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Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

nytimes.com

81–90 of 250 posts

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Credit slushes around like crazy for years. These days it flows into an S&P trading near 20 P/E, negative government bond interest rates, corporate bond interest rates below historical default rates, reinsurance treaties and cat bonds trading below expected value, and what else? Demand needs to pick up with credit availability or it just leads to asset bubbles.

Here we have Grand Poobah of Keynesian economics and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman in 2002 calling for a Housing Bubble to replace the NASDAQ bubble: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip... >To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs…

That's completely out of context. He's not suggesting that it's a good idea, he's discussing the Fed's motivations.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#84

> As Japan’s economic doldrums have lingered, its leaders have tried a number of tricks over the years, from ... to flooding the financial system with cash. How was that done exactly and why it didn't work?

I believe it was done through quantitative easing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#Japan_befo...

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#85
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question: if the government doesn't want people "parking their money" in government bonds at all ... then why not just stop issuing government bonds altogether, thus giving banks no choice but to invest in the market instead? Is that somehow impossible? Would it make the market illiquid? Are there laws concerning the required volatility caps for the securities backing savings accounts that would have to be relaxed?

This isn't about the rate on government bonds, it's the overnight rate on savings deposits.

Government is charging commercial banks negative interest rates.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#86
Those who think Japan is unique in its condition and/or that the answer to its problems is more of the same old "advice" as proffered by standard issue economists and business types might profit from Robert Gordon's recently published "American Growth". (paper version: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf) At least, it can offer a different, longer-term perspective on the issues.

It's not impossible that we will look back in 20 years and see Japan not as some sort of failure but simply as the first society that had to learn to live without growth.

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#87

Maybe OT: Isn't this just proof that Japan needs to let go of it's biggest barrier to growth? By which I mean it's non-existing immigration? I've been recently to Japan and despite my fears Tokio was a really affordable place (leaving out the hotel prices of course). I thought this was due to the lack of growth and the recent quantitative easing and other government measures. Measurements that seem to be failing at t…

Lots of people have tried immigrating to Japan, because it is awesome in so many ways. However, the drawbacks that keep people from staying seem kind of inherent to how society is set up:

http://japaneseruleof7.com/japan-scam/

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#88
I understand the economic theory behind encouraging banks to lend, but I don't see how this will encourage companies to borrow. I've been under the impression that companies aren't willing to borrow because expansion/growth is very risky right now primarily due to the population not wanting to spend money. If people don't spend money, then expansions will fail simply because the company wouldn't be able to bring in positive cash flow to pay back even a 0% interest loan. And people aren't spending money due to several factors. Some big ones being:

1. The general population doesn't want to spend money because of the lack of/slow income growth. So savings appear safer.

2. Aging population means fewer youths and more elderly people every year. The elderly population would be living off of savings/pension so they are essentially on a fixed (and slowly depreciating due to inflation) income. Spending cannot increase here.

3. Youths, meanwhile, are faced with entering an economy that isn't expanding (direct result of companies not wanting to spend). So you aren't exactly boosting the number of spenders in the economy.

Then there is the very quiet startup economy which is not helped by Japan's hiring system. Salaries are seniority based and there is far less jumping between companies because of that. Also, if a graduating student misses out on the annual hiring season, they are very much unlikely to get hired for a stable job until the following year at which point they will have to compete with a fresh batch of graduates. So if you choose to go the startup route, every year you do so results in worse earnings and a far more difficult road to stability should your startup fail (which most do no matter what country you live in).

So what I'm wondering is: How is the negative interest rate supposed to fix the borrower side of the equation?

Supply means nothing if there is no demand. I haven't read much about Abenomics, but the couple of things I have looked into all point to Abe focusing only on the lending side. There doesn't seem to be anything that is promoting confidence on the borrower & buyer side. What have I missed here?

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#89
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

, Norway, Turkey and ISIS.

Honest question: why Norway? I thought it was more about Russia, Iran, Venezuela, ISIS and that Norway was simply collateral.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-economy-insight-idU...

Re: Bank of Japan, in a Surprise, Adopts Negative Interest Rate

#90
post #29

This was news.... 3 days ago. I don't understand how it's rocketing up the HN front page only now.

On FT or Bloomberg, yeah. HN has more important things to do, like arguing if one can call a variable "iGiveHead" in a FOSS project[1]... ____ [1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11018019

By linking that thread you're giving it more attention which is counterproductive.
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