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Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

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Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#81

I have yet to speak with anyone who thinks Snapchat's valuation is realistic and that their business model will sustain them. When I see this I just think of Twitter all over again. I would love to hear arguments supporting Snapchat though.

I would look at similar products in international markets(especially SE Asia) for how insanely huge Snapchat could become.

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#82
post #40

I'm surprised (rather, disappointed) that the article doesn't make any comparisons to Facebook's IPO. For today's 14-to-25-year-olds, Snapchat is the new Facebook, in terms of user engagement, market penetration, mindshare -- so it stands to reason in terms of valuation it would be too. There are some important differences, of course. Facebook owns multiple properties that mount competition to Snap Inc: Instagram, Me…

Where is the data supporting this statement? "For today's 14-to-25-year-olds, Snapchat is the new Facebook, in terms of user engagement, market penetration, mindshare" I'm not saying it's untrue; I would just like to see some reliable data to back this up. Anecdotally; most of the teens I know are using Instagram rather than Snapchat, whereas the people I know using Snapchat are in their mid 20s to mid 30s.

Good idea.

Fortune's April article [1] on the investment firm Piper Jaffray's 'Taking Stock with Teens' survey [2] shows that in their Spring 2016 survey Snapchat has tied or surpassed Instagram for most important social network among teens; the article includes a graph of the last 3 surveys. Mediakix, which specializes in social influencer marketing, publishes periodic assessments aimed for marketers about the social networks -- with sources. In January they compared Bloomberg and Fortune articles to conclude that Snapchat's video views surpassed those of Facebook [3].

[1] http://fortune.com/2016/04/13/snapchat-instagram-piper-jaffr... [2] http://www.piperjaffray.com/3col.aspx?id=4035 [3] http://mediakix.com/2016/01/snapchat-statistics-2016-markete...

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#83
post #74

There's a sales technique where the first person to state a value causes other people to pick values around it. So Snapchat struck first and says that they are worth 40 billion. Minions listen to that and think that 35 billion would be a bargain.

I think you are referring to this effect:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#84

When a company like Uber is raising insane amounts of money I think to myself - "ok, they're working on vehicle automation and other ambitious projects, it makes sense". When a company like snapchat is looking for 4B in addition to existing funding I am left completely dumbfounded. Can someone please explain why they would need this much cash?

The engineering community is sleeping on Snapchat, but shouldn't be. My life is AR. I'm the CEO for an AR company, I speak write and live and breathe all things AR. Snapchat is poised to be the most important AR company around for several reasons. 1. They have a MASSIVE userbase that is comfortable with sharing their lives 2. That userbase has already shown an interest in AR - and yes whether you like it or not their…

They are not the only player, but they probably have the most accepting user base. They don't have the largest user base amongst the AR players though.

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#85
post #74

There's a sales technique where the first person to state a value causes other people to pick values around it. So Snapchat struck first and says that they are worth 40 billion. Minions listen to that and think that 35 billion would be a bargain.

Yep, and that sales technique is based on the well studied cognitive bias named anchoring: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have captured an important segment of the market (12-2x years olds). I also think that people In this age group find it a ton more engaging than the alternatives.

FB really made it when the captured the old people. The issue is the the 12-20 years are quite mercurial. 15 years ago it was AIM,MSN, Yahoo chat, then myspace, then facebook. Now its snap chat and instagram. Its hard to keep the market since when you get friend request from Mom or Dad do you really want to be in that social network anymore?

I don't think 12-20 year olds are that mercurial, it's just a small age range, so in 8 years it will be an entirely new group of people. Fifteen years is nearly two full lengths of that duration, so it's no wonder that AIM/MSN/Yahoo aren't in use by the current 12-20 year olds. It's only very recently that I (a 29 year old) finally phased out AIM in favor of other channels. Once you capture a social group, it's fairly stable, there's just a constant stream of new social groups as each year's new 12-20 year olds start going online.

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#88

I have yet to speak with anyone who thinks Snapchat's valuation is realistic and that their business model will sustain them. When I see this I just think of Twitter all over again. I would love to hear arguments supporting Snapchat though.

Big user base coveted by advertisers. There's also clearly a market for a social network for teenagers separate from Facebook (so kids don't have their parents spying on them).

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#89
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The engineering community is sleeping on Snapchat, but shouldn't be. My life is AR. I'm the CEO for an AR company, I speak write and live and breathe all things AR. Snapchat is poised to be the most important AR company around for several reasons. 1. They have a MASSIVE userbase that is comfortable with sharing their lives 2. That userbase has already shown an interest in AR - and yes whether you like it or not their…

Their filters do SLAM?

No, it does face recognition and orientation, it's far simpler than slam and have nothing to do with it.

Re: Snapchat Seeks to Raise as Much as $4B in IPO

#90

I have yet to speak with anyone who thinks Snapchat's valuation is realistic and that their business model will sustain them. When I see this I just think of Twitter all over again. I would love to hear arguments supporting Snapchat though.

Big user base coveted by advertisers. There's also clearly a market for a social network for teenagers separate from Facebook (so kids don't have their parents spying on them).

> There's also clearly a market for a social network for teenagers separate from Facebook

Bebo failed at that.

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