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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#791

Post by mullingitover »

jmyeet wrote: post #783
prennert wrote: post #774

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.

I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (inclu…

Overall some great points here, but some don't make sense.

> The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea

Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea, so it's not clear to me why they'd need to invade Ukrainian territory to get one extra.

> Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders.

They've already voted three other Russia-bordering countries into NATO. They were practically falling over themselves to add Finland (along with Sweden)[1]

> The process in the Bundestag was "extremely fast," DW's political correspondent Nina Haase said.

> Haase said, citing unnamed sources, that Germany had intended to become the first country to ratify the accession, but other countries were faster. "But nevertheless, the signal remains the same... [Germany] is firmly behind the idea of Finland and Sweden joining NATO," she added.

You make the point that the US is insecure about any other system being successful, I think there's a case to be made that Russia similarly couldn't tolerate a prosperous democratic Ukraine sitting right next door and embarrassing them. You could also argue that, materially, Ukraine has natural resources that Russia just wants to steal.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-approves-finland-and-sweden-na...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#792

Post by SanjayMehta »

coryrc wrote: post #653
lpcvoid wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

Are you posting from Ukraine?

If he is, it won't be for very long. The most visible merc was a retired US colonel, he ran off home within weeks, got drunk on the War on The Rocks podcast and revealed the corruption and depravity of the "good guys."

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#793

Post by weslleyskah »

jmyeet wrote: post #786
weslleyskah wrote: post #780

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if China begins to take over much of the world's economic power, I don't think the rest of the world will accept Chinese culture in the face of Western social values. The wave of fascism is already rising in Europe, but it is still very much under control. Like the AfD political party in Germany.

Under control how? France has Macron siding with Le Pen to keep Melanchon out of power. The AfD's power is growing and we'll see if there exists a coalition that can form a government without them after the next election. Many expect Nigel Farrage to be the next Prime Minister of the UK. This is why people say fascism is capitalism in crisis. All of these countries are choosing fascism rather than any socialist movem…

> "Western social values" are a luxury easily abandoned when you can't afford your rent. Populist fascism is rising because people are increasingly desperate and there's no alternative because the centrists are united with the fascists to crush any leftist momentum.

I think this is the most important and crucial part of what you've said in here.

If you look, East germany former communists states were the biggest voters in favor of the AfD: Saxony and Thuringia. What I understand is that the left wing parties of today's society have forgotten about the 'conservative' socialism that focused on providing good education, food, housing and employment for the general population. Something that was always incorporated on conservative parties, like the CDU in Germany.

Following the disastrous political consequences of Merkel's 2015 immigration crisis, AfD entered the game with the fury from the German population. The alliance of the conservative CDU with the AfD makes a lot of sense.

I may be insane, but I feel there is always some kind of collective Jungian aura or desire among the general population, especially among the elders, for sane, conservative policies to control society and make life bearable. The writings of Jung are quite telling of this phenomenon.[1]

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mass_Psychology_of_Fascism

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#794

Post by yieldcrv »

ptx wrote: post #683
yieldcrv wrote: post #347

so nobody read the article and instead regurgitated pre-existing sentiment, while forgetting the golden rule of journalism: if an article ends in a question mark, the answer is no. > the greenback dominated 88% of traded FX volumes — close to record highs — while the Chinese yuan (CNY) made up just 7%, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). > Likewise, there is little sign of USD erosion…

That first sentence starts with "In 2022,", so presumably the numbers are different now, but I couldn't find anything in the article about how things have changed in the last four years.

You just have to be in it

Liquidity is atrocious as soon as you leave USD rails and are trying to move more than a few million (in notional usd terms), let alone billions

Downright terrible, its actually amazing how bad it is. “Finance” as infrastructure isn’t anywhere near finished and swapping the currency rails would be very hard

Its more than people just agreeing to use a different currency, which means its more than all traders and merchants dying, the next best currencies have structural problems. Their central banks trying to pump the market full of liquidity would destabilize those currencies far more than it would the USD doing the same thing

But I’m open to being impressed

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#795

Post by hnburnsy »

elAhmo wrote: post #522
hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

I can't believe people actually bring BRICS in serious discussions.

>BRICS has implemented initiatives that could reform the global financial system, such as the New Development Bank, the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, BRICS PAY and the BRICS Joint Statistical Publication. BRICS has also advanced de-dollarization to reduce the use of the U.S. dollar as reserve currency. In its first 15 years, BRICS has established almost 60 intragroup institutions and an extensive network including think tanks and dialogues.

>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

So what is the problem mentioning a future BRICS possibility while discussing de-dollarization. Not a challenge want to understand.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#796

Post by ragall »

arbuge wrote: post #574
mullingitover wrote: post #383

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…

Who would you say the Bismarck equivalent for the USA is/was?

What gave the US the power it's now throwing away was an array of successes that made the US an example of good governance for the entire world: New Deal, Bretton Woods agreeement, victory in WW2, Marshall Plan and NATO. There wasn't a single person in charge of that all, but I think 3 stand out:

* Henry Morgenthau Jr.: secretary of Treasury during Roosevelt, one of the main designers of the New Deal, of financing the US war machine during WW2, and also one of the US negotiators at the Bretton Woods conference

* George C. Marshall: chief of staff of the US Army, organized the victory in WW2, came up with the eponymous plan and carried it forward politically. secretary of State after the War

* Dean Acheson: main designer of the Marshall Plan and of NATO, and one of the US negotiators at the Bretton Woods conference. secretary of State after Marshall

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#797

Post by [deleted] »

porkbrain wrote: post #766
consumer451 wrote: post #274

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

He quotes Václav Havel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_the_Powerless

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#798

Post by renewiltord »

watwut wrote: post #775
renewiltord wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is a non-nuclear-weapon state. Our bombs are there yes, but if you use one of our bombs without our approval there will be hell to pay. An invasion of Greenland will be all but guaranteed. Whether Germany will retain its military the next day is questionable.

It is ok for Germany to detonate nukes on someone who attacked NATO. The approval of the aggressor is not necessary.

Germany will be glass if they tried. Berlin will glow in the dark. They wouldn't even consider it in government. Their planes wouldn't make it off the ground.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#799

Post by saulpw »

ActorNightly wrote: post #738
saulpw wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For us individually. For us collectively it was a horrible thing. We lost the means and incentive to produce anything durable, including a healthy, educated, sustainable society.

Yes... so lets vote someone in that does all the things towards creating a less healthy, less educated and less sustainable society. US was doing just fine btw. I know this because people like you blow the small issues way out of proportion, and the reason this haplens is that there is no real issues to worry about.

Whoa there. You're making quite some assumptions about me, it seems. I'm in no way advocating for the present administration, not in strategy nor in tactics nor in any other way.

I do think that the US was not "doing just fine", clearly, because our society was not healthy or educated or sustainable enough to avoid our present fate. It's easy to blame 'them' for all our woes, when we collectively made 'them'. Obviously we can't prevent every idiot and psychopath from existing, but we've certainly failed some 30% of our population if they fall for this crap. And this is the price we pay.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#800

Post by yoyohello13 »

Tadpole9181 wrote: post #642
jazzyjackson wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for sharing your perspective.

[dead]

I don’t like that these kinds of posts get flagged. If a post is praising ICE or Trump it should be highlighted and mocked, not flagged and deleted. People should see how batshit insane MAGA people are.
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