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Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

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Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#81

Post by kelukelugames »

lmm wrote: post #57
putlake wrote: post #9

Scott Adams is very entertaining. He predicted Trump's staying power way back in the summer when everyone (including me) thought his candidacy was just a joke. In fact, he has predicted a landslide for Trump in the general election. He says it's based on his training as a hypnotist, which gives him an insight into the art of persuasion. Over the years I've learned many things from following Adams' blog. He recommende…

It's weird. He talks a load of nonsense, and makes basic logical errors all the time, going as far as to recommend nonsense pseudoscience. At times I wonder if maybe he isn't actually that smart, and just got lucky somehow. But he makes accurate predictions. Consistently. You can't ignore that.

What accurate predictions has he made? Just the one about Trump's popularity?

Adams claims Trump is popular because Trump is persuasive. Trump is certainly a good orator, but that's not the only reason.

Do you remember when Trump spearheaded the birthers during the 2008 election? He knew he could channel working class frustration by appealing to xenophobia and racism.

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#82

Post by kelukelugames »

simonswords82 wrote: post #65
kelukelugames wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Damn, this is some extra crazy. https://www.reddit.com/user/plannedchaos Good thing PG only updates his footnotes when people "misunderstand" him.

Wow - there's few better examples of the fine line between crazy and genius. I can't tell if he's using the plannedchaos accounts on various sites to seriously defend himself by proxy, or is it that he thinks the Internet is a load of pixels on a screen that unlike some of us he just doesn't take it very seriously? Edit: somebody commented below that Scott is now a professional troll, and I'm inclined to think that t…

I wrote that comment. Adams is out of touch.

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#83

Post by existencebox »

autarch wrote: post #43
existencebox wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This article seems to hold up to my personal anecdata, and that of many of the mentor figures I've had over the years. (I'd also note the 2007 publish date) However, I've (as with the parent) read some of his writing recently that made me just shake my head and want to stop, and I say this as a die-hard Dilbert fan. His opinions on trump being some sort of personal-image savant at "hacking psychology" (don't recall t…

Re: his articles on Trump. I'm not sure if he's right, but I do appreciate that he's been willing to make very specific predictions about the future. So far it seems like he's been pretty good at predicting how things will turn out for Trump. Maybe he's entirely wrong about why, of course.

I don't fault his making predictions; but an occams razor explanation seems FAR more compelling to me, that a character like trump provides an outlet for sentiments that haven't been well served by any _marginally_ viable political candidate. Combined with a boisterous personality (which dovetails well with what seems to be a rising anti-establishment sentiment in certain groups) and celebrity background, it fits neatly into America's tendency to lend more credence than might be deserved otherwise to stars, regardless of their individual domain specific merit. (c.f. other celebrity anti-vaxers and the recurring trend to have non-political notables on political talk shows)

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#84

Post by lmm »

kelukelugames wrote: post #81
lmm wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird. He talks a load of nonsense, and makes basic logical errors all the time, going as far as to recommend nonsense pseudoscience. At times I wonder if maybe he isn't actually that smart, and just got lucky somehow. But he makes accurate predictions. Consistently. You can't ignore that.

What accurate predictions has he made? Just the one about Trump's popularity? Adams claims Trump is popular because Trump is persuasive. Trump is certainly a good orator, but that's not the only reason. Do you remember when Trump spearheaded the birthers during the 2008 election? He knew he could channel working class frustration by appealing to xenophobia and racism.

He wrote a book of predictions that I read years ago. The big concrete prediction I remember from it was that health food would go mainstream, and it has. More recently/concretely I was going by http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calibr... .

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#85

Post by adenadel »

collyw wrote: post #72
adenadel wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Finance, statistics, biology, mathematics, energy, manufacturing, education, fitness... (not trying to be condescending here) I think software could be a great pairing with many other areas. I'm not sure if it's better to have software as a foundation or as second skill to add onto your area of expertise.

Primary skill, if you have ever had to look at the code from self taught bioinformaticians from biology backgrounds.

As a bioinformatician, I completely agree with you. My question is, which contributes more to the field? A specialist enabled by code, or a coder who has learned something of a second field?

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#86

Post by sangnoir »

putlake wrote: post #9

Scott Adams is very entertaining. He predicted Trump's staying power way back in the summer when everyone (including me) thought his candidacy was just a joke. In fact, he has predicted a landslide for Trump in the general election. He says it's based on his training as a hypnotist, which gives him an insight into the art of persuasion. Over the years I've learned many things from following Adams' blog. He recommende…

About that amazing Trump prediction: I have my doubts that Scott truly believed it himself. Quoting his thoughts, in 2011[1]:

> Most of those authors don't believe their predictions are likely to pan out. They're making calculated bets that in the unlikely event they guessed right, they will become famous. That's worth a fortune in future speaking gigs and book deals

1. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421130209/http://www.dilber...?

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#87

Post by Jordrok »

sangnoir wrote: post #86
putlake wrote: post #9

Scott Adams is very entertaining. He predicted Trump's staying power way back in the summer when everyone (including me) thought his candidacy was just a joke. In fact, he has predicted a landslide for Trump in the general election. He says it's based on his training as a hypnotist, which gives him an insight into the art of persuasion. Over the years I've learned many things from following Adams' blog. He recommende…

About that amazing Trump prediction: I have my doubts that Scott truly believed it himself. Quoting his thoughts, in 2011[1]: > Most of those authors don't believe their predictions are likely to pan out. They're making calculated bets that in the unlikely event they guessed right, they will become famous. That's worth a fortune in future speaking gigs and book deals 1. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421130209/http…

Another nice quote from that post:

"With the blog in particular, the explicit model is that I write down whatever dumbass theory pops into my head and try to sell it as God’s final word. Then my readers shred it in the comment section, or sometimes say it’s an old idea that’s already been done. Taken out of context, many of my blog posts and even my Wall Street Journal articles would look like the crazy rantings of a guy who thinks he has all the answers to fix the entire world. At best, that’s only half true."

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#88

Post by drumdance »

dhmholley wrote: post #19
m52go wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think people misread Scott. He's always had crazy ideas, but they've been well-articulated and always delivered with a healthy dose of humility. He doesn't take himself too seriously. Whereas many see him as a troll, I think he's a true contrarian in a sea of fashionable contrarians.

For a guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, he sure creates a lot of sockpuppets to argue with his detractors and sing his own praises.

He did that once a few years ago. He learned his lesson.

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#89

Post by drumdance »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #42
m52go wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think people misread Scott. He's always had crazy ideas, but they've been well-articulated and always delivered with a healthy dose of humility. He doesn't take himself too seriously. Whereas many see him as a troll, I think he's a true contrarian in a sea of fashionable contrarians.

"True contrarian" is just a politer name for troll, though. If you say unpopular things solely because they're unpopular, we have a word for that.

I don't think he does them just to be unpopular. He's just conducting thought experiments. He does like to tease his audience but so does Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution.

Re: Career Advice from Scott Adams (2007)

#90

Post by drumdance »

kelukelugames wrote: post #81
lmm wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird. He talks a load of nonsense, and makes basic logical errors all the time, going as far as to recommend nonsense pseudoscience. At times I wonder if maybe he isn't actually that smart, and just got lucky somehow. But he makes accurate predictions. Consistently. You can't ignore that.

What accurate predictions has he made? Just the one about Trump's popularity? Adams claims Trump is popular because Trump is persuasive. Trump is certainly a good orator, but that's not the only reason. Do you remember when Trump spearheaded the birthers during the 2008 election? He knew he could channel working class frustration by appealing to xenophobia and racism.

Back in the late 90s he predicted there would be a massive terror attack and that it would make airline travel suck even more.
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