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Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

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81–90 of 182 posts

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#81
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Land based ones are often on plains or ridges. Steady and unimpeded wind is why aerial and offshore have better EROI.

Do land-based ones compete with agricultural usage?

No. In fact, they make marginal agricultural operations economically viable by providing a second source of income to the farmer/land owner.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#82
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For comparison, cats kill between 1.4 billion and 3.7 billion birds a year ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/outdo... )

Right, and wind constitutes less than 5% of total energy production. I'm not anti-wind, but we can't pretend massive growth in wind production will have no impact.

So what you're saying is that with 100% wind production, it's now millions of birds. That's still about 3 orders of magnitude less of an impact than cats.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#83
post #58

This is nuts. I wonder what the effect of spending $1T on nuclear would be in comparison. I bet it's enough money to get to practical nuclear fusion in a decade, which would largely obviate the need in most other energy generation methods.

Looks like a single fission plant costs around 6 to 9 billion and construction costs tend to go up. There's not a lot of room for iteration and learning from experience; you have to get it right the first time. Compare that with a competitive industry that's manufacturing in bulk and improving every year. Where do the lines cross?

When you spend $1T on building nuclear plants, you will be manufacturing in bulk and improving every year.

Let's assume that a single fission plant costs $5B (if you're building hundreds of them, you can take advantage of some economies of scale). For $1T, you can build 200 of them. New fission plants have something like 2 GW capacity on average. 2 GW times 200 is 400 GW.

Now, US uses 13 quads of BTU worth of electricity annually.[1]. 13 quads a year is 434 GW of power on average. So, we could basically cover our energy needs with $1T worth of nuclear plants, if you average things out and ignore peaking needs. Most certainly, however, if you add $1T worth of nuclear to our current system, as opposed to adding $1T worth of wind energy, we'll pretty much be able to go off fossil fuels in electricity generation altogether, with already existing water and renewable generation. The resulting system will be much better for environment (less land used for nuclear plants than for equivalent $1T worth of wind turbines), safer (wind turbines are more dangerous per kWh produced than nuclear, people die installing those every year), and more stable (the supply will be extremely steady, and will not depend on weather fluctuations).

[1] - https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained//us-energy-facts/

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#84
post #56

how "stupid" would it be to turn all building roofs as solar surfaces and wind tunnels ?

What others said, plus the fact that most municipalities don't allow it. As a rule of thumb, the distance from a turbine to a permanent structure must be larger than the height of the turbine.

Ducted turbines can be installed on rooftops. They are far less obtrusive.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got to be incredibly concerned about feral domesticated cats and window collisions, which kill 1,000-10,000 times more birds annually (on the upper end between the two orders of magnitude) between them.

A common argument; Michael Schellenberger addresses it here: https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_why_renewabl... Basically, cats kills sparrows and other small and extremely prolific urban birds. Those birds aren't what wind turbines threaten. Wind turbines threaten larger prey birds like owls, eagles, falcons, etc.

How many owls and eagles are anywhere near offshore wind turbines?

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#86
post #53

Will wind turbines accelerate climate change? edit: during its exploitation I was involved in design of Wind Farms and they affect wind directions at least locally. Naturally, they change climate locally. The question is how local is not global enough.

Interesting question, seems it's still open but has been found worthy of study. There are probably research groups working on it right now. Review paper (2015): 'Impact of wind-energy generation on climate: A rising spectre' https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211... 'Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale windfarms' https://www.pnas.org/content/101/46/16115.short#sec-2 'P…

Thanks for the links! The "green ... greeen!" guys just downvoted me to hell.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#87
post #60
post #58

This is nuts. I wonder what the effect of spending $1T on nuclear would be in comparison. I bet it's enough money to get to practical nuclear fusion in a decade, which would largely obviate the need in most other energy generation methods.

It's going to take a lot more than $1T and a decade for fusion to be cost-competitive with wind and solar.

How are wind and solar cost-competitive when they can exist in Germany only with extreme high subsidies?

Look at the new windfarm called "Wikinger" that Germany built near the island of Ruegen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore-Windpark_Wikinger

Cost: 1.4 billion Euros Lifetime: 20 years Power: 350 MW Max. capacity: 0.4 (40%) Price at the electricity stock exchange Leipzig: 36 Euro/MWh

Thus: 3500.42436520*36 = 883 million Euros

Result: 517 million Euros loss

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here you go[1]. 12-15 years [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/windpower/9770...

Trouble is, the "Renewable Energy Foundation" is really an anti-wind farm lobbying group set up by Noel Edmonds. Presumably a NIMBY reaction to some plan for a wind farm near wherever he lives. I'll need some validation of any "study" from them. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/may/18/ren...

20 years is a common number that is used for windparks and solar cells. A lot of sources cite that number.

And that with capacity factors ranging between 10% to maximal 50%.

Modern nuclear power plants (VVER-1200) reach 60 years of lifetime and have a capacity factor of 90%.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#89
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like a single fission plant costs around 6 to 9 billion and construction costs tend to go up. There's not a lot of room for iteration and learning from experience; you have to get it right the first time. Compare that with a competitive industry that's manufacturing in bulk and improving every year. Where do the lines cross?

When you spend $1T on building nuclear plants, you will be manufacturing in bulk and improving every year. Let's assume that a single fission plant costs $5B (if you're building hundreds of them, you can take advantage of some economies of scale). For $1T, you can build 200 of them. New fission plants have something like 2 GW capacity on average. 2 GW times 200 is 400 GW. Now, US uses 13 quads of BTU worth of electri…

Pretty much my thinking as well. It's not a question of not investing in clean energy, it's a question which is a better bang for the buck and which gets us to fully carbon free energy faster and more reliably. Economies of scale would drive the costs of power plants down like you wouldn't believe. And then there's the secondary effect of more investment into nuclear physics research, which, after we figure out fusion will make carbon based energy completely obsolete everywhere, forever.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#90
Oil and gas ("energy") companies are investing a lot into wind energy. They know they have to adopt. In the end they just want profits and they have the capital to make the right investments. I really wish the environmentalist movement saw them as just another money hungry corporation instead some evil villain out to destroy the planet. They would love to diversify their revenue stream, now is a good time to work with them because of the huge fossil fuel demand and the political pressure to wind down dependence on it.

On a separate note, I have two questions: why don't wind turbinea have more than one "wheel"? And does anyone know if ground tethered floating turbines (like airships) will be commercially viable?

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