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AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

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Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#81

Post by stephenboyd »

landryraccoon wrote: post #55
badminton1 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a tool if you can't control it. Politicians fool countries delivering empty promises about better health, education and security. A supraintelligent AI could promise making humans rich, healthy and powerful, to then break its promise and dominate the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_box

Well, it would have to have a motivation to do so. Evolution has put complex motivations into human beings for billions of years, self preservation being chief among them. Even if we put motivation for self preservation into an AI, we might not do as well as nature did, leaving the AI open to self destruction or shutdown by humans - simply because the AI has no motivation not to allow humans to turn it off. Human des…

> Basically, why would an AI want to dominate the world?

Humans are going to program their AI's to try to make as much money as possible. Many corporations are already mindless and reckless amoral machines that relentlessly try to optimize profits despite any externalities. Try to imagine Exxon, Wal-Mart, and Amazon run by an intelligence beyond human understanding or accountability.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#82

Post by Radim »

flyingbutter wrote: post #50

The Chinese 9 Dan player Ke Jie basically said the game is lost after around 40 mins or so. He still thinks that he has a 60% chance of winning against AlphaGo (down from 100% on day one). But I doubt Google will bother to go to China and challenge him.

Challenging Ke Jie is way too small a goal for DeepMind at this point.

I wonder if even the idea from the AGA stream today, to get all the best pros in the world together and challenge AlphaGo as a team, is enough.

Perhaps releasing the core AlphaGo as open source (to the extent it's not dependent on internal Google machinery), or at least publishing its trained model, may be the next step. Let people "challenge themselves" however they want.

EDIT: Also, Lee Sedol had his time in the sun, but commiserations to Ke Jie. He's just 19, already number #1 in the world, his whole career in front of him... and this happens.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#83

Post by codecamper »

bronz wrote: post #52

Once again, I am so glad that I caught this on the live-stream because it will be in the history books. The implications of these games are absolutely tremendous. Consider GO: it is a game of sophisticated intuition. We have arguably created something that beats the human brain in its own arena, although the brain and AlphaGO do not use the same underlying mechanisms. And this is the supervised model. Once unsupervis…

Yes. We will witness the birth of Marvin the Android.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#84

Post by badminton1 »

flyingbutter wrote: post #50

The Chinese 9 Dan player Ke Jie basically said the game is lost after around 40 mins or so. He still thinks that he has a 60% chance of winning against AlphaGo (down from 100% on day one). But I doubt Google will bother to go to China and challenge him.

AlphaGo has also improved very quickly. Without doubt, the AlphaGo seen playing against Fan Hui would have lost against Lee Sedol. But in a couple of months its playing level raised significantly.

Lee Sedol said he could beat AlphaGo, based on the Fan Hui games. Ke Jie said he could beat AlphaGo, based on the Lee Sedol games.

Ke Jie belongs to a similar category than Lee Sedol, and we could see how Lee Sedol was completely dominated by AlphaGo, 3-0 so far. It is not unreasonable to say AlphaGo will most likely beat Ke Jie, and even if that doesn't happen the first time, AlphaGo can be improved by adding more infrastructure and training time.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#85

Post by pixl97 »

theroof wrote: post #73

Is anyone also asking themselves when they'll be able to play against this level of AI on their mobile phone? Or formulated differently: when will an "AlphaGo" (or equivalent) app appear in the play/app store? In 2 years? In 1 year? In 3 months?

Well, we can't answer that question at this point. We do know that the system is more powerful than a human, so the question becomes "How much hardware can we take away and still be better than the best". That sets the hardware floor we have to reach.

The current answer is, still a long way off. With massive forecasts in GPU power over the next few years it may be reasonable for people to have desktops in their home with this kind of power possibly within a decade. I won't even give a timeline for phones because of the power requirements.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#86

Post by nikbackm »

badminton1 wrote: post #64
yulunli wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems to be more impressive than the Deep Blue moment. In 1996, Deep Blue didn't make it on the first try. Even in 1997, it has been a draw until the 6th game. Although AlphaGo has 2 games to go, the first three seem to be a clear victory.

Far more impressive than the Deep Blue moment. This time the computer did not win out of pure bruteforce. Deep Blue relied on an opening book and massive computational power to explore the game tree. After the opening it was pretty much on its own, bruteforcing moves. This technology used a neural network trained with hundreds of thousands of games which provided the pattern matching aspect, combined with the brutefo…

Deep Blue was the 259th most powerful supercomputer of its time, what might the corresponding placement of Alpha-Go be?

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#87

Post by drjesusphd »

esturk wrote: post #24
niuzeta wrote: post #3

Impressive work by Google research team. I'm both impressed and scared. This is our Deep Blue moment folks. a history is made.

Give credit where credit is due. This is DeepMind's research, and Google acquired them in 2014. Of course, Google gave them a lot of resources to train AlphaGo. But let's not bury the subsidiary, or I guess they would both be subs to Alphabet now making the two even less related.

If they wanted ultimate credit, they shouldn't have sold. They made a judgment call and part of that is Google gets a share of the congratulations.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#88

Post by pmontra »

badminton1 wrote: post #32

I don't think Ke Jie would win against Alpha Go either.

I agree. Lee lost a title 3-2 to Ke Je recently but he lost very convincingly against AlphaGo. Ke Je is not that stronger than Lee. He's going to lose too but he's 18 so I understand that he's feeling he can do anything.

My feeling is that AlphaGo could be a couple of stones stronger than the best pros. Considering that dans are capped at 9 but there are 9 dans that always win against some other 9 dans, the best pros could be 10 dan on their scale. That would also be 10 dan on the amateur scale (European, Americans are usually one stone gentler and Japanese much more than that). AlphaGo could be 12d amateur or, don't know, 14-15 dan pro? (pro levels are on a finer scale)

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#89

Post by 21 »

Yuioup wrote: post #53
starshadowx2 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In game 2 there was a point where Michael Redmond seemed to do a triple take and couldn't believe the move AlphaGo played.

Yeah they seem to forget that Alpha-Go is looking deep into the future. I have not read the Nature paper but I assume it's playing out possible moves way into the future. At some point it figured that the Ko fight at the bottom was already won. Hence that white move at the top which nobody saw coming. Another interesting moment was when Michael Redmond said "A human would typically not spend too much time thinking on…

He was talking about a pretty much forced move. But it makes sense for AlphaGo to still think it through, after all it's pretty young and experimental, and the Monte Carlo is good at catching blunders.

Also, that forced move it's very obvious to us that it's forced, but AlphaGo might not have this concept.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#90

Post by dwaltrip »

seanwilson wrote: post #71
jonbaer wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hassabis discusses some StarCraft here ... http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/10/11192774/demis-hassabis-in... ... good interview.

I read that too. It's interesting StarCraft is suggested instead of any classic board games. It sounds like Go is the pinnacle of board games then. Would StarCraft be the last game AI has to beat?

Starcraft is definitely up there. No-limit texas holdem poker is also very difficult.

After that... then we have games that involve physical movement. Although I'm not sure what would be fair for strength & speed of robots vs humans. I'm imagining a team of robot soccer players, for example.

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