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The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

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81–90 of 253 posts

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#81

you know that research test they do where the subject can have $5 now or $50 at the end if they don't take the $5 and a disappointing amount of times they go for the $5. The problem is everyone cheers on the politician that says you can have the $5 AND the $50.

Preferring a promise of $50 later depends on trust. Economists are much too emotional to understand that kind of thing.

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#82
post #33

Overal taxation in the U.S. is low compared to other OECD countries [1]. We, as a nation, decided that low taxes was the goal. As a result infrastructure is poor, toll roads are increasing, privatization of prisons, intelligence gathering, war, etc. are rising too. Yet Americans falsely believe they are overtaxed. The situation is easy to fix in economic terms but not in political terms. The road to an Ayn Randian pa…

Public sector pensions are deficits and eventual bankruptcy are the result of greed and politics and not taxation.

chicago is a poster child for the corruption that has created a system which will bankrupt in three years [1]. It was never sustainable but its continued expansion kept politicians in office. just look at the numbers in the story I linked, what reasonable group of people would have ever signed off on this? Chicago isn't alone. Its rampant. six figure retirements? no public service job warrants that.

and it isn't just the public sector employees, there are story after story of city bureaucrats making a quarter million or more and that is just up front money. simply put, they control the piggy bank and they are willing to loot it for gains today because they don't plan to be in office when the bill comes due

[1] https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/511130434-projection-chi...

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#83
post #66

This is a good example of the type of debate that well-meaning, thoughtful people decide just steer clear of due to the (lack of) perspectives of the majority of those currently taking part in the conversation. The United States spends the better part of a trillion dollars per year on its military. A relatively small fraction of that would solve any issues their social welfare programs currently have. It's a matter o…

> A relatively small fraction of that

And what would you do with the large number of unemployed people that would result?

You can't just change one thing and ignore any consequences.

And don't forget that the broken window fallacy only applies to economies where everyone is working full time. If they are not then it does not apply, and your analysis needs to be more thorough.

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#84
post #66

This is a good example of the type of debate that well-meaning, thoughtful people decide just steer clear of due to the (lack of) perspectives of the majority of those currently taking part in the conversation. The United States spends the better part of a trillion dollars per year on its military. A relatively small fraction of that would solve any issues their social welfare programs currently have. It's a matter o…

...Given that the "Pension Hole" the article is describing is a total shortfall of five trillion dollars, I don't think you could easily solve it with a "relatively small fraction" of 1 trillion dollars.

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#85
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were predictions made based on historical market returns? Or were the predictions optimistic even when they were made? My understanding (which is from a distance, and could easily be wrong) was that even when made, the estimated returns were optimistic - not necessarily wildly optimistic, but toward the top end of the historic range of returns. This reduced the burden of funding the pensions at the time they were def…

Until the 2008 recession, the vast majority of Illinois public pension funds assumed returns in excess of 8%: https://www.civicfed.org/iifs/blog/comparing-investment-retu... . That was more than the market returned in 1960-1980, but less than the market returned from 1980-2005. But, those projections don't include unplanned pension benefit increases for existing retirees, which happens periodically.

Chicago pensions to bankrupt by 2021, the numbers in the article are amazing for payouts https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/511130434-projection-chi...

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#86
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or from the perspective of someone who has to run for election: Candidate A says, "We need to cut benefits now to make sure the pension has enough money in the future." Candidate B says, "No we don't." Everyone votes for Candidate B. It's not like we accidentally elected people who don't value the long term. It's that voters don't value the long term when there's real short term money at stake.

Pensioners, union members, and their families always vote for B. The people who care about the long term hardly form a solid block to elect the candidate A.

Just cutting benefits misses the point, how is austerity a long-term solution?

The US has a massive problem with the perception of "government usefulness", heck you've got whole political wings solely trying to appeal to "the only good government is no government" mentalities.

As a result, barely anybody wants to pay taxes for anything, in their extremely egotistical and narrow-sighted definition of "freedom".

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#87
post #54
post #31

How much money does one need to live in retirement? If they are doing daily exercise(1-2hr), cut out most processed foods and sugar , no alcohol , cook all their food from scratch using cheap staple ingredients , entertain themselves with books , community , local events and cut out expensive vacation plane trips (only an invention of the past century). An ‘uncomfortable’ lifestyle shift but doable for a human. [edit…

How much money does the low-taxed wealthy need that so many others need to live a paupers life style. Is there not productivity enough in our society to provide better?

What are you talking about? The wealthy are not low taxed, the US taxes the wealthy more than just about any other OECD country.

Source: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-do-us-taxe... Figure 2.

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#88
post #33

Overal taxation in the U.S. is low compared to other OECD countries [1]. We, as a nation, decided that low taxes was the goal. As a result infrastructure is poor, toll roads are increasing, privatization of prisons, intelligence gathering, war, etc. are rising too. Yet Americans falsely believe they are overtaxed. The situation is easy to fix in economic terms but not in political terms. The road to an Ayn Randian pa…

Taxes being lower or higher are not what determine size of pension hole. Greece and Italy have higher taxes and still have a pretty big pension hole. The problem is public sector employees are promised pensions higher than county/city can afford. Unlike a corporation which has to balance its budget, city officials go beyond means with their promises in order to get elected and leave the problem for the next set. This…

> The problem is public sector employees are promised pensions higher than county/city can afford.

Precisely. But in fact, it's worse:

The people doing the promising and those receiving the benefits are in fact the same.

Who makes the promises? Local and state government employees.

Who receives the benefits? Local and state government employees.

Who pays for them? Us ordinary taxpayers who can only dream of such sweet defined-benefit pension deals.

Yet some folks see this as reason we should pay even higher taxes, and sacrifice our own pensions, which are already lower and less secure than these privileged government pensioners.

Unbelievable.

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#89
post #57

you know that research test they do where the subject can have $5 now or $50 at the end if they don't take the $5 and a disappointing amount of times they go for the $5. The problem is everyone cheers on the politician that says you can have the $5 AND the $50.

Doesn't this show that the people who took $5 up front were right? The ones who waited for $50 at the end are getting screwed.

the ones in the test the took the $5 look like untrusting fools because we make assumptions about fair and reasonable outcomes with repercussions on those parties in an agreement that don't fulfill their obligations.

politicians should be held accountable like CEOs. They should be able to be sued. Screw over the company? your ass is going to get kicked. Say you didn't know? you shoulda listened to the people giving you the numbers. didn't have the numbers? shoulda hired people to give you the numbers.

there needs to be a lot more repercussions on those people making bad decisions.

Re: The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States Is the Size of Japan’s Economy

#90
post #68
post #31

How much money does one need to live in retirement? If they are doing daily exercise(1-2hr), cut out most processed foods and sugar , no alcohol , cook all their food from scratch using cheap staple ingredients , entertain themselves with books , community , local events and cut out expensive vacation plane trips (only an invention of the past century). An ‘uncomfortable’ lifestyle shift but doable for a human. [edit…

Totally doable... right up until you fall ill or start to have medical issues and you can't care for yourself.

The people being discussed here are retired and are eligible for Medicare.
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