Tesla has a product that people want, and, importantly appeals to the new generation of prospective car owners in a way the other auto manufactures can't come close to even hoping. Youth haven't really been interested in cars in the same way and with the same level of excitement they once were for awhile now until Tesla came along. To put simply, they will eventually figure out their manufacturing and economies of sc…
I used to think HN comments were smart, until you read a thread about Automotive.
Then you realize that this board has no Auto experience, upvotes/downvotes based on their cult hero.
Since HN rules say we cant hypothesize about Tesla Astroturfing these threads, I'll just say that the information on HN regarding automotive is... questionable.
> But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity. This is ignorant and downplays the companies that have existed for decades. Tesla isnt profitable, the rest of the auto companies are profitable. These auto companies have already developed electric vehicles(see Bolt and Leaf) but demand doesnt cause them to produce Tesla…
This. Ford makes 1.6 million cars (worldwide) per quarter. Tesla, while impressive, cannot keep up when someone else enters their market segment. If tomorrow Ford/Chevy/Toyota announces a model 3 like car for 2020 release with something close to the 3's specs, Tesla is dead unless they can pull a rabbit out of their hat. Tesla can do what- 350k to 400k cars a year based on current numbers? The big players can do that…
This is almost sounds eerily like "Blackberry will release a phone that will kill Apple". If it were that easy to just crank out an EV, all manufacturers had a 2 year window to release one and capture the Model 3 backlog. But nobody has released a compelling product. As it is not about just manufacturing a product. It is about manufacturing an EV that is competitive with Tesla's software prowess, monthly over the air updates, massive super charger network, battery capabilities, cooling tech, a no dealership model, and brand signalling. Beyond that, big cos just don't venture into a new market. A electric BMW 3 will actually cannibalize their own 3 series first. Can they actually sell a higher margin electric 3 series ? Otherwise investors will punish BMW. Will their dealership network accept selling a lower margin product ? A product that requires fewer service visit ? There are a TON of considerations on why Big Cos are caught flat footed by disrupters. Look at SAP and how it missed the Cloud movement as Salesforce ate their cake. Google and Yahoo, Walmart and Amazon, and many more
- accelerating China factory due to tariffs of about 40% into China, they don't indicate what accelerating actually means Numbers: - Q3 production 53,239, - Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457 - North American deliveries of 55,840 rank the Model 3 among the 10 best-selling sedans in the region--and the only one that's electric - pretty good news in the face of what other car companies are doing - GM sales are expected to fa…
Yeah, there's a clear shift coming in the automotive industry. The auto makers who don't have plans for electrification right now are in big trouble. Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group. The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other…
I have no doubt that Porsche can make an excellent car, I think the main question is will they live within the box of limitations that old-line automakers seem to tie themselves into when designing electric vehicles. The main area being self constraining thinking that shows up via limitations in battery costs and logistics. That's not car engineering that limits them, its supply chain inflexibility to really expand or secure a supply to the extent that Tesla has done for itself. As a result, makers like BMW builds these odd little toasters instead of anything like a Tesla or a regular car.
Don't forget the Supercharger network; seems like that's another big part of Tesla's first-mover advantage that any serious competitor will need to address at some point if they want to "catch up".
Couldn't the mainstream auto manufactures install chargers at each of their dealers? It seems that for any major car brand, there are more dealerships than there are Tesla chargers.
Would you enjoy spending several hours of your vacation hanging around auto dealers' showrooms?
- accelerating China factory due to tariffs of about 40% into China, they don't indicate what accelerating actually means Numbers: - Q3 production 53,239, - Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457 - North American deliveries of 55,840 rank the Model 3 among the 10 best-selling sedans in the region--and the only one that's electric - pretty good news in the face of what other car companies are doing - GM sales are expected to fa…
Yeah, there's a clear shift coming in the automotive industry. The auto makers who don't have plans for electrification right now are in big trouble. Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group. The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other…
I will never buy from the VW group again. It's almost like people have forgotten about the whole TDI scandal. They literally lied to the world about dirty diesel. Not to mention the new class action lawsuit for both VW and Audi TSI models where they put bad engine parts into new cars.
After the TDI emissions scandal I would never support this corrupt company. Porsche, VW, or Audi - they're all corrupt and in my opinion create engines that systematically fail to keep you coming in. Look at the reimbursement schedule on the class action lawsuit - if your car's engine fails after 100,000 miles they are not paying for anything, which has personally affected me.
> Reservations stand at about 400,000 I believe. Based on? There's been no official release. If they stood at 400k, Musk would be shouting it from the rooftops. Many reservations were expecting a $35k car (with a substantial rebate). Even Musk himself said the demand for $50k+ sedans is ~100k annually.
> Reservations stand at about 400,000 I believe. Based on? There's been no official release. If they stood at 400k, Musk would be shouting it from the rooftops. Many reservations were expecting a $35k car (with a substantial rebate). Even Musk himself said the demand for $50k+ sedans is ~100k annually.
They report the amount of deposits quarterly, ya goober:
> Customer deposits decreased slightly compared to Q1 to $942 million. This does not reflect the incremental deposits we received once we opened the Model 3 configurator for orders in early Q3 2018. Deposits impact the P&L only once the vehicle gets delivered to a customer.[1]
$.94 billion in deposits, where deposits are $1000 for a model 3, $20,000 for a Semi, and $250,000 for a roadster. It's also up by $90 million from two quarters before. No matter how you slice it they have a crazy number of deposits. Musk also does bring it up fairly often, certainly every earnings call that I remember.
At 83,500 vehicles in a quarter, that does come out to 1-2 years.
That's a totally different statement though. Model 3s are also only 53,000 of that, although that's still just under 2 years. But really, the number of deposits doesn't have much of anything to do with the actual demand. The number of cancellations and new deposits also makes it really hard to estimate what it actually is.
The bottom line though is that any reasonable observer will expect the Model 3 to keep a sustained demand at its price point. People really do like them despite what critics say.
And just for completeness, Porsche "only" sold 55,000 cars in 2017. Tesla shipped 30%+ more automobiles in one quarter, yet there is debate about whether Tesla is a viable company and no-one is predicting the imminent demise of that tiny car company, Porsche. Bias + old thinking dies hard, it seems.
Did you just compare a subsidiary of Volkswagen to some singular Silicon Valley startup in terms of production capability, available resources, expertise and infrastructure? Also, define Porsche: "Porsche AG is headquartered in Stuttgart, and is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobil Holding SE." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche I'm a bit skeptical whether Tesla will surviv…
No matter what happens, anyone wanting to build serious EVs will at some point be licensing patents, especially the stuff they do which really is cutting edge around their battery packs.