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Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

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Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

==I really enjoyed college, especially my liberal arts classes.== I think this highlights the true question. Do colleges exist to promote education and intellectual curiosity or to train workers? According to PEW, Americans believe colleges are for work training: "Americans are split on the main purpose of college, with 47% saying it is to teach work-related skills and 39% saying it is to help a student grow personal…

It'd be hard to justify the costs - both actual college costs and opportunity costs if it was purely for intellectual curiosity.

What if increased intellectual curiosity has a high enough ROI over someone's lifetime to cover the costs? What if the higher education allows them to enjoy life more and thus increase quality of life over the long-run?

I'm not saying either of these are the case, but it is worth exploring before we outright dismiss.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#82

My tinfoil hat theory is that this is being caused by the increasing concentration of wealth. Which is being enabled by increasing levels of automation and efficiency.

US worker productivity growth has been extremely limited over the last 15 years. Simply put the economy isn’t that efficient relative to population growth. What has happened is massive growth in drug prices, housing, and other non-productive areas of the economy. Rent seeking is rampant.

I have a hypothesis that productivity growth is tied to the capital / income ratio. That is: if the percentage of income that goes to capital vs labor increases, the productivity of the laborers rises at a slower rate. But I obviously can't substantiate that.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#83

Have there been studies of correlations between crime rates and the affordability of cities?

Found these briefly:

"Recent years have witnessed widespread public concern and increased policy attention to issues of housing affordability. In 2015 a full one-half of U.S. households were paying more than 30 percent of their income in rent. We identify multiple channels by which individual or family outcomes are inferior when rents increase faster than income. Research further suggests that rising rent burdens may reduce the economic potential of metropolitan areas. This paper reviews the evidence on why affordability matters." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016604621...

"We examine whether there is a significant effect of foreclosure on robbery and burglary across neighborhoods, and whether this varies systematically across cities. Specifically, we consider whether several city‐level attributes—overall foreclosure rates, levels of socioeconomic disadvantage and prior vacancy rates, the degree of recent new housing construction, housing affordability, and the quantity and quality of policing—moderate the relationship between neighborhood levels of foreclosure and crime." https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6237....

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#84
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US worker productivity growth has been extremely limited over the last 15 years. Simply put the economy isn’t that efficient relative to population growth. What has happened is massive growth in drug prices, housing, and other non-productive areas of the economy. Rent seeking is rampant.

Agreed, and the increased prices are for existing drugs. We are not seeing an increase in cost due to innovation. Price increases are caused by companies charging more year after year for the same pill.

These companies are granted monopoly status on a compact with the Citizens and US government.

If they break this compact, I see no reason to protect their patent. Eminent domain is a thing. Lets use it.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#85
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lots of people. In the Salesforce consulting world the Certified Technical Architect (CTA) cert means you walk in the door at any of the big consulting firms at managing director or equivalent rank and that comes out to around $200k/year. The cert isn't that easy to get, it requires a dozen or so prerequisite certs and then an exam plus a board review but you could probably do it in a year and a half. Also, i think o…

Granted, I know little to nothing about the IT industry, but is a "managing director" someone who has a high school diploma plus some technical skills?

The best I’ve ever had never went to college. I was extremely productive under this person because there was a high level of trust and ownership. This was at a company whose CEO also didn’t finish his undergrad at Yale. Prior to this company I worked as an engineer at Google and had some launch/promo obsessed managers who lacked basic management skills.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#87
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

College doesn't necessarily make people more productive. Rather it acts as a filter to knock unproductive people out of the hiring pool. And in economics terminology, completing a degree acts as a signal for candidates to demonstrate intelligence and persistence to employers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signalling_(economics)

I don’t buy this. Are saying if you get college a degree in Chemical Engineering you wouldn’t be far more productive as a Chemical Engineer than if you only went to high school? Or in say, physics or chemistry or botany?

No the commenter is saying that having completed a degree in chemical engineering serves as a signal to your productivity. It does not in fact determine how productive you actually are.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#88
post #14
post #10

" middle-class life to those without a college degree " Anytime you start delving into what has changed for a subset of people, over decades, the most important piece of the puzzle is decided ding who qualifies for the subset. I mean concepts like "middle class" or "without a college degree." A lot more people get degrees, in 2018. Does the graduates/nongraduates segment still represent a comparable group of people?…

> It turned out, college was partly a proxy for class. What college grad earnings in the 60s was actually saying is that upper-middle class kids grow into upper-middle class adults. I think this is a critical observation that lots of people--including some economists--have missed.

A college degree may not be a panacea for class mobility, but lets not forget that class mobility without a degree is pretty much not possible in the slightest.

Per a Pew study Brookings cites (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2014/02...):

> children born in the lowest income quintile who do not earn a four-year degree are four times as likely to wind up in the bottom (47%) as those who earn a four-year degree (10%).

So while upper middle class people are still the ones with the best chance at getting admitted, paying for, and finishing college degrees, lower class people who persist and do the same really are far more likely to join the middle or upper middle class from doing the same. Though it's far from guaranteed, especially since the relative value of a degree does depend on which degree, and sometimes school prestige as well, which is definitely harder for the lower class to prioritize (costs, scholarship availability, and nearness to family if they need to provide income support or other support to them tend to matter more in my experience).

The observation you mention is accurate, but I just wanted to provide additional context to readers who may not realize the life changing effect a degree can still have for poor people. This is as someone who experienced a comfortable middle class upbringing only because of the combination of a state school in the rural south that gave merit scholarships in the 80s to locals, and my mom's efforts to graduate with a degree that would be worth money.

That said, the idea of pursuing liberal arts in college is still incredibly foreign to me. Being able to support oneself after getting that sort of degree is definitely something I can see as mostly a proxy for upper middle class upbringing, and likely feeds into the rising trends see today where the payoff for the lower class is not hugely significant or comparable to well connected peers, even upon degree completion.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#89
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we do see the same problem in several European cities. For instance there's been some debate about how nurses can't really afford to live in Oslo anymore due to the discrepancy between income and rent.

I've long thought the same about London. How does a teacher, nurse, or policeman rent anywhere within a 60 minute commute? Probably many delay having a family and are able to share a house, but eventually that's going to get old for a lot of people.

It’s possible to rent as a single person or couple within a 1 hour commute, buying or bringing up a family is a very different proposition.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make very good points above. I really enjoyed college, especially my liberal arts classes. That being said, with AWS Certs going for between $75-$300 how long do colleges think they can survive? If you were a 22 yr old who studied from zero-level computing knowledge for 12 months and got the AWS Solutions Architect Pro cert (somewhat possible assuming 2 hours / day) I can already guarantee you’d receive a written…

==I really enjoyed college, especially my liberal arts classes.== I think this highlights the true question. Do colleges exist to promote education and intellectual curiosity or to train workers? According to PEW, Americans believe colleges are for work training: "Americans are split on the main purpose of college, with 47% saying it is to teach work-related skills and 39% saying it is to help a student grow personal…

The higher cost, the more college has to directly justify itself in terms of better prospective earnings.
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