Master Plan, Part Deux • Hacker News Board

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#81

Post by usaphp » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:44 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

You are comparing premium tesla sedans with ford and Honda cars, of course premium car will take longer to build. Porsche for example produced 189,000 cars [1] in 2014 with 19,000 employees. And the average price of Porsche car is also lower than Tesla's. [1] - http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=897

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#82

Post by tacticus » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:45 AM UTC

manicdee wrote: post #59

stephenitis wrote: post #20

I hear about bus drivers and truck drivers getting into accidents due to drowsiness enough that it's a constant worry whenever I'm on the highway next to one. I wonder if I'd feel safer if i saw a Tesla Semi knowing that were wasn't a human behind the wheel. Should autonomous vehicles be identified as such (special lights or label) so that real humans can know not to be erratic around it?

Should humans be monitored and have driving privileges revoked if they drive erratically? Historically yes, if you cause problems your licence is revoked and in some cases your vehicle is seized. I look forward to the rise of the machines, with humans losing driving privileges for simple things like wandering across lanes without signalling, running red lights, hitting pedestrians or bumping other vehicles in the par…

"simple things like ... hitting pedestrians"

That doesn't seem very simple to me.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#83

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:45 AM UTC

thucydides wrote: post #23

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

[deleted]

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#84

Post by maxerickson » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:46 AM UTC

tamersalama wrote: post #54

maxerickson wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buildings. A car roof isn't enough area and isn't pointed in the right direction.

Not if it's a trailer.

I haven't figured it out, but my intuition is that the increased energy requirements of a tractor trailer mean that there isn't enough area there either.

Back of napkin, it looks like you get ~3*15 meters of roof which seems to translate to 10 kW of output under good conditions and then you need something like 150 kW to rumble up the highway.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#85

Post by amluto » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:47 AM UTC

Master plan part one made sense: it all lead to Tesla as it is today.

But master plan part deux seems odd: what exactly does "One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app" for solar have to do with the Tesla transportation part?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#86

Post by jpatokal » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:49 AM UTC

usaphp wrote: post #81

Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

You are comparing premium tesla sedans with ford and Honda cars, of course premium car will take longer to build. Porsche for example produced 189,000 cars [1] in 2014 with 19,000 employees. And the average price of Porsche car is also lower than Tesla's. [1] - http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=897

Sure, but that's still ~3x more per employee than Tesla.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#87

Post by cpwright » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:49 AM UTC

I'm very curious what the pickup offering will be like, and compare to existing offerings from the big 3, since it is a "a new kind of pickup truck". I think the segment of the pickup market that is mostly an SUV, but occasionally needs to haul/tow stuff could be well served by Tesla. They also have plans for a semi, so maybe they'll actually be able to compete for actual work trucks that haul/tow on a regular basis too; but the energy density of the battery compared to gasoline/diesel makes me doubtful.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#88

Post by kilroy123 » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:49 AM UTC

CaptSpify wrote: post #79

Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

I've only mildly followed him, but I remember hearing he is extremely aggressive with his timelines. Is he normally so far off on his estimates?

Yes

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#89

Post by danhak » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:49 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

Ford can have fewer employees per car because they're at full scale, they've outsourced nearly all their engineering and have outsourced their sales as well via an antiquated dealer model.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#90

Post by j0e1 » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 1:50 AM UTC

Haven't seen such a clean, crisp plan that has been implemented flawlessly by a company. Makes me reconsider how I should think the next time I'm asked to write a vision/mission statement for anything-company/product.