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Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

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Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#81

Post by oldcynic »

pharrington wrote: post #74
oldcynic wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My starting point with that question is to say humans are best suited to the global climate under which they evolved. Muck about with that at your peril. Try it out on the hot-spare planet first please. Attempting to adapt the environment will have unforeseen, probably serious, consequences. I for one hope we do not try, or have no choice but to try, geoengineering attempting to avoid catastrophe.

I completely agree with your first point. One of the key problems is that humans are the most adept species in billions of years at adapting the environment. Over time, the more likely a thing is to happen, the more that thing does happen. Adaptation is most likely to occur in the form of adding energy, and as Applejinx noted elsewhere in this thread, adding energy to a chaotic system increases its degree of deviatio…

Quite, and we've never tried geoengineering on a global scale. We've had enough problems from localised changes from agriculture or introduced species.

To your second point I've always preferred climate change as a term over global warming as some areas will end up cooler, others more changeable. Especially if one of the major ocean current systems slows or stops.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#82

Post by loverofthings »

mirimir wrote: post #57
loverofthings wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In similar ways, majority of people that believe in climate change do nothing (or barely anything) to fight it. No one is reducing their heating/cooling, no one is changing their diet, no one is measuring their heating patterns and trying to optimize it (by no one I mean barely anyone). People still want their 24/7 AC, their steaks, their huge cars, their big heat inefficient houses, their plane flights etc. No one d…

That's not true. Many people in "developed" countries reduce their energy use, and their use of energy-intensive products, in order to help reduce climate forcing. And they've done so for decades. However, it is true that too few people in "developed" countries do that. And it's also true that too many people in "less-developed" countries lust after energy-intensive lifestyles. So overall, its unlikely that overall c…

I'm not sure that many people do that.

A good comparison would be FOSS. Richard Stallman inconveniences himself to the point of absurdity, but I'm pretty sure barely anyone does anything close to it.

I changed my diet, I live in good housing, but when I put the numbers on paper, I'm not doing much at all, and could do much more.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#83

Post by jpindar »

52-6F-62 wrote: post #2

Anecdotal: Here in Toronto, it's been 16˚C this past week. In February. We've had about 2 or 3 real snowfalls that stuck around for a few days before melting. As somebody who loves ice skating outside, it's really frustrating. And I love the snow. Every year it seems like the winter gets a little milder...

Anecdotal: New Hampshire has experienced both record breaking high temperatures (> 70˚F) and record breaking low temperatures (It snowed the day after it was 75˚F.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#84

Post by nashashmi »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #68
briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

They're different by orders of magnitude. This spike is occurring in context of record low winter ice following a record low the previous winter following decades of a declining average. Yeah, the 25 number is a spike on the edge of the bell curve, but this bell curve is consistently shifting, and thus so are these spikes.

That's OP's point. It is only a spike, not an event that points to climate change. A climate change event example would be an average yearly temperature changing significantly.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#85

Post by jtzhou »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #76
microtonal wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are also simple things that one can do, that have an impact. For example, one could go on holiday to a local destination rather than flying half the world. Or you could cycle to work rather than traveling by car every day. (Sure, in the grand scheme of things, these will make small differences, but we have to cut our use of fossil fuel everywhere.)

Having one less child has far more of an impact than all of those lifestyle changes combined.

And providing education for and/or adopting other children so that they learn how to live responsibly.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#86

Post by mirimir »

jtzhou wrote: post #80
mirimir wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not true. Many people in "developed" countries reduce their energy use, and their use of energy-intensive products, in order to help reduce climate forcing. And they've done so for decades. However, it is true that too few people in "developed" countries do that. And it's also true that too many people in "less-developed" countries lust after energy-intensive lifestyles. So overall, its unlikely that overall c…

Or live wisely so you have the financial means and health to move you and your family elsewhere when need arrives, probably in our lifetimes for 80% of the world.

Right. That's arguably the prudent take on "party hearty". There's always the tension between "do fun stuff now when you can enjoy it most" and "save for later when you'll have more free time and less likely income".

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#87

Post by jtzhou »

mirimir wrote: post #86
jtzhou wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or live wisely so you have the financial means and health to move you and your family elsewhere when need arrives, probably in our lifetimes for 80% of the world.

Right. That's arguably the prudent take on "party hearty". There's always the tension between "do fun stuff now when you can enjoy it most" and "save for later when you'll have more free time and less likely income".

Ah understood. You were looking at the national level with countries like China and Russia "party[ing] hearty" by not significantly curbing C02 emissions. Those individuals who benefit directly from oil and coal (as they do in the US) will extract gains and use it to pad offshore bank accounts. Meanwhile the rest of us should take a prudent life and be prepared for shocks ahead (like land and cost of living soaring in climate-friendly cities). On a more personal level, ideally savers find ways to extract more late-life enjoyment out of their deferred-enjoyment lifestyles.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#89

Post by graeme »

briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

This comment shows up on every thread on this topic. Have a look at this data another user posted: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The last three years have been highly above average in the arctic. This isn't "arctic has one warm day!". It's "the entire year is abnormally warm in the arctic, like the past three!"

The appropriate comparison would be the US having a whole winter which is 10-20 degrees colder than normal.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#90

Post by toasterlovin »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #76
microtonal wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are also simple things that one can do, that have an impact. For example, one could go on holiday to a local destination rather than flying half the world. Or you could cycle to work rather than traveling by car every day. (Sure, in the grand scheme of things, these will make small differences, but we have to cut our use of fossil fuel everywhere.)

Having one less child has far more of an impact than all of those lifestyle changes combined.

Yeah, but then you are probably reducing the frequency of people who care about the environment in future populations, which may be a net loss.
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