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Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

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Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#81

Post by Obi_Juan_Kenobi »

bluGill wrote: post #16
phamilton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For those not too familiar with professional baseball, there are 162 games in a season. A player starting every game would likely see 600+ at bats. A starting pitcher pitches every 5-6 days and will face 600+ batters per season. League wide there are about 125k outs recorded per season on 700k pitches. That's a ton of data. It allows you to ask questions like "What is the likelihood that a curveball is thrown for a s…

> It allows you to ask questions like "What is the likelihood that a curveball is thrown for a strike on a 3-0 count in the 8th inning?" and get statistically significant results. Does it though? medicine is learning that when you do data mining the bar for statistical significance needs to be much higher. When you do the traditional hypothesis/experiment loop and a result hits 95% likely that is good enough. However…

My impression with experience in bioinformatics is that these issues are likely not shared.

Biological systems are highly variable and absurdly complex, and most datasets come with a host of confounding factors. In comparison, baseball is extremely uniform, and the variability that does exist can often be quantified effectively, and more importantly, often is. Biologists can dream of such high-quality and thorough data, but that's a long way off. This means that the analysis used is quite different.

Genomic data depends greatly on the material used and the methods used. For instance, even with consistent genotypes and identical library preparation, if you collected your RNA a few hours later in the day, you now have a host of circadian changes to contend with that confound your analysis. No one can effectively keep track of all the confounding factors. This means that most analysis needs to be done with direct controls, biological replicates, etc.

In terms of actual analysis, I think the problem is somewhat overstated in your assessment. There are good statistical methods to adjust for multiple comparisons, and the field has largely caught-up to the biggest issues. This was perhaps more accurate 5 years ago, and was mostly the result of poor statistical literacy.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#82

Post by paulcole »

adventured wrote: post #41
bryanbuckley wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it suggest that leadoff guys will be cheaper in the future? The next moneyball trend will be fast guys who can accurately place hits?

Fast guys that can place hits have always been extremely rare (and will always be), even when they were considered a lot more valuable. There may be ten guys in the last 50 years that could do that at a high level, consistently, for a career.

Ichiro, Clemente, Rose who else? Gwynn (who was small and fast in the beginning of his career)? Henderson had a lot of pop and wasn't notably fast. Edgar Martinez had no speed at all but could hit for an insane average.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#83

Post by jdminhbg »

saghm wrote: post #76
ubernostrum wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other way to beat the shift -- which few teams/players have adopted -- is to bunt more. Which doesn't require speed, but is more effective with speed. I've noticed it's a thing the Cubs seem to be doing a bit of; Anthony Rizzo (who maybe isn't a great example given he's not a speedy base-stealer) gets shifted on a lot, and has laid down a few bunt hits this year as a way to beat it.

Most modern hitters seem to be really bad at bunting. A lot of times you'll see someone literally push the bat forward into the ball, which is literally the opposite of how to execute a good bunt. I think of bunting like free throws in basketball; they're both things that really seem like they should be so easy, and yet some of the best players really seem to struggle with it.

I don't know for sure if Malcolm Gladwell's claim that the granny shot is a better free throw technique is correct, but I would definitely say that there's a correlation between FTs and bunting in that ego gets in the way of perfecting both. So many lefty hitters that get shifted could hit at a .750 clip with even minimally competent bunting to third that pitchers manage to master in their off time.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#84

Post by philwelch »

saghm wrote: post #76
ubernostrum wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other way to beat the shift -- which few teams/players have adopted -- is to bunt more. Which doesn't require speed, but is more effective with speed. I've noticed it's a thing the Cubs seem to be doing a bit of; Anthony Rizzo (who maybe isn't a great example given he's not a speedy base-stealer) gets shifted on a lot, and has laid down a few bunt hits this year as a way to beat it.

Most modern hitters seem to be really bad at bunting. A lot of times you'll see someone literally push the bat forward into the ball, which is literally the opposite of how to execute a good bunt. I think of bunting like free throws in basketball; they're both things that really seem like they should be so easy, and yet some of the best players really seem to struggle with it.

It's not "the best players" who struggle with free throws so much as the taller players. That's probably because if you're seven feet tall, it's a lot easier for you to become a valuable player at the NBA level than if you're six feet tall, so guards tend to have more developed skills than centers. Though even this is starting to change in recent years.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#85

Post by philwelch »

jdminhbg wrote: post #83
saghm wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most modern hitters seem to be really bad at bunting. A lot of times you'll see someone literally push the bat forward into the ball, which is literally the opposite of how to execute a good bunt. I think of bunting like free throws in basketball; they're both things that really seem like they should be so easy, and yet some of the best players really seem to struggle with it.

I don't know for sure if Malcolm Gladwell's claim that the granny shot is a better free throw technique is correct, but I would definitely say that there's a correlation between FTs and bunting in that ego gets in the way of perfecting both. So many lefty hitters that get shifted could hit at a .750 clip with even minimally competent bunting to third that pitchers manage to master in their off time.

I'm really skeptical about the granny shot. The legend of the granny shot mostly comes from the free throw record of Rick Barry, who is admittedly an all-time great from the line, but he's also the only all-time great to shoot that way, and he doesn't even have the best career free throw percentage in NBA history. Complicating matters even further, the WNBA player with the best career free throw percentage, Elena Delle Donne, has a free throw percentage a couple points higher than any NBA player (making her perhaps the most proficient free throw shooter in the history of professional basketball) and even she shoots overhand: http://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/players/d/delleel01...

It doesn't make a lot of sense to have two completely different shot mechanics that you have to practice and train. Aside from Rick Barry, every good free throw shooter seems to use a variation on their normal shooting mechanic, sometimes starting with a consistent dribbling ritual to get them into rhythm (e.g. Rip Hamilton or Klay Thompson). Poor free throw shooters tend to be people who either don't have great shot mechanics in the first place or people who struggle with the unique mental pressure of free throw shooting. In the flow of a game it's hard to overthink yourself and get psyched out, so even guys like Bruce Bowen who could nail catch-and-shoot corner threes sometimes struggled when the game slowed down enough for the pressure to sink in.

Bunting to me seems more akin to the kind of "dirty work" that great players master and good players think they're above doing, like setting hard screens and making an effort on defense. If you're a really good bunter, you're not gonna have the kinds of numbers and highlight plays that lead to fame or fortune. Similarly, if you set hard screens or close off passing lanes or do a lot of the hard work that leads to wins but don't really lead to great individual stats, people are going to ignore you and assume a stat-chasing ball hog like Russell Westbrook is better than you.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#86

Post by mwpmaybe »

Woofles wrote: post #29
habosa wrote: post #22

As many have said this is a tactical reaction to changes in pitching and defense. It always amazes me how balanced the game of baseball is compared to other sports. It's been around for more than a century and people have become so much stronger and faster on both sides of the ball. Still, offense and defense remain so perfectly matched. The bases remain 90 feet apart and the pitcher still throws from 60 feet away. A…

Probably the largest (and most controversial) change in baseball was the adoption of the DH by the AL in the 70s. For a full history of rule changes in baseball: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/rulechng.shtml

Dead/live ball was probably more consequential.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#87

Post by thatwebdude »

habosa wrote: post #22

As many have said this is a tactical reaction to changes in pitching and defense. It always amazes me how balanced the game of baseball is compared to other sports. It's been around for more than a century and people have become so much stronger and faster on both sides of the ball. Still, offense and defense remain so perfectly matched. The bases remain 90 feet apart and the pitcher still throws from 60 feet away. A…

> A home run is still 400 feet.

The stadiums change, though; 400 feet is just the warning track, sometimes. 310 can get you one in Fenway (on the left side of the field).

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#88

Post by thatwebdude »

howeyc wrote: post #6

Interesting how the article mentions it would seem intuitive to someone new to the game as well. Just hit where there's less defense and more area to cover, the outfield.

That's getting harder and harder to do with "the shift".

Now players are specifically working to beat the shift.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#89

Post by InitialLastName »

ghaff wrote: post #35
habosa wrote: post #22

As many have said this is a tactical reaction to changes in pitching and defense. It always amazes me how balanced the game of baseball is compared to other sports. It's been around for more than a century and people have become so much stronger and faster on both sides of the ball. Still, offense and defense remain so perfectly matched. The bases remain 90 feet apart and the pitcher still throws from 60 feet away. A…

Around the beginning of Ken Burns' Baseball, Bob Costas made a similar point about distance. I suppose play could adapt to a certain degree but I have to believe that base paths that were 10%, much less 20%, longer or shorter would produce a radically different game. As others have noted, there have been some adjustments. But I agree with your basic point. (Not that I could ever get through that particular series. It…

The most glorious thing about that series is how clearly public domain the soundtrack is... nothing but jangly, often unrecognizably slow piano renditions of "The Star Spangled Banner", "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" and "Dixie". PBS is the coolest.

Re: Why MLB hitters are suddenly obsessed with launch angles

#90

Post by nradov »

philwelch wrote: post #84
saghm wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most modern hitters seem to be really bad at bunting. A lot of times you'll see someone literally push the bat forward into the ball, which is literally the opposite of how to execute a good bunt. I think of bunting like free throws in basketball; they're both things that really seem like they should be so easy, and yet some of the best players really seem to struggle with it.

It's not "the best players" who struggle with free throws so much as the taller players. That's probably because if you're seven feet tall, it's a lot easier for you to become a valuable player at the NBA level than if you're six feet tall, so guards tend to have more developed skills than centers. Though even this is starting to change in recent years.

I've seen a physics analysis which indicates that being very tall is actually a disadvantage for shooting free throws because the ball approaches the hoop at a shallower angle. Essentially they're aiming for a smaller target. Shorter players have to throw the ball up in a higher arc.
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