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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

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Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#81

Post by unprepare »

pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

>Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny...

IIRC The smart car beats the Hummer in crash test ratings....

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#82

Post by clenfest »

05 wrote: post #29
madaxe_again wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because with EVs we will see the rise of autonomous vehicles - once you have a car that is run by a computer and powered by electricity, and self-driving tech is available and affordable, it becomes a no-brainer. Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop, as we'll see less car ownership and more car use, meaning fewer cars parking, better traffic flow, etc. I believe the future of road tra…

> Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop That's simply not true; not only will SDCs create 'empty miles' of 0-passenger cars, but they will make people more comfortable with longer commutes (you can sleep on the way to work now), and with average commute getting longer we'll get more passenger-miles. Sharing won't really pick up (except on the low end, displacing public transport) becau…

If you own a car, the marginal cost of an additional trip is low (basically just gas). If you don't have a car, the cost of each trip will reflect its true cost. Basic economics will tell you this will lead to less trips, trip consolidation, other modes of transportation (walking/bike) chosen as primary transportation because ride sharing is there if you really need it. The really big cost that most people consider is parking. If large wasteful parking lots are eliminated, cities can become more compact which in turn will cause even more people to give up cars and so on.

As to your point about sharing, at some point if you want to be in the car by yourself it will cost extra. Again, economics...

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#83

Post by noir_lord »

nathan_long wrote: post #56
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the real test is how survivable the vehicle is in a collision. Probability of suffering an accident is a separate discussion. If your family is T-boned in an intersection by a drunk driver who ran a red light, are you going to say, "Well, at least the odds of that happening were very small, since she rarely drives!" No, you're going to be dealing with serious injuries or possibly deaths and you're going to be say…

Once, I was driving about 65mph on a state highway and a car pulled out of a farm road right in front of me. I had one or two seconds to react and swerve around them. They were probably going 10mph when I passed them. I was driving a Toyota Camry. If I'd been driving a large truck, I probably couldn't have avoided the crash. When I buy a car, I want to know both how likely it is that I can avoid a crash (manueverabil…

Absolutely, also if you get hit from the side there is a lot more to it than just the weight of the car.

I'd sooner be in the light car with a chassis that doesn't get crushed into the cabin than a heavy car which does.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_r5UJrxcck I know which one Id like to be in..

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#84

Post by mc32 »

unprepare wrote: post #81
pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

>Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny... IIRC The smart car beats the Hummer in crash test ratings....

Yes but this car is not a Smart, so they may not enjoy the same accident survivability rates, specially given the price point, I'd want to see sanctioned crash test results before accepting they are equivalent to Smarts when it comes to occupant protection in collisions.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#85

Post by nilstycho »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

The plural of Yaris would likely be Yares if it were Latin and Yarides if it were Greek. The initial “y” makes it sound more Greek to my ear, so if we’re going to have fun with the plural form, I’d suggest Yarides.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#86

Post by madaxe_again »

roel_v wrote: post #76
madaxe_again wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because with EVs we will see the rise of autonomous vehicles - once you have a car that is run by a computer and powered by electricity, and self-driving tech is available and affordable, it becomes a no-brainer. Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop, as we'll see less car ownership and more car use, meaning fewer cars parking, better traffic flow, etc. I believe the future of road tra…

"Think A-roads in town centres, with houses on one side and a park on the other." Where are those houses so cheap that it becomes profitable to bet on the emergence of autonomous EV's only? Cheap houses are cheap in most places because they're in undesirable locations. I can imagine houses in commuting distance of major job centers becoming more attractive with autonomous vehicles (I mean, the commuting distance will…

Think Bristol and the like. Plenty of period properties in great locations, but smack next to traffic lights on an a-Road, therefore noisy, dirty, 30% or more cheaper than one street over. Often unrenovated as nobody sees any point in investing in a place that has its value substantially diminished by traffic, so cheaper yet.

No, hardly a squillionaire, just mortgaged up to my eyeballs and have three so far, eyeing up number four. Live in one of them. They're my hedge against the apocalypse not happening.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#87

Post by greedo »

madaxe_again wrote: post #14
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

Gotta call BS. Gas in my area is currently $2/gal. I think it's highly unlikely to go up "orders of magnitude" in a short timescale, unless you're intentionally using weasel words. There's plenty of oil around, wells are being capped due to oversupply/drop in demand.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#88

Post by Retric »

Someone1234 wrote: post #79
S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

This issue was covered in great depth when the Smart Car (e.g. Fortwo) got popular in Europe. Smart Cars have a lot of safety features, seat belts, airbags (4x), ABS, stability control, but the question was really about impact distribution. They put in a tridion protection cell[0] and moved the engine to the back to offer SOME crumple at the front. The Euro NCAP rated it 4/5, IIHS rated it "good" but it later failed…

If your driving in a city and never break 45mph then overall risks change significantly.

I drive a relatively small car for the US, and it's about the minimum I would consider safe at 70MPH. But, if you are spending 98% of your time in the city then simply renting a larger car becomes very viable. You can rent a mid size SUV at ~600$ per week and for a longer vacation you can upsize for minimal cost. Further, if your flying somewhere your car becomes meaningless anyway.

PS: Remember a tiny electric could end up saving you 250+$ / month.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#89

Post by greedo »

steve19 wrote: post #16
madaxe_again wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

> we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale Do you really believe that in a short period of time gasoline is going to cost a few orders of magnitude more... that's 1,000x the current cost? Post-fracking that's unlikely to happen. Prices may return to previous levels, but they won't move much more than that. Alternative energy will reduce demand for oil and t…

He's just being foolishly hyperbolic with the term "magnitude." He even uses hedge words to protect his oracular status.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#90

Post by grandalf »

ljf wrote: post #75
grandalf wrote: post #58

When you buy a car in the US, most of what you pay for is fancy molded plastic and attractive sheet metal work, cleverly organized by the manufacturer into trim level "tiers" intended to create maximum perceived value. The package is then financed or leased with incentive financing and the sights are set on getting you to replace it after 2-4 years whether it needs to be replaced or not. I think a 6 passenger mini-va…

I like this idea, but as someone that recently survived a fairly nasty car accident at less than 60mph, I'd want to see what safety measures you also got for that money. Nothing makes me more happy than that I had the accident in my volvo. It was a decently priced 2nd hand car, but it's safety features are what saved me.

Indeed. It would be interesting to see what kind of star-rating could be achieved using inexpensive technology.

Things like crumple zones and steel reinforced panels are cheap, things like AWD traction control are somewhat more expensive.

In terms of overall platform cost, though, I'd expect it to be possible to design a very safe car without increasing the price significantly, perhaps somewhat at the expense of aesthetics.

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