Amazon Takes Fresh Stab at $16B Housekeeping Industry • Hacker News Board

Re: Amazon Takes Fresh Stab at $16B Housekeeping Industry

#81

Post by TheCoelacanth » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 1:50 PM UTC

kakarot wrote: post #80

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Again, until a better unified theory of everything emerges, we currently have no synthesis between quantum and classical physics and thus measured quantum phenomena are currently irrelevant to physics measured in the classical scale. That means that we don't know how quantum physics and classical physics interact. It doesn't mean that we know they don't interact. Clearly they do in some way or else it would be impo…

Did you read my links? I never made a claim that classical physics can predict quantum mechanics. In fact it's the opposite, I said the theories have not been synthesized. We are no longer arguing about your original claim of non-determinism in the classical scale, and you don't seem to have a comprehensive enough understanding of the concepts involved here and you're not interested in changing your mind, so I'm done…

The subject was whether Facebook's stock price going down could be predicted based solely on classical physics. I am arguing that it cannot.

I am arguing that classical physics can not in general predict human behavior. Publishing a paper on quantum mechanics is a human behavior. Classical physics cannot predict whether someone will publish a paper on quantum physics, so clearly it cannot predict all human behavior.

This in itself is not enough to prove that classical physics cannot predict Facebook's stock price, but since Facebook's stock price is dependent on a vast number of human behaviors, it should cast serious doubt on the idea that the stock price could be predicted using classical physics.

Is there some part of this that you disagree with?

Re: Amazon Takes Fresh Stab at $16B Housekeeping Industry

#82

Post by kakarot » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 3:36 PM UTC

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #81

kakarot wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read my links? I never made a claim that classical physics can predict quantum mechanics. In fact it's the opposite, I said the theories have not been synthesized. We are no longer arguing about your original claim of non-determinism in the classical scale, and you don't seem to have a comprehensive enough understanding of the concepts involved here and you're not interested in changing your mind, so I'm done…

The subject was whether Facebook's stock price going down could be predicted based solely on classical physics. I am arguing that it cannot. I am arguing that classical physics can not in general predict human behavior. Publishing a paper on quantum mechanics is a human behavior. Classical physics cannot predict whether someone will publish a paper on quantum physics, so clearly it cannot predict all human behavior.…

I am arguing that classical physics can not in general predict human behavior.

That has nothing to do with determinism, and everything to do with incomplete information.

Your postulate was such:

It seems readily apparent that the future is not predictable solely using classical physics

That means the future is not deterministic, but our current standard model says otherwise on scales that matter for this kind of situation.

The inability to predict human behavior and other external events is entirely because of lack of complete knowledge about the system.

That doesn't mean it's not deterministic, nor unpredictable given the right knowledge.

You fundamentally misunderstand these concepts you are arguing, and again I recommend further reading before you continue to engage in such debates.

Re: Amazon Takes Fresh Stab at $16B Housekeeping Industry

#83

Post by TheCoelacanth » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 4:26 PM UTC

kakarot wrote: post #82

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subject was whether Facebook's stock price going down could be predicted based solely on classical physics. I am arguing that it cannot. I am arguing that classical physics can not in general predict human behavior. Publishing a paper on quantum mechanics is a human behavior. Classical physics cannot predict whether someone will publish a paper on quantum physics, so clearly it cannot predict all human behavior.…

I am arguing that classical physics can not in general predict human behavior. That has nothing to do with determinism, and everything to do with incomplete information. Your postulate was such: It seems readily apparent that the future is not predictable solely using classical physics That means the future is not deterministic, but our current standard model says otherwise on scales that matter for this kind of situ…

> The inability to predict human behavior and other external events is entirely because of lack of complete knowledge about the system.

That is clearly not the case. You cannot predict the contents of someone's research paper about quantum physics no matter how much foreknowledge you have using only classical physics. That is a macro scale event that cannot be modeled using only classical physics. That is proof that classical physics can not model macro scale events with perfect accuracy.

Re: Amazon Takes Fresh Stab at $16B Housekeeping Industry

#84

Post by kakarot » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 4:45 PM UTC

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #83

kakarot wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am arguing that classical physics can not in general predict human behavior. That has nothing to do with determinism, and everything to do with incomplete information. Your postulate was such: It seems readily apparent that the future is not predictable solely using classical physics That means the future is not deterministic, but our current standard model says otherwise on scales that matter for this kind of situ…

> The inability to predict human behavior and other external events is entirely because of lack of complete knowledge about the system. That is clearly not the case. You cannot predict the contents of someone's research paper about quantum physics no matter how much foreknowledge you have using only classical physics. That is a macro scale event that cannot be modeled using only classical physics. That is proof that…

You're using circular logic. Classical physics can't predict the future because classical physics can't predict the future. Try again.

Re: Amazon Takes Fresh Stab at $16B Housekeeping Industry

#85

Post by TheCoelacanth » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 5:00 PM UTC

kakarot wrote: post #84

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The inability to predict human behavior and other external events is entirely because of lack of complete knowledge about the system. That is clearly not the case. You cannot predict the contents of someone's research paper about quantum physics no matter how much foreknowledge you have using only classical physics. That is a macro scale event that cannot be modeled using only classical physics. That is proof that…

You're using circular logic. Classical physics can't predict the future because classical physics can't predict the future. Try again.

It is not circular logic.

My premises are:

1. Classical physics cannot predict the results of at least one physics experiment. This should be uncontroversial because otherwise the field of quantum mechanics wouldn't exist.

2. The results of said experiment can be observed at a macro scale. This should also be uncontroversial because the publication of experimental results is observable at the macro scale.

It follows directly from those two premises that there is at least one macro scale phenomenon that classical physics can not predict.