It can all go to zero • Hacker News Board

Re: It can all go to zero

#81

Post by jules » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

cableshaft wrote: post #9

So many people love to parrot the 'It'll go down to zero!' line, especially if they don't have skin in the game, but there's pretty much no way. Specific cryptocurrencies, sure they could potentially go to zero. I'm watching one right now that's looking pretty darn close. But this entire industry? I don't think so. It's too late for that. Too many players, too much ease of access, too much of the potential has been d…

What would the price be if all the speculators pulled out, and only the people who genuinely use bitcoin for transactions remained? Why couldn't this happen to all the major cryptocurrencies at the same time? In fact, if it happens, isn't it likely to happen to all at the same time?

Re: It can all go to zero

#82

Post by JackFr » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #51

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end There are individuals in this thread claiming "there will always be buyers" and that the probability of Bitcoin becoming worthless is zero. The point of the article isn't that Bitcoin is doomed. It's that there is a substantial non-zero probability it ends up worthless. That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almos…

Ok can you talk more about your failure case then? What are the conditions like what exactly is the end result. There are 0 exchanges?

No, there are 0 buyers. Doesn't matter how many exchanges.

Re: It can all go to zero

#83

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #10

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At this point there's waayy too many actors and people who want Bitcoin to succeed This has no relation to whether something goes to zero (or practically zero). Political influence? Sure. But I don't think anyone expects D.C. to bail out Bitcoin. > A company has a "single point of failure" Companies trade after bankruptcy. There are stubs, practical and theoretical, for companies improperly wound up going back deca…

> But I don't think anyone expects D.C. to bail out Bitcoin. What does it mean for Bitcoin to be bailed out? How can Bitcoin "fail"? > But a penny price is as good as zero. Why would it go to zero?

[deleted]

Re: It can all go to zero

#84

Post by askafriend » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

I'll bite. This article isn't terribly useful and doesn't really put forth any new ideas. Most people are aware of how much risk is involved in the space.

Re: It can all go to zero

#85

Post by paulmd » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:02 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #16

api wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People made a version of that argument with mortgages and mortgage backed securities. Mortgages are spread across too many people, too many geographic areas, etc., and there's no way they'll all decline or default at once.

Well they were wrong to make that argument. If for no other reason they were all spread across too many people IN THE US, which kinda invalidates the claim.

Crashes and recessions can be global. In fact, economic interconnection makes that more and more likely. Globalism is not a zero-sum game, everyone can win at the same time, and in fact everyone can lose at the same time as well.

Re: It can all go to zero

#86

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:02 PM UTC

jhwang5 wrote: post #53

VMG wrote: post #32

If Bitcoin goes to 0, I will buy all of it and display the Trezor that stores it in a museum

For a more theatrical effect, print out all the private keys on reams of A4 paper

[deleted]

Re: It can all go to zero

#87

Post by flowctrl » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

Another new year, another market correction.

https://twitter.com/cryptozerp/status/953324474077769728

Good time to go shopping!

Re: It can all go to zero

#88

Post by diab0lic » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #16

api wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People made a version of that argument with mortgages and mortgage backed securities. Mortgages are spread across too many people, too many geographic areas, etc., and there's no way they'll all decline or default at once.

Well they were wrong to make that argument. If for no other reason they were all spread across too many people IN THE US, which kinda invalidates the claim.

But you're not wrong to make that argument, right?

The point api is making is that they were sure they were right.

Re: It can all go to zero

#89

Post by sschueller » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:04 PM UTC

blhack wrote: post #74

VMG wrote: post #32

If Bitcoin goes to 0, I will buy all of it and display the Trezor that stores it in a museum

I'll pay whatever this guy is paying +$1 for the entire chain.

I would pay +$2. Oops, I guess BTC being worth zero is very unlikely.

Re: It can all go to zero

#90

Post by acdha » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 7:04 PM UTC

cableshaft wrote: post #18

aphextron wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask yourself what exactly is behind that “~550B”. The answer is nothing but faith. You are comparing the market cap of cryptocurrencies to NASDAQ, a portfolio of the highest profit driving, real asset laden companies on earth. How is this even remotely realistic?

Everything is based on faith to a certain extent. None of us (that I'm aware of) have crystal balls that see the exact future. Even companies that have lots of assets behind them could potentially make catastrophic fuck ups that tank their stock (i.e. BP and their Deepwater Horizon spill) in an instant.

Look at the BP chart: yes, it dipped but having a real business meant that it didn’t go anywhere near zero and came back up.

Something based on faith can drop all the way to zero and stay there because e.g. everyone bailed to something else and there was no reason to come back.