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What's Really Warming the World?

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Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#81

Post by mememachine »

euyyn wrote: post #72
mememachine wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How unlucky we would have to be sounds like something you can calculate rather than just claim off hand.

That's what's called a "p-value", and as you guessed it is indeed calculated. It's a basic tool of science, to the point that even better probabilistic tools have been advocated for years, and it's one of the first things you check when you're reviewing a paper.

I'm aware of what a "p-value" is but what were talking about is reconstruction from historical samples and its perfectly calculable what kind of events wouldnt show up in that reconstruction (and p-values have almost nothing to do with it). Your attitude is obnoxious.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#82

Post by firefoxd »

It's interesting that we still try to scare people with the effect of global warming by saying: Average World temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.

This may scientifically be a huge concern. But for the average person? When I open my window the temperature drops by more than 5 degrees and i don't even feel it.

However, the first day i went to cairo egypt, i immediately understood the problem of pollution. I smelled it right out of the plane. And for the years that followed I had to deal with the health consequences on a daily basis.

Climate change is boring, you still have to argue to convince people. But breathing in that thick grey smog shows you the consequences immediately.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#83

Post by olavgg »

rectang wrote: post #8

> The only real question is: What are we going to do about it? Zilch, so long as politicians corrupted by the fossil fuel industry are in power. "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" -- Upton Sinclair

This is what we can do https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade

It may not be cost effective today, but it may be later.

There are bigger threats out there than the current climate change. Antibiotics losing effectiveness is one, yet is seems like almost all countries in the world still ignores that fact.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#85

Post by euyyn »

briandear wrote: post #55
karl11 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sample size of our records is incredibly small when stacked against the history of the earth and all the records we're missing.

In addition, the quality of our data is subject to debate. For example, using ship-water inflow temperature measurements which are warmer than buoy-measured temperatures as well as using models of suspicious provenance to extrapolate data where none exists. NOAA researchers corrected for the "cold bias" from buoy measurements compared to measurements made in ship engine rooms. My point isn't to deny the climate is ch…

> using models of suspicious provenance

As in "I learned this model in a dark alley in Stalingrad, and I won't defend it in my paper"? Good luck trying to publish a paper if your model isn't well known and you don't explain it.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#86

Post by seizethecheese »

uberrr wrote: post #78
vivekd wrote: post #4

What makes me mad about these kinds of data based climate change arguments is that they don't engage with the data in an honest way. The huge problem is 1880 was one of the coldest years in history. That cold period was caused by volcanism, several volcanos erupted causing a cold period that lasted from the 1600s to the late 1800s. This period is known as the little ice age. The worst of this period was in 1816 which…

I find it interesting that a self professed lawyer would create an account on a technology news website during an election year and regularly post against government regulation. How do you have so much time to argue against climate change and other "liberal" topics?

Please don't attack the messenger if you have nothing to say about the message.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#88

Post by [deleted] »

vivekd wrote: post #4

What makes me mad about these kinds of data based climate change arguments is that they don't engage with the data in an honest way. The huge problem is 1880 was one of the coldest years in history. That cold period was caused by volcanism, several volcanos erupted causing a cold period that lasted from the 1600s to the late 1800s. This period is known as the little ice age. The worst of this period was in 1816 which…

[deleted]

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#89

Post by scatters »

37 wrote: post #74
cjensen wrote: post #54

That was a terrible use of graphs. The biggest error in this presentation is that author-chose a scale to ensure that the carbon scale was amplified just right to appear to be the same as the temperature scale. In all other cases, he chose small amplifications so that the other factors would appear to be unchanged. The second error in this presentation is that the graphs plainly show that aerosols do have a negative…

What even is the scale for these comparisons? I don't know how one can measure orbital changes, land use, or solar or volcanic activity in degrees Fahrenheit.

The graph shows predicted global temperature from climate models, with 90% confidence intervals, varying only that factor and keeping other factors unchanged. So the scale is exactly the same unit - Kelvin.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#90

Post by throw_away_777 »

vivekd wrote: post #4

What makes me mad about these kinds of data based climate change arguments is that they don't engage with the data in an honest way. The huge problem is 1880 was one of the coldest years in history. That cold period was caused by volcanism, several volcanos erupted causing a cold period that lasted from the 1600s to the late 1800s. This period is known as the little ice age. The worst of this period was in 1816 which…

It is interesting to note that the statistical evidence for global warming is relatively weak (at least compared to particle physics, where 3 to 5 sigma is expected for discoveries), https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/07/no-statistically-sign... it is only because we have a known causal mechanism that we can say with confidence that man-made global warming is occurring. I liked that this article focused on causes of global temperature change, even if it did not present the data in a good manner.
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