011[1]. What is interesting in this particular study how quickly the market acquires the information. So, if the unemployment is a global phenomenon across many different markets, in the same civilisation, it is possible that it changed somewhat permanently. (just an idea; I'm not fully convinced as well) [1]. http://papers.nber.org/papers/w16730

"Our results are therefore consistent with the view that employers use education information to screen workers but that the market acquires information fairly rapidly."

I'm potentially interested in reading this but I have to ask, are they measuring the acquisition of information by changes in employment status and salary? Because if so this seems like begging the question.

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#84

Post by Alex3917 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #82
Alex3917 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the bigger picture is that at least in the US, most of these people will never get middle class jobs because they just aren't smart enough to really contribute anything. If unemployment among youths is around 50% or whatever today, then just imagine what it will be in ten years when gas is $8 per gallon and we're facing food shortages. There is simply no way this is going to solve itself without massive gover…

This is the Zero Marginal Product hypothesis. Assorted econobloggers have been engaging in quite a bit of discussion of it. For more info: http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/01... http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/07... http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/07/the_zmp_hypothe.... It's certainly consistent with the data. The data shows that corporate profit, GDP and in…

Thanks, I'll read over these on the weekend.

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#85

Post by mikecarlucci »

rorrr wrote: post #65

Anther problem is the education that people choose. The world is full of "VCR repairmen", while everyone is using disposable bluray players. I see it again and again, students pick silly, simple or just useless degrees, such as * philosophy * international relations (every single one of those wants to work for the UN, maybe 0.001% ends up there). * arts, all kinds * history (how many historians do we really need) Don…

Not to troll, but Thomas Jefferson, Ben Franklin, Leonardo DaVinci etc. were all technical people with understanding of philosophy, art, history, mathematics. Obviously these are cherry-picked examples, but having only technical knowledge isn't a great solution either.

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#86

Post by andresmh »

throw02082011 wrote: post #63
pzxc wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never understood how being "overqualified" is a problem. No one says you have to list your degree or make mention of it. Just pretend you don't have one? What am I missing here? Are people too egotistical to accept a job at McDonald's when they have a degree? It has always been my opinion that any job is better than no job. If you need money, take what work you can. There's nothing that says you can't keep looki…

As someone who has omitted their college degree and left off that I'm currently in a grad program, you try that in retail and they ask "well, what have you done all this time?" The time needs to be accounted for.

Could you say that you were helping a family business or living abroad?

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#87

Post by yummyfajitas »

scotty79 wrote: post #54

Our wealth has grown exponentially in recent decades but poor people still work 9 to 5 or more. Wealth is manufactured by machines not people. Some generation has to close the gap between how wealthy society is and how much average member of society has to work for same basic needs. You can't make basic necessities cost always nearly same amount of work because that work thanks to technology is producing more and mor…

Our wealth has grown exponentially in recent decades but poor people still work 9 to 5 or more.

This is a myth. The poor work very little - their full time labor force participation rate is only 10% or so (this includes both the employed and unemployed). 80% of the poor don't work at all.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswp2007.pdf

(Before you criticize this statistic as being too simple, go see this thread where I answer many objections: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2129845

In particular, this is not a result of the poor being disproportionately old or young.)

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#88

Post by cosmicray »

_delirium wrote: post #3
patio11 wrote: post #2

I'm most worried not for the numbers as for the corrosive effect long periods of unemployment have on employability. You lose the simple habits which are required for lots of gainful employment, such as "getting up before 9 AM consistently" and "working mostly non-stop for 8 hours a day". I see this in a lot of these articles where folks will, e.g., claim they applied for 15 jobs in 3 weeks. At some point the new nor…

(Relatedly: some days I wonder if the single most effective form of unemployment relief would be teaching people that sending out resumes is for suckers.) The welfare-reform efforts of the past 15-20 years in most western countries have tended to do exactly the opposite, oddly enough. Out of a worry that people were just receiving benefits without really looking for work, you must now demonstrate that you're actively…

Perhaps the time has arrived to dust off the old operating manuals for the CCC and the WPA. For those who don't recognize the acronyms, those were 2 of the major 'New Deal' programs during the 1930's era Great Depression. They were intended to get people back to work, and to try to restart the economy.

The general objective was to renew/refresh our public infrastructure (via WPA) and to reforest-ate clear cut areas and improve problematic drainage (via CCC). Both programs were accused of being socialist (and perhaps they were).

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#89

Post by jkeel »

rorrr wrote: post #65

Anther problem is the education that people choose. The world is full of "VCR repairmen", while everyone is using disposable bluray players. I see it again and again, students pick silly, simple or just useless degrees, such as * philosophy * international relations (every single one of those wants to work for the UN, maybe 0.001% ends up there). * arts, all kinds * history (how many historians do we really need) Don…

I' also add that these may seem "silly" on the cover but can be put to good use later on. I've known several successful managers (including our current Director) who have their undergrad degree in philosophy, albeit coupled with an MBA.

Generally, I think the more well rounded a person is they can usually lead a more successful (fulfilling) life.

Re: The Youth Unemployment Bomb

#90

Post by gaius »

rdouble wrote: post #30
gaius wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but Charles Dickens made that politically impossible. "Are there no workhouses?" Etc.

WPA was long after Dickens.

I don't know what that is, some American thing?

Here in the UK every time it's suggested the word "Dickensian" gets bandied about and that's that.

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