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MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

octopus.com

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Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#81
Ha, I'm re-reading The Lean Startup and this paragraph seems like a contradiction in terms of what an MVP is:

We decided to build an MVP based on our best estimates and test the market that way. The goal was to launch something in 6 months and test if the demand was there; and if it wasn’t, we’d only wasted 6 months. We chose to optimize for getting to market quickly rather than worrying about how much it would cost.

Contrast it to what the Lean Startup principles say:

The Lean Startup methodology has as a premise that every startup is a grand experiment that attempts to answer a question. The question is not "Can this product be built?" Instead, the questions are "Should this product be built?" and "Can we build a sustainable business around this set of products and services?"

So instead of doing what a lean startup would do, they did the opposite. Let's see what they could have done instead...

"How many customers will actually use it?"

- Lean startup: create a signup page with a mock up or landing page and a few buttons that work and every potential behind a "coming soon" screen - Their approach: actually build the whole product and then launch it and see who's interested

"What is it all going to cost?" - Lean startup: As little as possible to discover the insights we need to iterate and evolve the product - Their approach: well we already paid the salary for our engineers and we've given them six months, so what's half the salary+benefits of X number of engineers?

"What should we charge for it? Is it going to cover the infrastructure costs?" - Lean startup: experiment on costing and pricing as you go along - Their approach: give away the product for a 30-day trial at a high cost to ourselves! Unbelievably expensive customer acquisition costs.

Reference: http://theleanstartup.com/principles

And now I guess I've truly learned why product managers exist. Someone let this crazy experiment run for six months. You're saying in six months you couldn't spend one month finding the simplest/cheapest ways to test these various hypothesis?

$100k customer acquisition spend is insane.

The whole post is just a lesson in contradicting what an MVP minimal viable product is.

Even when we were building v1, the team knew it wasn’t the ideal architecture. Before v1 even launched, there were plenty of conversations in our Slack about whether we should port Octopus to Linux and run it on Kubernetes, or see if we could run it on Windows within Kubernetes or use Nomad by Hashicorp?

Lol, engineers always want something fun to work on and sometimes it turns out to be a great idea. But they porting software for an MVP? Why not evolve the new product so that it generates more revenue or reduce the costs in some other way instead of talking about porting and rewriting?

If you're at an established company that has money to burn, go ahead, read the whole blog series. If you're trying to create a new startup, whether it's a product or service, avoid this article or read it as a warning. When you've spent as much as a decent engineer costs in one month...something's gone off the rails.

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#82
post #2

"To bring Octopus Cloud to market quickly, we did the simplest thing possible; we took our self-hosted Octopus Server product and bundled it into an EC2 instance for each customer that signed up. We had to make changes to the product, but mostly around permissions." I have used octopus and I could have told them that they can't lift-and-shift. The amount of requests the app makes is ridiculous, the way they wrote the…

The best part is the "simplest thing possible". They actually didn't do that at all. I hate to dog-pile on this team, but damn, 100k spend in a month isn't simple at all!

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#83
post #13

I have a streaming multimedia app that I want to launch. It ingests from the client, does some transformations, then sends it back to them (or to other parties) in realtime. It's pretty novel though - Snapchat adjacent. I can't do it clientside. Nature of the problem. I'm writing it in Rust, so it's relatively fast. But throwing thousands of people at it will still require extreme scale. I'm going to use K8S horizont…

Go simpler and go cheaper. Why not do real-time processing for all of 2 minutes. That's about the length of an elevator pitch and shouldn't cost so much.

Or limit the number of beta users there can be.

Or work some freelance jobs for a few months and save up the cash and during that time pitch to investors. As you progressively have more cash you can hire an engineer to part-time hack on cool demos or to give you the opportunity to increase the number of beta users.

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the lesson: The most obvious advice isn't obvious. If one goes through https://startupschool.org/library one realises how much of the advise ought to be common knowledge and common sense, but that's the thing, folks ignore it all the time . Another mistake, it was pointed out by Kevin Hale, iirc, this year at startupschool, that founders make is they think their pricing model (or their UX) is a key differentia…

What part of spending $100 to get $10 being a bad idea is not obvious?

The part where it:

* Lets you easily explore a new business offering

* Without investing a large amount of engineering time

As soon as they realized they had significant demand and horrible unit economics, they should have revised their cost structure/app architecture.

Which is exactly what this post is about.

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#86

Rent dedicated server from OVH, install ESXi, hire a sysadmin. You will save huge amount of money. Cloud can be great, but sometime it looks like people forget there are other solutions.

Dedicated servers are often so much cheaper these days, but it is not the new cloud, so a lot of startups look the other way.

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#87
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can purchase and then colocate 2x Dell R640s (8c/16t, 64gb of ram, as much NVMe storage as I can stomach) with tier 1 bandwidth billed at the 95th percentile and 24/7 remote hands support for about $150/month. The purchase price on the Dells is about $3500/ea. Total first year cost on this setup: $8,800 Total three year cost on this setup: $12,400 2x m5d.4xlarge EC2 instances (this isn't counting ingress/egress rat…

2x m5d.4xlarge EC2 instances for 3 year no-upfront reserve pricing is $20,813.76 (You should really do that). But what are you getting 2x m5d.4xlarge instances from the get go? Start with the smallest instance size your app will run on and then add them on one at a time? Need to run 10 servers in the day but only 2 at night? Then configure autoscaling to do that. What happens if you need to expand out into another pa…

also, spot instance is dead cheap. a reduction of 60-70% in cost is possible with the use of mixed reserved instances and spot instances.

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#88
I'm sorry but this was a bit of a painful read. Hindsight is 20/20 but this was pretty poor engineering and business modelling from the start.

"To ensure there was no way for one user’s data to mingle with another, each cloud instance had its own dedicated VM, database, and a large number of security configurations to prevent any funny business.". AWS has a myriad of security and isolation tools to do that in significantly better and cost efficient ways.

"Octopus Cloud customers could start a free 30-day trial, which meant that those hundreds of trial signups per month, each of which cost us $100 to host, quickly added up." So you're essentially allowing anyone to press a "Submit" button to spend $100 for you. This sort of below-cost methods to gain marketshare works for Amazon, Google, Microsoft and son because they have the deep pockets but it's a questionable strategy for smaller companies.

Re: MVPs and $100k AWS Bills: Reflections on our launch

#90
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part of spending $100 to get $10 being a bad idea is not obvious?

The part where it: * Lets you easily explore a new business offering * Without investing a large amount of engineering time As soon as they realized they had significant demand and horrible unit economics, they should have revised their cost structure/app architecture. Which is exactly what this post is about.

If I start renting Porsches for $10/day I'm going to have massive demand. When I finally build out the rest of my infrastructure, get tired of burning cash, and decide to start charging a price that reflects the true costs, the initial measure of demand is totally irrelevant.
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