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The Role of Luck in Life Success

blogs.scientificamerican.com

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Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#81

Post by Antimachides »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #71
oldcynic wrote: post #28

Of course after someone has achieved success they put it down entirely to innate worth, effort, skill and so forth. Likewise plenty who have deserved success have been wiped out by unlucky timing of the dot com bust, credit crunch, fraud. Yes persistence pays, but however unpopular it might be around here, we are nearly all one or two rolls from disaster - be that business failure, major illness, or whatever, that ca…

I'm not that convinced about the hard work part, it strikes me it's a hangover from the protestant work ethic. If you can't achieve something in 40 hours a week why would adding another 20 make much difference. If anything it might make it more difficult. I think I'd phrase it as you need work and luck.

You can work softly, not getting as much done in the same amount of time of working hard.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#82

Post by mtgex »

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #77
mtgex wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it is a race and gender issue. I'm not trying to divide people, just stating facts. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're born into a specific race, thus your chances of being born wealthy are directly correlated with your chances of being white. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're male. Among the many reasons are increased career opportunities in general, less chance of a stalled career because of chil…

Having a black doctor for a parent probably provides more benefit than having a white dockworker for a parent. That's the point of the comment above. Similarly for being the daughter of rich couple or the son of a poor couple.

Yes of course, but I don't believe that's what the commenter was talking about.

The comment said it is not a race or gender issue, which I disagree with.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#83

Post by BatFastard »

noir_lord wrote: post #26
amoorthy wrote: post #20

Just read this article. Very cool how the researchers simulated the role luck plays in society with some neat models. The conclusions they reach are fascinating and counter-intuitive e.g. >"[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give…

Perhaps to bastardise an old quote. "When luck turns up it better find you with a bag of cash"

Love that.

I am looking at a great idea that I have been working on, but I am afraid to release it because I know it will be cloned in a matter of months since I can not afford worldwide patent protection.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#84

Post by dasil003 »

vecinu wrote: post #73
nouveaux wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"One point of contention I have with this article is that it mentions that many CEOs were born during certain months and have names starting with certain letters. The mere mention of the phrase I am about to use always draws the ire of the HN crowd, but I see a big correlation/causation issue with that specific data point." On the point of birth month, there is a cause. Kids born before the cutoff year for kindergart…

This is exactly what Malcom Gladwell talks about in Outliers: The Story of Success. He starts off by mentioning how hockey players have this age advantage since they are more physically mature than people born in other months and cut off by our artificially created system.

Makes sense for hockey players given the investment they need in development from a young age and how that investment is directly based on physical evaluation. For CEOs that pattern doesn't exist save perhaps in the mind of status-obsessed parents.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#85

Post by askafriend »

mtgex wrote: post #52
antisthenes wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop trying to make it a race and gender issue. It helps no one but the rentier class to further divide the people they are extracting profit from. What wealth 'class' you are born into has by far the biggest effect on your chance of success.

But it is a race and gender issue. I'm not trying to divide people, just stating facts. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're born into a specific race, thus your chances of being born wealthy are directly correlated with your chances of being white. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're male. Among the many reasons are increased career opportunities in general, less chance of a stalled career because of chil…

Stop doing this. It is a factor - no one denies that, but it is only one of many factors.

You're trying to elevate one factor above others and derailing the higher conversation people are trying to have here. It's just not productive.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#86

Post by mindcrime »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #29

These kind of articles and discussions almost invariably lead to defeatists and cynical attitudes. It's akin to saying "Unless you're born with good genes, you'll never be an Olympic athlete, so don't bother training and exercising". You may not ever be wealthy by trying and working hard because of the role luck plays. But there's value in working hard at it that everyone should know, just like there's value in physi…

It's interesting... there's an anecdote floating around out there somewhere about a famous wrestling coach (quite likely Dan Gable[1]) talking to a group of young wrestlers and telling them something approximately like:

"Most of you have the genetics to be an Olympic wrestler. But most of you don't have the work ethic".

Of course that's just an amusing anecdote and there's no reason to think that Dan Gable is an expert on genetics. But it's something to think about.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gable

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#87

Post by polskibus »

dang wrote: post #11

The study was discussed yesterday at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16496898 , but I guess we'll not treat the current article as a dupe, since it's a bit better.

why was the title editorialized? I think it's quite important that the results are in the title.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#88

Post by logfromblammo »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #65
downandout wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant a net worth of at least $1MM.

Yet there are plenty of people that work very hard without reaching that goal.

I think that the point was that everyone can make conscious choices that will lead to millionaire status. Avoidable mistakes can derail that, but cautious living can eliminate the luck factor.

Anyone born in the US, regardless of social status or ability, can become educated as an electrician, gain work experience up to master status, then incorporate as a subcontractor business to employ both less-experienced and less-ambitious electricians. Between the value of the business and index fund investments, and judicious use of insurance, that person will be a millionaire (by net worth) by the time they reach age 65.

If you choose to work at McDonald's when you graduate high school instead of the journeyman program of IBEW Local X, or even choose a less valuable skill in the building trades, the path is more difficult, more competitive, and less forgiving, but is still theoretically possible. If you go to college and get an engineering degree, the path is easier, but requires more up-front investment. If you go to college and get a degree in art history, that might be one of those avoidable mistakes that I mentioned earlier.

One of the decisions that must be made is "how many children will I support?" If you want to be a millionaire, the correct answer is zero. If you abandon completely the idea of raising children, you can certainly be a millionaire by the time you retire. The process will usually include establishing yourself as a small-business owner with near-guaranteed local demand. Most professions simply do not earn enough to provide sufficient margins for savings and investment unless you also employ the labor of someone besides yourself.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#89

Post by mistermann »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #71
oldcynic wrote: post #28

Of course after someone has achieved success they put it down entirely to innate worth, effort, skill and so forth. Likewise plenty who have deserved success have been wiped out by unlucky timing of the dot com bust, credit crunch, fraud. Yes persistence pays, but however unpopular it might be around here, we are nearly all one or two rolls from disaster - be that business failure, major illness, or whatever, that ca…

I'm not that convinced about the hard work part, it strikes me it's a hangover from the protestant work ethic. If you can't achieve something in 40 hours a week why would adding another 20 make much difference. If anything it might make it more difficult. I think I'd phrase it as you need work and luck.

What's special about the second 20 hours that they make no difference? Does the 39th hour make a difference? The 41st?

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#90

Post by mtgex »

askafriend wrote: post #85
mtgex wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it is a race and gender issue. I'm not trying to divide people, just stating facts. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're born into a specific race, thus your chances of being born wealthy are directly correlated with your chances of being white. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're male. Among the many reasons are increased career opportunities in general, less chance of a stalled career because of chil…

Stop doing this. It is a factor - no one denies that, but it is only one of many factors. You're trying to elevate one factor above others and derailing the higher conversation people are trying to have here. It's just not productive.

Many people deny this, so I think it is an important part of the higher conversation and inherently productive to discuss.

People tend to think luck is heavily about positioning yourself to succeed.

I think that's true, but I also believe that the most important factors to putting you in those lucky positions are not in your control.

Someone who is not already born into a lucky position has to get even more lucky to succeed.

You telling me to simply stop talking about something that I believe is an important point to make is very strange.

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