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An update on YC China

blog.ycombinator.com

81–90 of 403 posts

Re: An update on YC China

#81
post #39
post #26

I mean theres no place for western companies in China as seen times and times again. This literally happens all the time

GM, Tesla and Apple are making tons of money in China now. Even Google and Facebook are making over hundreds of millions of ads money each year from China. Yes, Google and Facebook still have branches in China and make a lot of money.

Unlike GM, Tesla and Apple, Facebook is not making money by operating in the Chinese market. Facebook is making money from Chinese advertisers via resellers. It's Chinese capital being exported to Facebook outside of the country, for a service operating entirely outside of China.

Equivalent to an advertiser in China going through a local ad broker that works with the NY Times, to place an ad in the NY Times in a paper sold in NYC.

Re: An update on YC China

#82
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These criticisms don't even make sense. YC is announcing that they're not expanding formally into China, which is something China very much would want them to do.

Until they make it be partnered with a local company, which eventually forces a majority ownership, spins out, and YC is left with nothing.

Again: they are withdrawing from China. There's nothing to spin out.

Re: An update on YC China

#83

Strange optics not to mention the elephant in the room. I could see them hitting some roadblocks and wanting to try again to get into China, but that would be a reasonable thing to come out and say. It also would be reasonable to come out and say they've changed their minds due to political climate or some other risks. Instead its... the new guy is busy?

> It also would be reasonable to come out and say they've changed their minds due to political climate or some other risks.

This is no different then when HR calls you in before you're terminated. Anything you say can, and will, be used against you so no point in saying anything.

If (when?) they decide to take another crack at things it'd be helpful to not be on the record about anything.

Re: An update on YC China

#84
post #79
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would you think of a VC who was investing with a thesis that enlarging+enriching the Chinese bourgeoisie (i.e. entrepreneurs) would give Chinese citizens as a whole more power relative to the Chinese state, and thus likely accelerate the shift toward more democratic forms of government that seems to inevitably come to "developed nations" once they have enough people who've "got theirs" and now want to signal the…

I'd say they're delusional. Everyone made this assumption in the '90s, that prosperity necessarily lead to freedom. 20 years later that assumption doesn't look so good.

Maybe people in the 90s assumed "prosperity" in general would be a panacea; but the hypothesis here isn't really to do with GDP more generally (because that can all be generated and captured by the state, as in middle-eastern oil-producing countries) but rather to do with a certain inevitable demographic shift.

China has already started on a shift called industrialization: a massive demographic shift from poverty-class subsistence farmers, to middle-class industrial workers (e.g. construction workers.)

The next shift after industrialization is a mass promotion out of the working-class and into the middle-class (a.k.a. the bourgeoisie: small-business owners/entrepreneurs), where industrial jobs dry up, people mostly live in cities, and everyone goes into business for themselves to serve a specialized role in a city. Accompanying this is, also inevitably, a massive rise in political consciousness, because you need to study the political climate to effectively run a business.

Now, that second shift is far from happening in China yet. Their industrialization phase only just started 10 years ago, with a construction boom analogous to the one that the US went through in the late 1800s. It'll likely be decades more before there are no more Chinese public-infrastructure projects; before the average Chinese citizen is rich enough that everyone turns their nose up at working in the trades; before the average Chinese citizen's life-goal is to be a vlogger or whatever kids in developed countries want to do now.

But, despite that phase being a ways away, it's also seemingly inevitable. We've never seen a country get stuck in the industrialization phase once it's truly begun. It's finite by definition—the same forces that create this phase of growth, push a country through and past it.

The only deciding factor on how long it takes a state to become democratized, in this theory, is how long it takes to reach the industrialization phase. It took China a long, long time (probably because Communism put them at a standstill in accruing the necessary resources and talent to begin having a working class at all; they had to relent and do some top-down state capitalism just to get anywhere at all.)

And many states are stuck lower down the development path, where they'll likely never reach industrialization without outside help. That "help" usually coming in the form of the world deciding to target them as the newest cheap labor outsourcer. (Luckily, once China is post-industrial, it too will be a labor outsourcer, not a labor supplier.)

Re: An update on YC China

#85
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until they make it be partnered with a local company, which eventually forces a majority ownership, spins out, and YC is left with nothing.

Again: they are withdrawing from China. There's nothing to spin out.

China is the ultimate long game and they tend to have long memories as well.

Re: An update on YC China

#86
post #49

Strange optics not to mention the elephant in the room. I could see them hitting some roadblocks and wanting to try again to get into China, but that would be a reasonable thing to come out and say. It also would be reasonable to come out and say they've changed their minds due to political climate or some other risks. Instead its... the new guy is busy?

What elephant? Can you be more specific about what's controversial about this? Expansion into China would at least be a coherent basis for this stuff; then, sure, you'd want to know what compromises YC might be forced to make to stay in the good graces of their new host. This is YC withdrawing from China.

Totalitarian actions of the regime primarily against Muslim minorities (Uighurs), including concentration camps with >1M people.

Re: An update on YC China

#87

Strange optics not to mention the elephant in the room. I could see them hitting some roadblocks and wanting to try again to get into China, but that would be a reasonable thing to come out and say. It also would be reasonable to come out and say they've changed their minds due to political climate or some other risks. Instead its... the new guy is busy?

Why do you think it's political climate that changed YC's mind? With or without political climate being an issue, doing business in China is different and relies on of relationship building that takes a long time to nurture. It might just be hard!

Re: An update on YC China

#88
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he pulled out over China's human rights issues, I have a newfound respect for PG. Very few leaders today are willing to support basic rights of fellow human beings over personal profits.

What would you think of a VC who was investing with a thesis that enlarging+enriching the Chinese bourgeoisie (i.e. entrepreneurs) would give Chinese citizens as a whole more power relative to the Chinese state, and thus likely accelerate the shift toward more democratic forms of government that seems to inevitably come to "developed nations" once they have enough people who've "got theirs" and now want to signal the…

They’re delusional and insane—the definition of insanity being doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. That model is exactly what the last 30 years of cooperation with China was meant to be, but all it has done is strengthened a kleptocratic, increasingly paranoid, bloody dictatorship.

Re: An update on YC China

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly is the elephant in the room? U.S. tariffs? Honk Kong unrest? IP violations?

The ~1 million Uighurs the Chinese government has in concentration camps. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/world/asia/ch...

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