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Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

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Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#81
post #78
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 91% top marginal tax rate would be a net negative on taxes, because most of the rich people would leave the country. There's a fine art to setting the tax rate at a level that people dislike, but not strongly enough to do something about it, because the other benefits of being here outweigh.

> because most of the rich people would leave the country. Yeah, the IRS doesn't care. If you are a U.S. citizen or resident alien, the rules for filing income, estate, and gift tax returns and paying estimated tax are generally the same whether you are in the United States or abroad. Your worldwide income is subject to U.S. income tax, regardless of where you reside. 1: https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-…

People and companies would systematically move overseas. People would renounce US citizenship.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#82
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because most of the rich people would leave the country. Yeah, the IRS doesn't care. If you are a U.S. citizen or resident alien, the rules for filing income, estate, and gift tax returns and paying estimated tax are generally the same whether you are in the United States or abroad. Your worldwide income is subject to U.S. income tax, regardless of where you reside. 1: https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-…

People and companies would systematically move overseas. People would renounce US citizenship.

There are many, many things that make that not as easy or desirable as you make it sound. As an extreme example, the current tariffs. Renouncing citizenship means people no longer have a right to work or travel in the US without a visa. That makes continuing business harder, and keeping family connections harder.

Keep in mind a 91% top marginal tax rate isn't an effective rate of 91%, it would only affect money over some theoretically large amount. If you made $10 million gross, it doesn't mean you take home $900k. Depending on how the rate tiers are set up, you're probably taking home multiple millions of dollars, and you can get a lot more bang for your buck with some good donating (since the higher the rate, the less it affects your bottom line). Also, maybe there's investment opportunities that allow for it to be put back into businesses as VC that also delay the tax, and allow for it to be put to use.

So the question is, would you uproot your life and move away from friends and family and make it harder to do business so that instead of taking home $4 million of your $10 million gross you take home $6 million or $7 million? Given how little utility that extra money likely has, I'm not sure many people would (especially since the bragging rights for how much they made the prior year remain unchanged).

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#83
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think car sharing will go extinct either, but be careful with your analyses. Uber and Lyft are precariously balanced on a system of ( substantial ) low-income demand, high-income demand, and subsidy. If prices rise, low-income demand plummets, ending subsidies. High-income pricing could rise significantly higher than you might expect, at which point you no longer have "ride sharing" so much as you have privat…

Car sharing? There is no sharing involved, all transactions are done with money. They're taxi dispatch services that live in a grey area of employee/contractor.

UberPool involves sharing a car with one or more customers.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#84
Wow, just kind of crazy how virtually all the top 20 Internet companies are US and China. The only other country represented is Japan with Recruit Holdings, and a huge part of that (maybe majority?) is due to them owning Indeed, which was founded in Austin.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#85
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's going to be a point where taking a scooter becomes more attractive for low income people (it's already half the price of a lyft), and then there will be a point where owning your own $400 scooter or $100 bike will make more sense rather than relying on the rental (which is normalizing the idea of riding an electric scooter/bike through a city). I wonder if these companies have dug their own grave.

Owning a bike isn't really that good for commuting. I use Citibike to go to work and pretty much anywhere else they have Citibike docks. People always ask why I don't just buy a bike. I had a bike. It got stolen. If a Citibike gets stolen, that's not my problem. Moreover, I don't have to try to take it on the train, or carry it into a building, or find a place to park it outside where it won't get stolen or vandalize…

But those shared bikes are miserable to ride. The frames are heavy and not stiff enough, no suspension, no pedal clips, etc. They're fine to go a few blocks but for anything longer it's an unpleasant experience.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#86

As the years go by, I feel more and more underwhelmed by these. It feels very surface level, handwavy. How would one execute anything but decisions based on confirmation bias using this information?

do you think they would have anything to gain by disclosing the actual nitty gritty business intelligence?

I don't know why the original comment is being downvoted. I think this is a fair point.

It should be possible to give the readers a taste of the actionable business intelligence without giving it all away, shouldn't it? They have the same thing to gain as any other company giving away demos.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#87
post #14
post #13

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years ... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long. I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new i…

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

Saying car sharing is here to stay is not the same as saying Uber and Lyft will last forever.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#88
post #13

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years ... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long. I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new i…

In a civilized world those companies should be doomed by labor laws and regulation dodging anyways.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#90
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it's just me, but I didn't understand the (slideshow) interface. I saw "click to begin" and I saw a down arrow, so I put the two together and clicked "down" to begin. Then I saw a list of archives, and if I continued down, it ended. I assumed I had to click 2019, so I did that and I was back where I began. It took me trying that twice before I realized I had to click... anything except the arrow.

Took me way longer than it should to figure it out. Then the slideshow took over my browser history :(

It's poorly done for a high profile report about the internet.
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