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The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

fortune.com

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Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#81
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need economic indicators that reflect conditions for most people, not just the top few. Indicators that are often used in the news like rising GDP, house prices and manufacturing output are pretty useless if only a few get benefits from them.

We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure.

The physical house will typically depreciate with regular use. It is the value of the "location" that can fluctuate wildly in recent years. The policy failure is allowing location values to to become so disparate and sometimes hard to predict.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#82

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Silicon Valley is called that because that's how it used to be. They actually made the chips there, and if you grew up there, you could get computer parts cheaply and easily. Jobs and Wozniak could build the Apple I in a garage only because of where they were.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Producing our own food is not exciting either, but would you like to live in a place that produces no food and has to import 100% of what is needed to survive? This is the same thing here. Manufacturing is not a sexy activity anymore, but it is necessary, as long as we still live in a physical (non-virtual) world.

> a place that produces no food and has to import 100% of what is needed to survive like, say, New York City? Sure! No, the rooftop garden on the Park Slope Whole Foods does not count.

Ny is not in a position where the people whom feed it could use it as a leverage in diplomatic relationships

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Producing our own food is not exciting either, but would you like to live in a place that produces no food and has to import 100% of what is needed to survive? This is the same thing here. Manufacturing is not a sexy activity anymore, but it is necessary, as long as we still live in a physical (non-virtual) world.

> a place that produces no food and has to import 100% of what is needed to survive like, say, New York City? Sure! No, the rooftop garden on the Park Slope Whole Foods does not count.

He's obviously talking about doing so on an international level. As long as the US is around, New York will never have to question whether or not the other states will be willing to do business with it.

While its highly unlikely, its slightly more believable that in the event of another world war or some kind of global food epidemic, a country that doesn't produce its own food might be completely screwed.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#85
post #38

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

> Although I hope it is true. I don't know if being a manufacturing powerhouse is actually all that exciting anymore. There aren't really that many jobs in manufacturing anymore. Some of Toyota's modern car plants employ a meager 1500 people which is about and order of magnitude decrease from what car plants used to employ. This las election was frustrating for this very reason everybody assumes getting manufacturing…

Jobs don't matter, the goods coming out of those plants are still valuable and making handsome profit with enough scale.

As we move towards automation, wherever the means of production are located is going to dictate who rules the world a hundred years from now. If you don't have a manufacturing base in your country in time it will be a losing battle to try to afford buying other countries unlimited goods with your limited human resources.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#86

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Relieved to see Deloitte issuing a report sure to ease the firm's path toward sizable billings from Chinese businesses, SOEs and government entities who are currently struggling with overcapacity and other existential economic threats. I chuckle as I see energy, currency and infrastructure inputs seemingly underweighted in their analysis. As one example... the USD is expected to continue appreciating sharply against developing nation currencies to the great detriment of US manufacturers who exports goods.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#87
post #77
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been finding this graph: https://tropicsofmeta.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/2007-real-... very helpful (y-axis is percentages of GDP and workforce.) Manufacturing never left the US, in terms of output, it's just that jobs did.

This chart is almost worthless as a measure of US Manufacturing capacity or production. Why? Because sizable orders to a handful of companies (eg. Boeing, GE, Lockheed, etc.) offsets and distorts the disappearance of thousands of medium and small manufacturers over the past two decades. Its tempting to attribute the associated job losses to automation, but one look at this table: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of…

Of course manufacturing jobs have shifted overseas; I can't imagine anyone disputing that. I'm not sure what that table means in this context, though. Replacement of smaller manufacturers with larger conglomerates is indeed a major driver of the shrink in jobs, and I don't see where I mentioned automation.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#88
post #30

Upon what data and assumptions is this prediction based? How will this help Joe Six-pack?

It won't help Joe Six-pack. And your questions make me think you did not read the article. The manufacturing output will increase due to automation & other improved techniques. My fave quote from the article: > So while it's understandable the state of manufacturing is of concern to presidential candidates, those who say they can bring back lost jobs in the sector either don't know what they are talking about, or are…

> So while it's understandable the state of manufacturing is of concern to presidential candidates, those who say they can bring back lost jobs in the sector either don't know what they are talking about, or are being disingenuous.

Or both, in case of the current president-elect.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#89
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about inflation? Why would anyone buy land if it was guaranteed to depreciate. I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money.

> I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money. Certainly, if houses stop appreciating rent prices will increase to cover some of the difference.

Maybe if housing/land didn't appreciate over time then investment dollars would stop chasing it, and the overall price of renting would stay flat or decline due to the lack of capital inflow to the underlying asset. Who can say?

The problem with these thought experiments is you have to assume some reason why housing prices have stopped increasing, but also that nothing else about the economy has changed. Otherwise the thing that stopped housing prices increasing has probably also had some other pretty serious effects on the economy.

It's like asking "what if World War 2 never happened"? Well, why didn't it happen? The same forces would have pushed us in the same directions. If it didn't happen, well, that world doesn't look very much like the one we live in, so who can really say what would have happened?

In general, making as tiny a change as possible, housing still would be priced the same as it is now - i.e. based on what the market will bear, rather than some weird idea that landlords would get vindictive and crank rents just because their asset is no longer appreciating. To the extent possible that's what they already do, and they would price themselves out of the market with further increases.

But if landlording is still a revenue-positive activity, then people will do it, and housing prices would continue to increase in anticipation of future gains. People would still want to move to desirable locations like big cities, and that increases housing prices too.

So I don't see how exactly this happens without a major, major shift in the housing market - something like "landlording is a revenue-negative activity" or "there is a significant chance of losing your asset value in a fashion that it will definitely never recover within the span of several generations". i.e. nothing like the world we live in.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since I'm not interested in arguing about it I'm not particularly motivated to define it clearly. But good examples are life expectancy, physical pain relief, availability of the entire sum of human knowledge through a small glass and metal rectangle that fits in your pocket, likelihood of living in a democratic country, likelihood of avoiding a violent death, etc.

But housing and education prices continue to outpace wage growth, with medical care becoming increasingly expensive. Things are objectively better, but the non-wealthy see their societies stagnate and wealth being extracted and concentrated far away from their communities.

Education at least, the best chemist, economist, physicist or whatever fresh out of school probably wouldn't do to well against even a poor graduate today.

Relativity, quantum mechanics, crystal growth, there is just so much they didn't know. In any field, really.

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