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Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

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Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#81

Post by chr1 »

stevenwoo wrote: post #62
CPLX wrote: post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

There's a bit of that in this older article. The problem of spoiling of fresh water is insurmountable. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/miami-ho...

Why is it insurmountable? With cheap solar energy desalination becomes cheaper. And even without that countries like Israel now use desalinated water for 70% of their total water use.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#82

Post by ianai »

kaitai wrote: post #67
bluntfang wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.

Depends on your age; heat-related deaths among the elderly and other vulnerable populations are up in several areas. Is RE Reunion? If so, in a place like that if nighttime temps start failing to drop humans start experiencing heat stress.

RE = real estate. Modernizing real estate isn’t common anywhere I’ve lived/visited. Modern RE almost exclusively exists in recent developments.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#83

Post by ethbro »

kibwen wrote: post #27
cs702 wrote: post #24

As often seems to be the case in many parts of the US, the city of Miami is unlikely to muster the political will to do anything about this existential threat until after the city's businesses and residents have suffered serious, irreversible consequences. Think permanent loss. Few things can create as much political will as an irreversible crisis. By then, of course, it will likely be too late for prevention, so the…

Honest question: has anyone, engineer or otherwise, yet come to the rescue of New Orleans in the fourteen years since Katrina? The flooding there, and our response to it, is so far our best benchmark of what we can expect as sea levels keep rising.

$14B in new Army Corp of Engineers work, in and around New Orleans?

Doing work isn't sexy, and it doesn't make national news media, but it's what gets shit done.

And the Army Corp of Engineers has its management problems, but it also tends to be caught between "We don't believe anything will happen, so we're not giving you enough funding / control, but are giving you an unfunded mandate" and "Something happened! How did you let this happen after we trusted you to fix it?!"

In reality, they do a lot of good work.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#84

Post by alvalentini »

kaitai wrote: post #67
bluntfang wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.

Depends on your age; heat-related deaths among the elderly and other vulnerable populations are up in several areas. Is RE Reunion? If so, in a place like that if nighttime temps start failing to drop humans start experiencing heat stress.

Well, I won't die from a heatwave but without AC the impact on my wellbeing, not to mention productivity, will be considerable.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#85

Post by selimthegrim »

rayiner wrote: post #57
EliRivers wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

Politicians can’t do anything about physics and geology conspiring to wipe your city of the map. Only scientists and engineers can. (And if they don’t have a solution for you, it’s like having cancer circa 1650. You’re SOL.)

Say what you want about New Orleans, at least the drinking water isn’t screwed.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#86

Post by selimthegrim »

ethbro wrote: post #83
kibwen wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question: has anyone, engineer or otherwise, yet come to the rescue of New Orleans in the fourteen years since Katrina? The flooding there, and our response to it, is so far our best benchmark of what we can expect as sea levels keep rising.

$14B in new Army Corp of Engineers work, in and around New Orleans? Doing work isn't sexy, and it doesn't make national news media, but it's what gets shit done. And the Army Corp of Engineers has its management problems, but it also tends to be caught between "We don't believe anything will happen, so we're not giving you enough funding / control, but are giving you an unfunded mandate" and "Something happened! How…

Seeing as they failed New Orleans in the first place with the levee pilings, 14 billion is penance, not anything forward looking

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#87

Post by ianai »

desdiv wrote: post #72
bluntfang wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.

Climate change is both: 1. A slow and steady increase in the average temperature. 2. A rapid increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Point 1 doesn't force people to buy ACs, but Point 2 will. For example, you generally don't need AC in San Francisco, but a heat wave in 2017 killed 14 people[0]. As the frequency of heatwaves increases, people will need to equip themselves against the temperature _extremes…

I’ve definitely personally seen the affects of climate change. Many people should be able to same the same who have lived decades in the Southwest US. Fires are more common, they’re more often extremely damaging, record setting summers year after year, and so on.

As a side note, I’m offended by the commenter above you. As if someone else is going to be able to tell me what I’ve witnessed over the course of my life.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#88

Post by vonmoltke »

ethbro wrote: post #77
jdhn wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To imply that Florida is the sole reason that the National Flood Insurance Program will stay is really out there. Other states along the Gulf are big recipients, and there's always the chance that a hurricane will swing up the eastern seaboard, in which case everything from Georgia to at least North Carolina will be using that program. There's also the chance of inland flooding if there's enough snowmelt or rain so t…

I mean, the southern tip of FL, the outer banks of NC, and the mid gulf coast really are the problem [1, NOAA, Return Period Between Major Hurricanes] The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names. "In particular, the overall shortfall of $1.4 billion is attributable largely to premiums’ falling short of expected c…

> The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names.

The CBO is calling out FEMA's estimates of future losses as being too low. As far as the administrators of the program are concerned, premiums are set appropriately. This report doesn't really apply to this discussion, other than to highlight that the coastal counties cost significantly more (and pay significantly more) than the inland counties covered by the program.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#89

Post by wallace_f »

cplantijn wrote: post #79
mcculley wrote: post #31

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I've worked as an intern at a commercial property company (Colliers International) several years ago. One thing I've learned is that commercial property (be it office or residential) is always being sold. They are essentially large bonds you can touch and live in.Party A develops or buys the building, gains an annuity via rent, attempts to raise rent slowly over a few years (thus increasing the value of the property)…

Markets are made by both buyers and sellers. Demand is ostensibly driven by consumers, and value created by meeting consumer demands.

Are consumers demanding the above with their money and not just their mouths? I doubt it.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#90

Post by ethbro »

selimthegrim wrote: post #86
ethbro wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$14B in new Army Corp of Engineers work, in and around New Orleans? Doing work isn't sexy, and it doesn't make national news media, but it's what gets shit done. And the Army Corp of Engineers has its management problems, but it also tends to be caught between "We don't believe anything will happen, so we're not giving you enough funding / control, but are giving you an unfunded mandate" and "Something happened! How…

Seeing as they failed New Orleans in the first place with the levee pilings, 14 billion is penance, not anything forward looking

What would be an appropriate number, then?
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