81–90 of 209 posts
Ten years later... it's still very true :)
How things change and end up repeating the same old mistakes.
I have a question for those who were there at the very beginning of the internet. I heard that many were skeptical about both personal computers and the internet.. did it feel the same as it does right now with crypto-currency/quantum-computing? I wasn't there, but on my side, it feels like people were able to use internet right from the beginning, whereas there's a bigger leap to using crypto/quantum. Is it just tha…
I was there in early 1990s, and it was completely different. The immediate benefits of the Internet were obvious, and much more interesting than any theoretical "take over the world" growth story. People were willing to tackle slow connections, bad UIs and device configuration hell so that they could get chatting on IRC or posting on Usenet or downloading files from weird/shady FTP servers. With cryptocurrency, there…
You really should look into that tech (Blockchain, DLT) a bit deeper. This sounds exactly like the "It's just a toy it's never gonna change the world." that people said about literally anything that changed the world. Yet that toy is here since 10+ years and it's not going away anytime soon. (Not talking about Bitcoin that could still end anyday)
The speculation/trading/scams etc. are the "kids" playing with the toy. One day value will move like data and people will question why it took so long to implement this. Exchanging data for value will be normal and young people will ask how it ever could work without that. Kids will aks if it's true that back in the days people who inserted data into the internet had to pay for it and not the people who consumed the data. The internet really works backwards because we do not yet have the "internet of value". The whole internet runs on ads instead.
As always when it comes to this topic I suggest David Schwartz's speak at We are Developers - World Congress Berlin https://youtu.be/Lxqz_NlX3GI
I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…
By this test, is Lego the next big thing?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The real test, I think, is something that has genuinely useful applications to anyone with a little bit of vision. Big entrenched players are unable to see the next big thing, because they see the world through the glasses of their successful business. Microsoft for example almost missed the internet, and suddenly realized it in 1995. I believe Bill Gates was quoted as saying it was just a fad. The funny thing is tha…
> Smart phones sold in unit volumes that dwarfed PC unit volumes. Popcorn sold in unit volumes even higher than that, but so what? These aren't comparable things.
1. They do the same things. Both are general purpose computers. For some use cases, they both work fine.
2. They're about the same cost: ~$800 or so. But that's comparing flagship smartphone costs with entry-level desktop PC costs.
I suppose from hte perspective of a large company, a smartphone sale seems like it might be more or less valuable than a desktop PC sale depending on a variety of factors. So I think it's safe to say they are similarly comparable in that sense.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was there in early 1990s, and it was completely different. The immediate benefits of the Internet were obvious, and much more interesting than any theoretical "take over the world" growth story. People were willing to tackle slow connections, bad UIs and device configuration hell so that they could get chatting on IRC or posting on Usenet or downloading files from weird/shady FTP servers. With cryptocurrency, there…
>With cryptocurrency, there's nothing new or interesting you can actually do, no meaningful human connections to be made. It's just speculating on a made-up growth story, like penny stocks you can trade 24/7 — but we already had penny stocks and boiler room scams. You really should look into that tech (Blockchain, DLT) a bit deeper. This sounds exactly like the "It's just a toy it's never gonna change the world." tha…
How is this different from using a credit card to e.g. purchase a streaming movie? Is it just more seamless? Or does the fact that there isn't a centralized bank behind the transaction somehow significant for the consumer or business?
(I'm really just trying to understand this btw)
> Kids will aks if it's true that back in the days people who inserted data into the internet had to pay for it and not the people who consumed the data.
If I understand correctly, the current situation is that there are free services where you can upload/insert data, free services where you can download/consume—and there are paid services for both too.
Could you elaborate on what the difference would be there? Anyone who creates/hosts content does so for free, and the people who consume it always pay?
I have a question for those who were there at the very beginning of the internet. I heard that many were skeptical about both personal computers and the internet.. did it feel the same as it does right now with crypto-currency/quantum-computing? I wasn't there, but on my side, it feels like people were able to use internet right from the beginning, whereas there's a bigger leap to using crypto/quantum. Is it just tha…
In the very beginning, it was restricted to a very, very small list of users in the military and colleges. At the time it seemed like a very useful tool and pretty fun to play with. The next phase was Mosaic and then Netscape creating the web, which also felt like a pretty neat and potentially useful toy. I remember passing around sheets of paper with URLs to type in, before there were search engines. And then it all…
Wow, what a throwback in time! I had completely forgotten that. Thanks for the sweet memories!
Also, I agree with your take. One key difference re. cryptocurrencies might be legal context however. Internet wasn't stepping on governments toes, more like disruption of the telco sector (which was already focused on emerging mobile at the time, a decade prior to smartphones). I'm not so sure the road is wide open for alternative currencies, because central banks and, oh, stability of the economy etc. It's a much tougher sell.
Blockchain itself however, the tech, may have killer-apps and uses — either as an evolution of currencies, or decoupled entirely from 'currency' (trustless secured distributed databases may fit many needs IMHO, notably for social purposes like contracts or unhackable communication).
Instagram is the most recent example of a revolutionary toy - when everyone thought social media was a puzzle solved by Facebook, Instagram cut the fat and became a more elegant tool to getting a message across (and making some money in the process).
I could see Slack's fun approach to workflow automation and collaboration take off, but maybe I'm biased by what I'm investing my own time into learning.
I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…
By this test, is Lego the next big thing?
of course, these hypothetical legos would need plumbing and electrical infrastructure and maybe a few other things ;)
This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…
I can see curren-gen VR and AR games leading to next-gen "real AR" glasses with an impact on far more than just gaming.
I see it starting with small tweaks to reality...a dingy concrete sidewalk replaced with a golden brick road. Empty walls in an apartment awash with art, scenic views, and/or entertainment.
Imo if a statement about the future doesn't contain word "probably" - it is probably wrong.