Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#81

Post by danso » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:39 PM UTC

pavs wrote: post #29

danso wrote: post #6

Worth posting Bloomberg's Tesla Model 3 Tracker, which contains a model attempting to independently estimate production, as well as background info about Tesla's past projections: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

I think most people shouldn't take this tracker seriously as it was wildly off most of the time and was often manually adjusted.

The tracker on Apr. 2 (Google Cache) has an estimate of 12,245 units, which is based off of a confirmed production total of 2,686 at the end of Q4.

http://archive.is/WXoXw

Today's announcement says 9,766 M3s were produced in Q1: 9766 + 2686, i.e. 12452.

They don't seem that far off?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#82

Post by Robotbeat » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:39 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #71

Robotbeat wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe he was referring to the NUMMI factory pre-Tesla, which produced about 6000 cars and trucks per week at its peak. It does seem like Tesla will soon (3-12 months) eclipse that record.

Correct! And that NUMMI run rate Toyota achieved was (supposedly) only 60% of the facility's total manufacturing capacity. It appears to be entirely realistic for Tesla to meet their 500k/year vehicle production rate at NUMMI.

Indeed. They originally planned to make 500,000 Teslas (including the Model 3) per year by 2020, and they'll almost certainly meet that.

Aim for the Moon, and if you miss, you may still reach Mars.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#83

Post by TeeWEE » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:40 PM UTC

joezydeco wrote: post #28

I was next to Model X at a stoplight last night. They look nice from a distance, but when you sit up close you can see where every panel and piece of trim just doesn't line up quite right. Sitting in my cheap little Mazda3, I've never noticed any problem with simple fit-and-finish details like that. I truly hope the Model 3s catch up, but I really think those owners will be in for a world of headaches after delivery.

I also saw a model X, and the doors didnt line up correctly with the chassis. Maybe it was not closed properly? Maybe it was bad construction. I'm not sure.

Edit, added link: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/door-alignment-norma...

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#84

Post by komali2 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:41 PM UTC

ProAm wrote: post #79

thisisit wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

> then the stock price is going to drop like a rock Shouldn't investors know the truth about their investment? Give people a chance to keep their money if the are making a poor investment? (Im not saying Tesla is, but smoke and mirrors is a poor way to present your company to the public)

He didn't lie, and investors that care about the numbers we're talking about here are welcome to look at them.

So perhaps the lesson is savvy investors should ignore the pr and focus on the hard numbers?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#85

Post by nopriorarrests » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:42 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #53

danso wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the other makers "years behind" Tesla? The Model S is the best-selling EV but not by an order of magnitude. GM was pretty close last year in sales and I don't think it's a bad bet to bet that GM will beat Tesla in getting self-driving tech (GM Cruise is only second to Waymo in testing self-driving, at least in California). https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/30/the-5-best-selling... https://www.theverge.co…

Using one example to represent the industry is the issue in your premise. This list nicely proves my point: How many EVs is Volkswagen selling per year? How many EVs is Subaru selling per year? How many EVs is Fiat selling per year? How many EVs is Ferrari selling per year? How many EVs is Daimler selling per year? How many EVs is Ford selling per year? How many EVs is PSA selling per year? How many EVs is Hyundai Ki…

>Tesla is in fact still embarrassing the auto industry and >selling EVs by an order of magnitude beyond what nearly >all of the major auto companies are.

Um, no.

"November was another good month for GM’s Chevy Bolt EV US sales. The electric vehicle hit a new record with almost 3,000 units sold in one month – bringing the total to over 20,000 units to date". [0]

Of course total Tesla sales are higher than 20K units, but if we are talking about EV cars in mass segment, Tesla is being outsold at this moment.

[0] https://electrek.co/2017/12/01/chevy-bolt-ev-us-sales-record...

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#86

Post by bald » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:42 PM UTC

misja111 wrote: post #78

thisisit wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

No, investors are not that stupid. They might buy these marketing talks for a while but eventually they will see through. The recent drop in Tesla's share price is a testament of that. "You can fool some people all of the time, and you can fool all people some of the time, but you can't fool all people all of the time."

Price is a function of supply and demand. So this tactic is better than the blunt tactic even if it manages to fool only one shareholder.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#87

Post by jacquesm » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:43 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #53

danso wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the other makers "years behind" Tesla? The Model S is the best-selling EV but not by an order of magnitude. GM was pretty close last year in sales and I don't think it's a bad bet to bet that GM will beat Tesla in getting self-driving tech (GM Cruise is only second to Waymo in testing self-driving, at least in California). https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/30/the-5-best-selling... https://www.theverge.co…

Using one example to represent the industry is the issue in your premise. This list nicely proves my point: How many EVs is Volkswagen selling per year? How many EVs is Subaru selling per year? How many EVs is Fiat selling per year? How many EVs is Ferrari selling per year? How many EVs is Daimler selling per year? How many EVs is Ford selling per year? How many EVs is PSA selling per year? How many EVs is Hyundai Ki…

VW: 350 e-Golfs / week

Nissan has delivered 300K leafs (why did you leave them out?).

Chevvy sells about 20K volts / year.

Lots more data here: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The companies you list are selling millions of fossil-fuel vehicles because that's their business: selling cars. And as long as they can continue to do so profitably they will do so.

And whether or not Ferrari makes fossil fuel cars or not is immaterial, the numbers aren't there.

Fiat has an electric car but they are not turning a profit on it (it is priced very low, and they still can't sell them).

So does Renault, they too make electric cars, and have been doing so for quite a while.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#88

Post by ballenf » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:45 PM UTC

thisisit wrote: post #56

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

The message to investors is more about demonstrating that they haven't given up and are still enthusiastic about improving.

What investors flee from is demoralized companies where the leaders are burned out or have stopped trying to make gains.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#89

Post by pm90 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:46 PM UTC

InitialLastName wrote: post #74

kbody wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is a genius, but still not everything that a company does is done by the CEO.

> Musk is a genius, Apparently, Musk is a good salesman, especially of himself.

Come on, he can be a salesman and a genius. At least he is a very extreme determined and hard working person, if not an actual "genius" (whose brains are wired differently). People don't generally make a mid career change into rocket science and then have the most successful private rocket launch company.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#90

Post by pm90 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:49 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #54

planetjones wrote: post #13

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

Very astute comment. And lets remember that Musk himself is a big fan of "first principles". By the first principles (fundamentals) of business and finance, it doesn't look very good. But I too sincerely hope that Tesla does succeed.