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The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

randfishkin.com

81–90 of 96 posts

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#81
post #8
post #3

I question his (somewhat oblique) assertion that people in their 30's are too old to train effectively in new skillsets.

Absolutely. I'm in my 30s and haven't noticed any decrease in my ability to continue learning. It's definitely a challenge to discard your old mental models if/when they start to become hindrances, but far from impossible. My Mom (nearly 60) went back to school last year to learn occupational therapy, and has been doing great. It's not rocket surgery by any stretch, but it's exactly the kind of retraining that's rele…

It's definitely a challenge to discard your old mental models if/when they start to become hindrances, but far from impossible.

I think this is actually the most important skill one develops by constantly reading up and playing with new technologies and languages. Just as mathematics is as much about learning to reason about things as it is about the particular theorems you prove, learning about technologies and languages and ideas is constant exercise for your brain to absorb new models and reconcile them with ones it has already internalized. Discarding old ones isn't a big deal, because you've been doing that almost continuously anyway. But, like everything else in this discussion, it requires a certain amount of willpower and ability not to take one's own comfortable position for granted.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#82
post #79
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not every imbalance is due to the active discrimination of some powerful class over the "little guy," as popular as it seems to be to scream that whenever imbalances are discovered. The problems are usually not that simple, and attempting to wallpaper over them with simplistic declaration like that people discriminate as an end to unabashed narcissistic bigotry I think gets in the way of really finding our root cause…

I've worked for a series of employers whose motto is "be as little as you can be". For instance, one place was a relatively young job shop that spent freely on cheap praise, pizza, junk food, cookies and such, but didn't want to invest in my well being or professional development in any way. (For instance, health insurance, sending me to a conference, etc.) The general pattern is that there's a glass ceiling that you…

So far as being angry, Americans should be getting angry -- 30 years of conservative orthodoxy have all but destroyed the American Dream.

They should be angry, but at themselves. They were marketed an image of a perfect, prosperous future, and then acted all appalled when the realization came up somewhat short of the Dream. The American Dream you speak of is an ideal, but is nowhere near an entitlement, and certainly nothing other people are under the obligation to guarantee for those who didn't get theirs. On average, you will end up better than your parents through hard work and diligence; but shit does happen, and our attempts to counteract that are arbitrary at best. We can't make the world fair; developing an antagonistic attitude, and expecting payment for a broken marketing-slogan-turned-assumed-promise, threatens to drag everyone down. Which of these is more fair, I wonder?

I see a lot of complaining about my position in your comment but I'm not seeing what you say the root cause is... I'd like to hear that.

I'm not certain what the root cause is, to be honest. You have the tone of someone who feels severely cheated, and with a desire to take it to those whom you feel cheated you. You have certain expectations of the way things ought to be, and seem convinced to at least a certain degree that there is a group behind the curtain manipulating things such that your expectations don't come to pass.

In the words of the late Eric Naggum: if this is not what you expected, please alter your expectations.

You claim one of your prior employers didn't want to invest in your well-being or professional development in any way. Do you feel employers ought to do these sorts of things, and not just as perks to entice you to work there? Would you leave an employer that didn't for one that did? Is this not an option for people in general? Or do you believe that people are trapped in whatever jobs they land, and that, as a result, we can't reasonably make them responsible for their own professional well-being?

As for chasing young people away, they're chasing themselves away.

Not from what I've been able to gather from the youngsters I work with. They're scared shitless of the fire-and-brimstone accounts told to them by people who have spent the last thirty years cataloging every moment they've felt screwed, and counter-balancing that with an empty catalog of anything good. It leaves me with a lot of work to do, to be honest, because they are honestly as drawn to the profession from a standpoint of personal interest as I am, but they can't help but think that living as a fry cook at McDonalds might be a better way to go. I think this is a shame; I can't help but think you believe this is anything but.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#83
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ad hominem, try again.

Pointing out biases isn't an ad hominem argument. Arguing that someone is wrong because of their biases is an ad hominem.

'Hysterical' + 'nutcases' = ad hominem. Personal attack intended to discredit the argument. I wasn't referring to the 'Austrian' part. If someone thinks Austrian economics is wrong or a flawed framework for understanding some phenomena or topic, just explain why.

Also, I'm not sure that their Austrian favoritism has any bearing on this particular claim. Arguing that the BLS is intentionally fudging and later revising data to mitigate its effect on the markets seems economic-creed-agnostic.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ad hominem, try again.

Perhaps it's just bias, but i have real trouble taking any advice or getting news from somebody who goes by the pseudonym "Tyler Durden", or anybody who ends up getting published by said person.

Agreed it's a bit silly, but it's still worth training yourself to look past that and evaluate the argument independently of its presentation and other irrevelant context.

It's hard, and I use the word 'train' intentionally b/c it requires discipline and constant attention. But I've uncovered gems of understanding over the years from doing that, that I wouldn't have otherwise, some which confirmed my worldview, and others which refuted it or expanded it.

Some people are brilliantly insightful, but just awful at communicating and presenting their understanding.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#85
post #37

This is another great opportunity to point out something rather puzzling about this recession. If you have a college degree your unemployment rate is 4.7%, with a big chunk of that 4.7% in the building related fields (architects, civil engineers, etc... are having a tough go right now). http://www.bls.gov/cps/tables.htm#monthly It's a double digit unemployment rate if you just have a high school diploma. Meanwhile ma…

The problem is that our current economic system is not ready to deal with such a high productivity level. With technology advancements eliminating entire job classes virtually overnight, in our lifetime we will reach a point where there will be way more people than necessary jobs; and the economic system will have to adapt. Two simple (not easy) solutions that come to mind are artificial population control or a diffe…

There's another solution: massive differentiation of the economy. I think this is already starting to happen (witness the success of YC). Entirely new categories of products and services are springing up, many of which are meeting plenty of demand. In the new wired world, information about these new products and services can travel fast enough for them to serve distributed clienteles; this makes them much more viable than they would have been as local businesses. In short, the long tail of business models has opened up. It is a time of mind-blowing opportunity, but the opportunities demand creativity. It's not enough to do what somebody else is doing; you have to find another workable point on the long tail.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#86
post #82
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked for a series of employers whose motto is "be as little as you can be". For instance, one place was a relatively young job shop that spent freely on cheap praise, pizza, junk food, cookies and such, but didn't want to invest in my well being or professional development in any way. (For instance, health insurance, sending me to a conference, etc.) The general pattern is that there's a glass ceiling that you…

So far as being angry, Americans should be getting angry -- 30 years of conservative orthodoxy have all but destroyed the American Dream. They should be angry, but at themselves. They were marketed an image of a perfect, prosperous future, and then acted all appalled when the realization came up somewhat short of the Dream. The American Dream you speak of is an ideal, but is nowhere near an entitlement, and certainly…

One root of the economic crisis in my mind is something like the way the game monopoly terminates -- at some point all of the money winds up in one person's hands. Some economic inequality is advantageous over no inequality (there's got to be some reward for success) but too much inequality leads to a "hard stop." We've had 30 years in which a handful of professions (finance & law particularly) have prospered while the rest of us have fallen behind. If these guys were just buying supercars, that would be one thing, but they've bought political power and made our government so ineffective that, on some days, I wonder if we'd be better off with a system like China's.

And as for being cheated, I started out my professional career with the deck stacked against me. Perhaps I was stupid to do that. Stupid to be reading Issac Asimov for a kid and to think that the child of a construction worker would have any chance to become a scientist in the 1990's.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#87
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rand, your post is repeating the same garbage about job training that's been universal for the past 30 years (See "The Job Training Charade" by Gordon Lafer,) with a little dash of age discrimination just so you'll fit in with the hacker news crowd. (I know a lot of people who are in their 30's, 40's and 50's who've successfully learned new skills) Communications of the ACM has hand-wringing articles in every issue a…

> There's no educational institution that produces people with the skills it takes to develop today's web sites. That's quite a charge. CS graduates come out with at least a grasp on database design, object-oriented design, functional programming, state machines, concurrency, type safety, program evaluation, OS fundamentals, networks, and the software development lifecycle. In addition, the curriculum leaves room for…

It depends on where you go. Jon Kleinberg's class on algorithms (and classes based on his book) is great. I don't think every CS student gets access to that quality of construction

As for database design, OO-design or concurrency, my experience is that you've got to spend two years or so building that kind of system before you're an asset instead of a liability. Some students might really get that much work in during their educations, but they won't all entirely.

In 1992 I took the only CS course that I've actually taken, and it was a course in comparative programming languages that introduced OO programming through Ada (a thoroughly obsolete form) and spent a lot of time on logic programming with Prolog. Now, I think Prolog is beautiful and my recent work has led me to believe that (20 years later) we're going to have to go more in that direction, the fact is that for practical purposes, Prolog is a dead end.

And then at the graduate level it's all about fads. At one top CS school there's nobody interested in the semantic web and description logics because that's all "dead stuff from ten years ago." In the engineering library at that school, I can find five units of modular shelves filled up with conference proceedings that plod endlessly about IP QoS, despite the fact that none of that has ever seen the light of day. Anybody with a pulse can think of ten or twenty other research areas that ought to be vastly more productive, but, somehow, resources never get allocated for them.

In terms of the actual needs of the workplace, what it takes to be productive ~is~ detailed knowledge of the details that are relevant now. Why are Facebook and Google having a crazy bidding war for employees (other than the fact that they've got too much capital?) -- it's because they're building stuff on a scale that nobody else is and you can't get experience building at that scale elsewhere.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#88
post #3

I question his (somewhat oblique) assertion that people in their 30's are too old to train effectively in new skillsets.

Original quote for reference: "but for workers in their 30s, 40s and older, learning new skills is extremely challenging (humans simply don’t learn as well or as quickly as they get older)." Apparently the author realized his mistake and redacted this from the blog post. Kudos.

-- His mistake being that he was putting himself at grave risk of a big fat lawsuit.

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#89
post #21

None of the hard-to-fill positions could be filled by someone with "training" - those are positions that require experience and talent. Both of those can be cultivated (I'm not so pessimistic to believe they can only be imported, or are formed by a population of fixed size), but training/education isn't going to do it. Which is maybe the fault of education, or maybe it's just that we ask too much of education. But tr…

Not that long ago, I read several quotes along these lines: "We have plenty of openings, and we're getting 5 times as many resumes as before, but only half as many qualified applicants." Most of the quotes were from people in medicine, IT, and similarly complex fields. The problem isn't a lack of "training" of the sort that could be covered by a community college course and a 3-month internship; the problem is a lack…

I really feel like apprenticeship could be useful in these cases. It's not like investment in employees, where if they jump ship you lost your investment - there's always the expectation that an apprentice leaves, it's a system built for informant operators.

But to be an apprentice requires more humility than most people are ready to offer - the basic equation is you get training and you pay for it by doing shitwork. Though I guess that's not too much different than an internship, except you work with a master (a person) not an institution (an employer).

Re: The irony of the US economy: no jobs and no one to hire

#90
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rand, your post is repeating the same garbage about job training that's been universal for the past 30 years (See "The Job Training Charade" by Gordon Lafer,) with a little dash of age discrimination just so you'll fit in with the hacker news crowd. (I know a lot of people who are in their 30's, 40's and 50's who've successfully learned new skills) Communications of the ACM has hand-wringing articles in every issue a…

> There's no educational institution that produces people with the skills it takes to develop today's web sites. That's quite a charge. CS graduates come out with at least a grasp on database design, object-oriented design, functional programming, state machines, concurrency, type safety, program evaluation, OS fundamentals, networks, and the software development lifecycle. In addition, the curriculum leaves room for…

Is the SDLC that was taught in the universities really that important?

I've seen companies dying because there's lack of standard on how to developer software or using a typical university SDLC. How many product-based companies died because their technical debt interest is bigger than they can pay?

I've seen hot-shot smart-ass students who just don't like to test their own code. Let's face it, most universities tend to put testing as a footnote in CS studies.

I think this is also part of the problem. CS seems too "science-y". Honestly, CS students should go to pursue research-based work.

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