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Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

arstechnica.com

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Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#81
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why buy a MacBook Pro for $2k+ when you can get by with a ChromeBook for $150?

I tend to spend 8+ hours/day in front of my computer. I spend 30 minutes to an hour in my car each day, and I would prefer zero. That is why.

And some people spend 8+ hours/day driving and 30 minutes to an hour in front of their computer each day, and would prefer zero.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#82
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. You can buy a good, reliable, well maintained car for $3,000. Mileage is less important than maintenance history. The Focus is a particularly good choice IMO. They are reliable, pleasant to drive, and Ford made gazillions of them so you can get them repaired anywhere and parts are cheap. You can also buy a basket case for $3,000, so you do need to have a bit of an idea of what to look for (or what to avoi…

Please link to this good, reliable, well-maintained car for $3k or under, because (without a family/buddy deal) it does not exist.

FWIW, I bought a 2004 Corolla with 140k miles off Craigslist in a HCOL city for $3,200 back in June. No issues so far.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#83
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. You can buy a good, reliable, well maintained car for $3,000. Mileage is less important than maintenance history. The Focus is a particularly good choice IMO. They are reliable, pleasant to drive, and Ford made gazillions of them so you can get them repaired anywhere and parts are cheap. You can also buy a basket case for $3,000, so you do need to have a bit of an idea of what to look for (or what to avoi…

Please link to this good, reliable, well-maintained car for $3k or under, because (without a family/buddy deal) it does not exist.

As bfuller already said, they do exist. I got my 2005 Honda Accord (Manual) on craigslist (2 days of research) for $2900.

It has lasted me 5.5 years now with no maintenance except oil changes.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#84

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

If nobody buys $35,000 cars, where does the supply of reliable 10-year-old $5000 cars come from?

If nobody buys $35,000 cars, then people are buying $25,000 cars and you have instead a steady supply of reliable 10-year-old $3500 cars.

If the aggregate demand goes down for all the cars, prices should also go down across the spectrum (to varying degrees, but still)

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#85

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

"Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high." If someone makes $250,000+ a year, it's not unreasonable. "My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's less than $100 a month in ammortized costs." That's completely unrealistic. You have some sort of competitive advantag…

I'm in a fairly expensive metro area and 10-year-old Priuses are about $3500. Not hard to find, and if a good mechanic does a pre purchase inspection and doesn't find anything major wrong - they are extremely reliable cars even now. Plan to spend another $500 on tires, as with any used car. The only thing most shops can't easily check is the HV battery cells; even if that goes out, again, there are shops that will replace the battery pack for under $1000.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#86
post #28

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

The short answers are: cars can be resold, so you're only paying for interest, taxes, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, insurance, and gas. After working with vehicle data for 6 years, I can guarantee that someone who buys a 1-year-old Prius is actually paying less per month than you are for your 2005 Focus. People who buy brand new cars are obviously paying a huge "drive it off the lot" tax in the form of deprecia…

To add to your "cars can be resold" comment: my friend drives Masaratis. He always has an eye out on used inventory and snags the under-priced ones. Continuously flips them for same price he bought it for after driving for awhile (6 mo to 2 years). Many sellers are the very rich folk constantly buying new cars or who's work have been re-assigned to a different country.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#87

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

It's a good question. Three things: 1) Your TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) for a cheap used car can't be $100/month. If you look at Kelley Blue Book or similar websites, they'll tell you that even super cheap cars like that 2005 Ford Focus will still cost you $300-400/month, all included. 2) I almost died in a car accident two years ago, and a result, I value car security way more than before, which means I wouldn't m…

> Your TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) for a cheap used car can't be $100/month. If you look at Kelley Blue Book or similar websites, they'll tell you that even super cheap cars like that 2005 Ford Focus will still cost you $300-400/month, all included.

My personal econobox, which I've had for a bit over five years, has so far run around 0.17 cents per km, or $155/month, with around 12,000 km/yr. Fixed costs (insurance, registration) add about $75/m.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#88
post #2

Short version: They never had a cash problem. They invested the money they had into developing a car. Turned it into a success. Then invested even more into the next car. Turned it into an even greater success. And so on. I wonder how profitable this type of 'short opinion piece' journalism is. How much does a journalist get paid to write something like this? Running some content websites myself which make like $0.00…

> They never had a cash problem

They absolutely did. Tesla was a bet on production. They bet the company over the past few months.

They weren’t an Amazon “if we dial it back a bit we can be profitable” case. They were a “if we don’t make enough cars we may not pay our debts” case. They made enough cars. That doesn’t mean the concerns ex ante were unmerited.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#89

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

Really not sure (I've always driven 'bangers' that are at least 11 years old) - but shocks me to see friends buying new cars.

That said a number seem to be:

* Company cars * Bought as part of 'own company' * Leased * Hired * Hire/purchase

Then a lower number: * Bought with autofinance * Bought with a bank loan * Bought on a CC

Very few (if any) are bought in cash. I remember my father (who has never been a rich man) buying his car in cash, (£10,000 in 1996) with the plan that this would last him. It did for 13 years.

I was shocked when my brother bought a new van recently - but at less than £200 a month, it worked out less than buying a banger and having to fix it - he needed a van for his job, so can't afford to have a day or days without a working vehicle. I think that is what it comes down to for most people who do buy new. 'Perception' of vehicle less likely to breakdown.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#90

This seems like a good breakdown - but it's also that Tesla (like SpaceX) runs really really close to the edge every time they do a product launch. How many people doubted SpaceX until the Falcon 9 flew? How many until the Falcon 9 landed on land? How many until Falcon 9 Heavy launched? How many are still doubting until Falcon 9 completes it's first manned mission? How many doubted Tesla until the Roadster shipped? T…

I'd love to see Tesla succeed, but cynical part of me thinks that old stogy BigAuto is simply watching them and taking notes. Waiting for Tesla to take all the arrows and blaze the trail, and then they'll swoop in and copy once Tesla's done all the hard work for them. They're not creative enough to do a Model 3, but once the formula looks sound, they can slap together a half-assed version and flood the market with it.
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