Site just displays a blank page. No error or anything.
I think that's a better statement than whatever the app actually does.
Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
81–90 of 338 posts
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#82Is this a psychological experiment? All I get on Android Chrome is a white screen.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#83The volatility index, or VIX, has become a popular measurement to reference in the context of predicting the market over the past couple years.
The problem is that it does not seem to have any real predictive power and I have yet to see any shred of evidence that the VIX has been shown to have predictive power over the future value of the stock market.
It is calculated from past price variance and is used in calculating the theoretical price of options, but that is it.
Does anyone have any evidence the VIX has value?
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#84The metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this crash was caused by automated trading systems which could run wild in the absence of any prevention regulations such as circuit breakers 2000: the collapse of the dotcom bubble 2008: start of the financial crisis caused mainly by opaque credit…
"occurrences that nobody was aware of and that were only understood afterwards"
Umm, I'm no genius but I was managing my mother's money at the time of the 2008 crash. It was very obvious to me that there was going to be a crash, I pulled out of the market in late 2006 and didn't lose a dime in the crash.
I think the better statement is "The 2008 crash was obvious but many people were in denial".
Again, I'm not a financial wizard, I could just see the writing on the wall on that one, everyone was getting approved for houses they couldn't afford, you just knew that was not going to end well.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#85[deleted]
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#86The answer is of course: YES. The more important question is when, and the answer to that is "who knows". The market is a chaotic system, with severe non-linear responses. As such, it can remain stable much longer than people think, and crash much harder than anyone expects.
I was expecting the site to just have YES at the top in big letters with some explanation below. Things are certainly feeling bubbly lately.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#87Blank page for me. Don't know if it is there but a nice chart is size of the Fed B/S vs S&P 500, since 2005. Suggests a large part of the valuation of stock is generated by QE, which the Fed intends to start withdrawing this year...
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#88Site just displays a blank page. No error or anything. I think that's a better statement than whatever the app actually does.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#89How is the heat matrix diagram calculated? It seems to be wrong. Public Debt has a 3.7/10, while it looks like its around 8.5 in the heat diagram. Looking at the individual ratings: - Household Debt: 5.5 / 10 - Market Overvaluation: 9.1/10 - Market Volatility: 0.3/10 - Public Debt: 3.7/10 --> SUM = 18.6/40 or 46.5% Also I noted: Drawing a linear trend line through the "Market Overvaluation" diagram, does make it look…
Thanks for bringing this up - turns out that was a bug. I've fixed it now so they're the same.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#90The page strives solely on it's nice graphics, and sensationalist wording. There is little to no content of substance. For example the page calculates "Market Overvaluation" as the US stock market value divided by the yearly US GDP. Hilarious.
How would you calculate Market overvaluation?
> How would you calculate Market overvaluation?
The market is a conversation, not a calculation. There is no equation for its "proper" valuation because there is no equation for an asset's "proper" price. We have markets because these calculations, the economic calculation problem [1], are hard.
Financial theory has a habit of magicking uncertainty into variables that look like constants but aren't. With option theory, it's the volatility curve. With CAPM [2], it's the risk-free rate curve and general market risk premia (also beta). In the discounted cash flow model [3], it's the discount rate and future payout curve.
These models sort of work a lot of the time, but not always and not as well as we'd like them to. Unfortunately for the precision-minded, the bridge between the quantitative models are people doing their people things.
Note that I'm not saying it's all voodoo. There are models. But understanding them takes appreciating their constraints, assumptions and strengths.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_calculation_problem
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_asset_pricing_model